No. 13 Miami (1-0) at No. 2 Ohio State (1-0)

No. 13 Miami (1-0) at No. 2 Ohio State (1-0)

Away:  Miami [1-0 ATS]
Home:  Ohio State[1-0 ATS]

Game Time: 3:40 PM
Stadium: Ohio Stadium

The Buckeyes are playing at home where early on the have had trouble beating the likes of Navy (22 point favorites and maybe they were looking ahead to USC) and Iowa when they where 16.5 point faves. The last two years they have lost to both Texas and USC @ home. I expected this line to be closer to 5-7 points in favor of the Buckeyes, however, the line opened at 10 and everyone and their brother jumped on it and the line is down to 8.

What I have learned over the last several years of betting on college football is that the books never give us gifts, but they do need a few weeks before they start adjusting lines and making it more difficult for us to pick a winner. IMO the Buckeyes will come out hard and fast and surprise everyone with a double digit win. I would wait a day or two and see if the line keeps coming down. Even though I like the Bucks to win by 10-13...I'd like to grab the line at 6.5 or 7.

Ill post my final play Saturday morning. Best of luck!

** Don't Over Analyze This Game ***

I've read a lot of posts saying the Saints or Brees deserve this Super Bowl. No one deserves anything, EVER! Championships are earned and won by the better team that day, not who played better the entire season or what player has had a better career.

I also read a lot of posts talking about the Saints/Vikings game and how the Saints should have won that game by a couple TD's. Sure, you could say that but, it was Vikings offense that turned the ball over and over again, however, it was their defense that kept them in the game. Are the Colts DEF capable of doing that?

The two questions you need to ask are:

1. Can the Saints DEF stop Manning from being Super Bowl MVP? If the Colts do win this game, it will be Manning who pushed the Colts to a victory. The Colts, like the Saints, have many offensive weapons, but going into the game Manning is the better QB.

2. Are the Colts Defense capable of keeping the Saints to UNDER 24 points? IMO this is a crucial number for the Colts defense. If the Colts DEF is able to keep Brees and the Saints offense to 24 points then they will win this game and most likely cover the 5 point spread. The last thing the Colts want is a shoot out....I don't believe their DEF is capable of winni... [More]

*** BVPICKS - TOTAL OF THE DAY ***

No. 21 Pittsburgh (16-5) at No. 6 West Virginia (17-3)

Pitt hasn't scored less than 60 points all year. WV on the other-hand averages 73.3 points per game at home. In the Mountaineers last 5 home games they are averaging 73.6 ppg while allowing 65. The OVER is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings in West Virginia. I don't see things changing in tonight's match up.

IMO the total will be between 131-138.

OVER 128

Here's why you take Central Michigan and UNDER...

Troy as averaged over 40 points in their last 6 wins and they scored 20 on Arkansas. This team can put up points and that's why the line is where it's at for this game.

This is the same reason the total is at 63. In Troys last 7 games the winning team has scored over 40 point and the total has been over 60 in each game. Most gamblers will look at both of these situations and take Troy and the Over, but its for this reason I will take Central Michigan -3 and Under 63. Good Luck.


CENTRAL MICHIGAN -3
UNDER 63

*** BVPICKS - GOY!! BUCKEYES! BUCKEYES! GOY! ***

Lay it and lay it big. There will be no mercy in this one. The Buckeyes DEF is outstanding and will hold Iowa to 10-13 points. Buckeyes on the other hand will score 4+ TD's. Ohio State's DEF will force several turnovers against a young, inexperienced QB.Remember folks, this is the DEF that held a powerful Penn State offense to 7 points. Iowa's loss last week allows Ohio State to control its own Big Ten destiny, so expect a very hostile crowd. It all adds up to Vandenberg making some mistakes that allow Ohio State to win in relatively comfortable fashion.

I am making it my largest play of the year. Iowa will have no chance here. This is a sucker bet, the books want you to take Iowa. Buckeyes win this one by 25. Final score OSU 38 - Iowa 13.

Buckeyes -16.5

*** BVPICKS - Friday Night NCAAF ***

*** NCAAF Friday Night Football ***

Cincinnati Bearcats -9.5

Temple Owls -5.5

Good Luck!

*** BVPICKS - Thursday Night Football ***

Chicago (4-4) at San Francisco (3-5)

I didn't have much time for a write up, but my play is posted below. However, I feel Alex Smith will have plenty of time to throw today and the Niners have a better set of receivers and a TE. Olsen will not perform like he did last week. San Fran will set up the run game and I expect to see Gore rush for 110+ and 2 TD's. I expect this game to be close late but San Fran will cover by 8-10 points.

Prediction:

49ers: 31
Bears: 23

San Francisco -3 (-120)
OVER 43

Good Luck!

*** BVPICKS - MNF MUST PLAY GAME ***

Pittsburgh (5-2) at Denver (6-1)

The Broncos are a public favorite this year. After trading Jay Cutler in the off season and Brandon Marshall sitting out until the start of the season, expectations were low for this team. After starting 6-0 the Broncos are now a fan favorite. The Broncos lead the all-time season series 13-6-1 and hold an impressive 7-2-1 edge in Denver, including three straight wins. The last Denver win vs the Steelers at home was a Sunday Night Game in 2007 after a Pittsburgh bye week. The Broncos were 2-6 in their previous eight home games before beating the Steelers by a last second FG by Jason Elam. These trends tend to favor the Denver Broncos but what can't be overlooked is the simple fact that Broncos are 7-17-1 ATS in their last 25 home games and that the Road team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings. What was overlooked is how well Big Ben played on the road in this matchup. Roethlisberger was 24-35 290 yards and 4 TD's

The Broncos offense could not get anything going vs the Ravens last week and they face a similar defense this week. The Broncos were 3-13 on 3rd down conversions and will need to improve this week if they expect to get the W. The Steelers are favored because they are running the ball better with Rashard Mendenhall averaging 4.5 yard per carry and I expect the Steelers to run the ball and wear down the Broncos DEF. On the flip side, the Steelers, who haven't allowed a 100-yard rusher in their las... [More]

*** BVPICKS MUST PLAY GAME - GIANTS @ EAGLES ***

N.Y. Giants (5-2) at Philadelphia (4-2)The Giants are suddenly looking vulnerable after two losses to good NFC Teams. Even after these two losses the public is still picking the Giants in this NFC East rivalry game. The Giants five victories were against Washington, Dallas, Tampa Bay, Kansas City and Oakland. The only winning team in the bunch were the Cowboys and the Giants needed a four turnover advantage to win that game by just two points. The last two weeks New York lost badly to the Saints and Cardinals, two teams that can put points on the board. Considering the amount of points Philly is putting up this year, it could be a long afternoon for the Giants.

Defensively Philadelphia has allowed more than 17 points just once all season. Only one of their last five opponents they faced at home tallied more than 14 points. This is a team with the better players on both sides of the ball yet they are a slight home underdog here. The Eagles lost to the Giants at home each of the past four seasons but this year Philadelphia is the better team. I read a lot of posts about how poorly the Eagles play when Westbrook has played. In past years this might be true, but this is a new Eagles team with LeSean McCoy and IMO Philly doesn't miss a step. Offensively the Eagles will be the best team on the field.

One trend that stands out regardless of where this game is played is the underdog is 9-0 ATS in their last 9 meetings. Considering the Eagles are playing at home... [More]

*** TONIGHT'S MUST PLAY GAME: USC @ OREGON ***

No. 4 Southern California (6-1) at No. 12 Oregon (6-1)I had a must play game this afternoon that I posted taking the Cincinnati Bearcats -15 vs Syracuse and I have one more must play for tonight's USC/Oregon match up.

The Trojans' defense looked extremely vulnerable last week, surrendering nearly 500 yards of total offense and 36 points against Oregon State. IMO Barkley's inexperience might be costly at times inside Autzen Stadium tonight. USC has been vulnerable against the pass all year and I expect Oregon to open up their passing game and put up one helluva fight tonight. The Ducks have been strong defending the pass this season, and IMO will continue the effort this week.

Both teams played a crappy WASHINGTON STATE team but the DUCKS pounded the crap out of them winning 52-6, while USC couldn't do crap after scoring 20 in first qtr and won 27-6.

Both teams also played at a horrific WASHINGTON squad...Oregon won 43-19 while USC was upset 13-16 a week after their late win at Ohio State. Who again, IMO, is overrated each year.

The key factors in this game:  Its on National TV @ Oregon, Oregon is a home dog when, IMO they should be favored in this spot. USC has not being very impressive all year, now you put them in another hostile environment. The books never lose money with the amount of PUBLIC bettors on them.

Prediction: Oregon 27 - USC 24

OREGON ML +130

Best of luck!
... [More]

*** BVPICKS MUST PLAY OF THE DAY ****

No. 7 Cincinnati (7-0) at Syracuse (3-4)

This is a must play game for any serious bettor. This is a great spot for Cincinnati's no huddle offense. Syracuse ranks 115th in pass DEF allowing more than 270 yards through the air. Cincinnati's no-huddle, spread offense did not miss a beat last Saturday behind Collaros, who went 15 of 17 for 253 yards and three touchdowns and he added 52 rushing yards in a 41-10 win over Louisville. Carrier Dome or not, look for the same high powered offensive output by the Bearcats.

Cincinnati is 65-4 since 2001 when scoring over 30 points. The Orange (3-4, 0-2) already have lost twice at home in league play, allowing 34 points in each defeat. Today I expect the Bearcats to put up 38-45 points on this weak secondary and move to 5-0 on the road.

BVPICKS: Cincinnati -15

*** Friday Night Special - 2 Keys to the game ***

The keys to tonight's game:

1. If Rutgers continues to defend the run as well as it has this season, Army will face a difficult task. The Scarlet Knights rank 11th nationally in rushing defense, allowing just 91.5 yards per game, and have held three of their last four opponents under 50 yards rushing.


2. The Black Knights have not scored more than one offensive touchdown in four consecutive games. In the past four weeks, they are 11 of 14 inside their opponent’s 20-yard line but have scored just four TDs total. IMO they don't score on tonight at all.

Prediction: Rutgers 24 - Army 9

BVPICKS: Rutgers -11

*** BVPICKS : SATURDAY NCAAF 2 PLAY ***

This week NCAAF: 5-0 on posted plays.  The following are the only two games I am playing tomorrow.

Oklahoma Sooners vs Texas Longhorns

Last year's shootout IMO will become a defensive struggle this year. I doubt either team will have much success running the ball. Shipley will is a game breaker and may even return a punt for a TD in this game.

I'm going with UT because the Horns have more reliable receivers and don't have the same kinds of question marks on their O-line that the Sooners do.

Prediction:  Texas 31 - 20

BVPicks: Texas -3


USC Trojans at Notre Dame Fighting Irish

The Irish have improved quite a bit over the past two years, but I think the gap between these two programs is still pretty big. ND's O-line, which ranks 62nd in the country in sacks allowed, will have issues with the Trojans' top-ranked pass rush. Unless the Trojans are plagued by turnovers, I think will cover this one rather easily.

Prediction: USC 38 - Notre Dame 17

BVPicks: USC -10

*** FRIDAY NCAA FOOTBALL ***

Pittsburgh Panthers at Rutgers Scarlet Knights

Pitt has put up a surprising number of points this year because of QB Bill Stull's steady play and the emergence Dion Lewis at RB. The Panthers also have an excellent D-line. The Scarlet Knights really haven't been tested in a month since Cincy drilled them at home. I don't think their offense will be able to do enough to win despite the home-field edge.

Prediction: Pittsburgh 28 - Rutgers 17

Pick: Pitt -3

*** BVPICKS - NCAAF PLAY OF THE DAY ***

Cincinnati Bearcats at South Florida Bulls

Tony Pike and the Bearcats face off against a potent USF pass rush tonight. Pike, however, has made excellent decisions throughout the season, throwing 13 touchdowns and just three INT’s. USF ranks ninth in the nation in pass defense and 20th in sacks. The Bulls have been very shaky on special teams, and Cincy has an even better pass rush. I'll go with a road win and expect B.J. Daniels to make too many mistakes.

Prediction: Cincinnati 27 - South Florida 20

Pick: Cincinnati -2.5

*** Monday Night Money Maker ***

Greenbay @ Minnesota

The Vikings are atop the standings in the NFC North with a 3-0 record that includes a dramatic come from behind victory last week against the San Francisco 49ers. In that game, Favre threw the go ahead touchdown with just two seconds remaining.

QB Aaron Rogers played well in his game last week against the Rams throwing two touchdowns and numerous deep balls. I feel that these teams are evenly matched and this one will go right down to the wire with the Packers finding a way to win it in the closing seconds.

One of the things novice gamblers get caught up when betting NFL games is the carryover effect. One would think that the Vikings will be riding high, but in truth there is no carryover effect. Everybody is a paid professional and momentum just does not propel teams to victory like it does in college football.

Green Bay is on several positive ATS runs, including 15-5-1 on the road, 3-1-1 in October, 5-1 as an underdog, 7-1 against NFC North foes and 4-1 against teams with winning records.
 
Minnesota comes into this as a betting risk, currently on ATS slides of 0-4 at home, 0-4 in Week 4 games, 1-4 against the NFC, 1-4 in October, 2-6 against division rivals and 3-11 after a SU win.

The Packers are on “over” runs of  20-7-1 overall, 10-3-1 on the road, 20-6-1 against NFC squads, 7-3 against division rivals and 5-2-1 as a road ‘dog. Conversely, the Vikings are on “under” streaks of ... [More]

*** Giants @ Chiefs ***

I am not concerned about the Giants overlooking KC with Coughlin as head coach. The Kansas City offensive line is the probably the worst in the NFL, ok maybe the second worst behind Cleveland, and the are going up against one of the best DL's in the NFL, not to mention a ball hawking secondary that Cassel will no doubt hurry passes into, and KC is without best WR Bowe this week with injury. KC traded or waived 2 more players this week and got TE Pope from Arizona to try and get a few verticle plays going with his size, doubt he is ready to know all the plays yet, been in KC about 5 days. The Giants are 21-5 ATS their last 26 road games. I admit that NY is on their third straight road game, BUT they are one of the NFLs best road teams...LAY THE POINTS!

Giants -9

*** Jets @ Saints - Over ***

The Saints have been an automatic over play in 2009. The total is under fifty and playing this game in a dome is just too good to pass up. This is the best team in the league offensively and they are playing a team that has looked great under rookie QB Mark Sanchez. We will not worry if the Saints can cover this touchdown spread in just collect with the over, as both teams reach the twenties in scoring. New Orleans 27, New York 24.

OVER 45

*** Oklahoma @ Miami ***

Landry Jones has helped the Sooners win by a combined score of 109-0 the last two weeks against Idaho State and Tulsa, but that wasn't like going into Miami to face a Hurricanes team hungry for a victory after being embarrassed 31-7 at Virginia Tech last weekend.

Hurricanes sophomore QB Jacory Harris suffered some growing pains against the Hokies, going 9 of 25 for 150 yards with an interception and a lost fumble, but I think that experience will benefit him today against Oklahoma. And Miami's offensive line should be able to provide enough support for the 'Canes to penetrate the Sooners' defense.

Miami is 8-1 at home vs. nonconference BCS teams, and have won by an average of 21 points. It is also 5-1 ATS as an underdog. I'm not saying the 'Canes win today, but I do believe they stay within a touchdown of the Sooners, especially with OU starting a freshman QB making his first start on the road. Take Miami to cover the points.

Miami +7.5

*** Ohio State @ Indiana ***

You have to go back to 1988 to find the Hoosiers’ last win versus the Buckeyes. Ohio State has been a powerful team just about every year and Indiana would have glimpses of success, then fall back. What is amazing is the absolute dominance Ohio State has had on this Indiana team. The Hoosiers have not scored more than 17 points against the Buckeyes since 1991! The Buckeyes, on the other hand, have scored 30+ in seven of the last eight meetings. The Hoosiers, over that same period, have been held to an average of eight points per game. The Buckeyes have also won 15 straight on the road in the Big-10.

The Buckeyes aren't just winning Big-10 games they are also 23-8 ATS in their last 31 against conference foes, including 17-5 ATS on the road in conference play. The Hoosiers are cash-poor as a dog of 10+ coming in with just a 4-10 ATS mark. The Buckeyes have covered the last four against the Hoosiers. Look for Ohio State to make it five straight.

Buckeyes -18

::: BVPICKS - Thursday Night College Football :::

Oregon @ Boise State

Away:  Oregon [0-0 ATS]
Home:  Boise State [0-0 ATS]

Game Time: 10:15 PM
Stadium: Bronco Stadium

Last year, Boise went into Eugene as 10-point underdogs and upset the Ducks 37-32. But you know what they say about paybacks! In last year's game, Oregon was forced to use three quarterbacks due to injuries sustained against Boise State. That, however, shouldn't be a problem on Thursday. And, speaking of quarterbacks, Oregon has a great one, in junior Jeremiah Masoli.

 

Oregon, itself, is 23-12 ATS its last 35 as underdogs, including 9-1 ATS vs. non-conference foes. The Oregon Ducks are 18-1 SU vs. WAC opponents and their only lost was to the Broncos last season in Week 4 at home, when they lost as a -10 point home favorite and the final scored was 37-32. But, let’s remember Oregon was used 3 QB’s. Take the points.

 

Oregon +3 (-110)

 

 

South Carolina @ North Carolina State

 

Away:  South Carolina [0-0 ATS]

Home:  North Carolina State [0-0 ATS]

 

Game Time: 7:00 PM

Stadium: Carter Finley Stadium

 

[More]

::: Can the Cavs win this series?? :::

I don't have much faith in the Cavs but...

 

Without question they can win tonight's game, the thing is they need to show some dominance and win comfortably. Not making last second shots with one second to go. They need to have this win wrapped up with several minutes to play. This game could be the confidence builder they need to go into game 6. With that said...

 

Winning game 5 in a comfortable, dominate, fashion will provide the Cavs with the confidence and swagger they will (and must have) need to be competitive in game 6. Let's be honest...the Cavs are one of 2 or 3 teams in the league that can pull off this comeback. But, as I mentioned earlier, they need to play well tonight. Tonight's game will be key for the Cavs. They played Orlando very close at home in game 4 and going into half time had an 8 point lead. It's not out of the question they can win game 6 but it would be very difficult. With that said....

 

Game 7 will be a battle and the Cavs and Lebron would win this game. No way would they lose this game after such an outstanding comeback to even the series. Having the opportunity to play 2 or 3 at home is huge. If they were on the road in 2 of 3 of this series they would be finished.

 

We'll see just how good the rest o... [More]

::: I hate the Celtics, but... :::

They are the right play tonight. They are more experienced and have shown they don't need KG. Orlando has shown they really aren't that good and struggle against a team playing without their best player.

 

Orlando has  dropped three of its last four SU and ATS and returns home where it lost on a buzzer-beater in Game 4,  losing 95-94 as a five-point favorite. The Magic are just 3-2 (2-3 ATS) at home in the playoffs. On the otherhand, Boston has now won two in a row for the first time since Games 2 and 3 of its first-round series against the Bulls. The Celtics are 2-3 (3-1-1 ATS) on the road this postseason.
 
Boston lost the final two regular-season games with Orlando, then dropped Game 1 of this series, but the Celtics have since rebounded to win three of the last four meetings SU and ATS. They’re also 2-2 (3-1 ATS) against the Magic in Florida since January. However, the host is still 24-11 ATS in the last 35 matchups between these two.
 
The Celtics are just 4-11 ATS in their last 15 conference semifinal contests, but they are on positive ATS runs of 5-2 overall, 8-2-1 on the road, 14-5 on Thursdays, 4-1-1 on the road against teams with a winning home record and 5-2 after getting a day off. Orlando is on ATS slides of 5-12 overall, 3-8 after a non-cover and 4-13 against the Atlantic Division, but it is 49-21-1 ATS in its last 71 after a straight-up loss and 6-1 ATS ... [More]

::: BVPICKS - ROCKETS @ LAKERS :::

Houston has won 11 of its last 16 (9-7 ATS) while the Lakers are 13-4 in their last 17 (9-8 ATS). The Rockets are 2-3 (3-2 ATS) on the road this postseason, including a 100-92 upset victory as an 8.5 point underdog in Game 1 in Los Angeles last week. The Lakers are 4-1 (2-3 ATS) inside the Staples Center in the playoffs.
 
Including this playoff series, the Lakers are 6-2 SU and ATS versus the Rockets this season and 9-5 ATS in the last 14 meetings overall. Furthermore, Los Angeles has cashed in four of the last five clashes in La La Land.

 

Look for the Lakers to be more aggressive at home tonight, but the Rockets will be hungry. The Lakers won’ t take the Rockets lightly again and will get the victory in Game 5 at the Staples Center, but no blowout match up. Take the 12 points and the Rockets! The Lakers could be without Lamar Odom.

 

The total for tonight’s match up is 198 and this game should go UNDER. Consider that in their last six meetings overall - all since March 11 - the Under is on a 4-2 run and has come in 2 of the last 3 games in Los Angeles. In that 6-game stretch these two have totaled, on average, 193.5 points per. In their last 3 games in L.A. the teams have totaled, on average, 191.6 points per game.

Also keep in mind that the Under is 6-2  for the Rockets and it has come in 5 of the Lakers last 7 gam... [More]

::: The James Gang Sweep :::

Is this the end of the road for the Hawks? It just might be, but there is sure no more pressure on them, down 0-3. Atlanta will come out and play with reckless abandon and tighter DEF tonight...mark my words. The Cavs, however, will sweep Atlanta tonight but many of you are asking if they will the cover? Well, 15 of 18 teams have completed the sweep when up 3-0 in a series and those same teams have been a terrific 12-5-1 ATS.

 

I believe the Hawks will play a competitive game tonight and I have this game capped around 8 points. The lead will be much larger at times but as we have all seen this post season once the clock begins to wind down the score is a lot closer than what it actually was. Teams begin missing easy buckets and eventually the losing team is with-in single digits and a backdoor cover. Don't be suprised if this happens tonight.

 

It seems everyone and there brother is jumping on the Cavs the same way everyone took LA yesterday. This is a slightly different scenario because I don't see the Hawks jumping out to a huge lead but I do see them playing a tight game. They do not want to get blown out in their final game of the season.

 

I have made a lot of money on the Cavs this season but there comes a time when you have to come off the money train and become... [More]