bushman9's Blog

The Oakland Raiders (2003-Present): A Case Study

By bushman9 | View all Posts
Posted Wednesday, October 14, 2009 12:08 PM

2 comments

Since their Super Bowl defeat in the 2002-03 season the Raiders have consistently been the worst NFL franchise year in and year out. In the past six seasons they have averaged a mere 4 wins per year which is especially poor considering the league is designed to create parity. In the past three weeks they have lost to the Broncos by 20, the Houston Texans by 23 and the Giants by 37 while scoring a respective 3, 6 and 7 points. JaMarcus Russell is leading the offense with a Ryan Leaf like 47.1 passer rating (Leaf's actual career rating was 50.) One thing that has been constant for the Raiders is there propensity to burn your money, especially in their home games. As you can see from the numbers below the Raiders have only covered more than 2 home spreads one time since 2003. However, the Raiders have only been a double digit home underdog one time (last year they were 0-1 ATS.) If you straight up faded the Raiders for the last six seasons you would be 58-37 (61%) ATS and if you faded at home you'd be a mindblowing 34-47 (73%) ATS. This research has led to me ask several questions:

Question 1: Why has it taken the linesmakers so long to catch up with how bad the Raiders are (six years and counting)?
Question 2: Since the Raiders have been double digit dogs only once in the past 6 years have the linesmakers finally caught up? or
Question 3: Are the linesmakers still underestimating how bad the Raiders are this season? Can it be possible the Raiders are worse this year than ever?

Statistics:

Raiders Season Record:
08-09 (5-11)
07-08 (2-14)
06-07 (4-12)
05-06 (4-12)
04-05 (5-11)
03-04 (4-12)

Raiders home ats:
08-09 2-6 ats
07-08 2-6 ats
06-07 3-5 ats
05-06 2-6 ats
04-05 2-6 ats
03-04 2-5-1 ats

Raiders home dd underdogs:
08-09 0-1 ats
07-08 Never dd home dog
06-07 Never dd home dog
05-06 Never dd home dog
04-05 Never dd home dog
03-04 Never dd home dog

Raiders overall ats:
08-09 7-9 ats
07-08 6-10 ats
06-07 6-10 ats
05-06 5-11 ats
04-05 6-10 ats
03-04 3-8-1 ats

Year to Date:
Record 1-4
ats 2-3
home ats 1-1

Report Abuse

2 comments

Post A Comment

bushman9 says:

10/14/09 12:27PM

Some quotes from after the Raiders/Giants game:

"I'm concerned for this

football team, not just JaMarcus (Russell, quarterback)," Cable said.

"I'm concerned with this football team in that I have so much faith in

them, I believe so strongly in them."

...I understand you have to believe in your players to be a successful coach and can see Cable saying this after the Denver game but how do you say this with a straight face after the Texans and Giants games?

"We're underachieving as a

football team," Raiders cornerback Nnamdi Asomugha said. "We've got so

much talent. You hear the guys after the game, every team comes up to

us, 'Man, you guys are probably the most-talented (team) we've played

against'."

...that's pretty funny if he believes that.

"We couldn't stop anything,"

Raiders defensive lineman Richard Seymour said. "That's a bad feeling,

and they're running whatever plays they want to (run). Third or fourth

quarter, they had their backups in the game and they were still doing

what they wanted to offensively. So, it's really no excuse for that."

...yeah maybe they gave up towards the end of that game but backups should not dominate a first team.

"It's got to be a brighter day," Russell said. "At the end of that tunnel, it's got to be a brighter light."

...reminds me of the song lyrics, "Ooh-oo child, things are gonna get easier, Ooh-oo child, things'll get brighter."

howzuck says:

10/14/09 12:50PM

You make valid points, esp. on the longevity, but I believe the more current futility of the Chiefs, Lions, and Rams deserves honorable mention. I don't have the stats handy, but I believe each of these teams has won less than 5 of their last 35 games. I think Lions in their winless season in 2008 were still 7-9 ATS. Lines always catch up. Raiders are 14-15 point underdogs at home this weekend. I do think the all-time record point-spread may be threatened this season (that was SF as 24 point fave againt Cincy in 1993, any one remember this one?), there are enough really horrible teams around who will even play worse that they do now as season moves along.

Add your response:	You must be logged in to post a comment. Please note that the blogger has the option of reviewing all comments before they are displayed to the public. Your comment may not be published immediately.

Profile

User:	bushman9
Joined:	March 2008
Location:	New York
Team:
Occupation:

bushman9's Blog

The Oakland Raiders (2003-Present): A Case Study

Profile

Recent Posts

Archive

Categories