I've read a lot of posts saying the Saints or Brees deserve
this Super Bowl. No one deserves anything, EVER! Championships are earned and
won by the better team that day, not who played better the entire season or what
player has had a better career.
I also read a lot of posts talking about the Saints/Vikings
game and how the Saints should have won that game by a couple TD's. Sure, you
could say that but, it was Vikings offense that turned the ball over and over
again, however, it was their defense that kept them in the game. Are the Colts
DEF capable of doing that?
The two questions you need to ask are:
1. Can the Saints DEF stop Manning from being Super Bowl
MVP? If the Colts do win this game, it will be Manning who pushed the Colts to
a victory. The Colts, like the Saints, have many offensive weapons, but going
into the game Manning is the better QB.
2. Are the Colts Defense capable of keeping the Saints to
UNDER 24 points? IMO this is a crucial number for the Colts defense. If the
Colts DEF is able to keep Brees and the Saints offense to 24 points then they
will win this game and most likely cover the 5 point spread. The last thing the
Colts want is a shoot out....I don't believe their DEF is capable of winning
the type of game. The Saints have been in those games and their DEF has been
pushed to the extreme and they have been able to pull out the W.
IMO the 5 point spread is meaningless unless you’re the
Book. They like not having to move the line from 3-4 or 6-7 but moving it from
5 to 4.5 or 5.5 means nothing to them. Again, it’s my opinion, but I believe
the Colts either win by 7-11 points or the Saints hang in their till the end
and lose by 3 or 4 points. Right now, I personally believe the Colts win this
game 31-24. But, as I say that, I can also see the Saints driving down the
field with the score 31-21 and with 4 minutes to go the Saints are looking at
scoring a TD to move the score to 31-28.
In closing, I think most trends for either team should be
thrown out the window. I don't care about how many points these teams scored on
the road or at home. What their margin of victory was on the road or at home. I
also don't care if the trends these teams put up a ton of points during the
regular season. I am interested in knowing that the 6 Super Bowls with Totals
over 50 are 4-2 for the UNDER though.
I haven't pulled the trigger on the spread as of this post,
but I did take UNDER 57 for the total. Best of luck with your play.