calinreddog's Blog

Is the over/under predictable in baseball games?

By calinreddog | View all Posts
Posted Sunday, July 20, 2008 07:04 PM   7 comments
The last four days I lost a lot of bets on the MLB total lines and that made me wonder if the game total can be really predicted.
I went back and took a closer look at the over/under bets I just lost but everything seemed all right.
When you have 2 starters with WHIP over 1.7 starting against batters that are hitting 0.260-0.280, no wind during a gameday what can you expect?
The same thing happens when you have pitchers with low WHIP's going against teams averaging less than 0.250 and the total goes high in all three games of a series.
That made me decide to stop betting the total on baseball games because it's far away from predictability.
I think is very difficult to predict the total in a game where the runs can happen more than one at a time, so they don't follow the laws of poisson distribution.
Do you know a handicapper that can hit more than 55% totals over the long run?
Or my approach is wrong?
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Sunbeam says:
07/20/08 10:15PM
Reddog, I am fairly new into this myself (about 2 months) and my observation about baseball totals is that there are many more variables than just the WHIP and batting avg. You also need to look at these

 

1. Where do they play? Is the park pitcher friendly?

2. How is the team batting avg versus RHP or LHP

3. Who is available for relieve and what are their ERA and WHIP

4. How did these 2 teams fared against another historically

5. How did the team performed in the last 3 or 5 games. Are they in a funk? or are they hot?

6. If you are going to bet under, then IMO 5 innings bet is much safer because most likely you won't have to deal with the bullpen.

 

This is all got so far. Maybe some other experienced capper may want to share their thoughts. GL.

DiverRon says:
07/20/08 10:58PM
Don't forget to look at the umpires when looking at totals!

VERY IMPORTANT! There are umps who have bigger/smaller strike zones and call more/less overs/unders!

 

jfairbanks says:
07/21/08 12:40AM
great thoughts guys. but i tend to agree that there are just too many variables when it comes to capping an O/U. sometimes its best to look at it from a HOT or NOT standpoint and not look too into it. because honestly totals are like flipping a coin this year haha. 

 

go with your gut thoughts. dont sell yourself on something you may feel isnt right

bigbozo says:
07/21/08 12:03PM
Reddog, there is some good advice here, but theyleft out one of the most important. Are the Covers experts picking the total for the game you like? If they like the same side, there is a high probability the game will lose.  If they pick against it, you have a high probability for a winner.

 

However, this is not true with some of the good total handicappers here. Find one to tail and see what they like on the game you like. If they agree, then it is a much stronger play since you both are using different ways to handicap. If they disagree, then it is weaker and it is best to cut down your play or pass! (I do not suggest switching plays unless the reasons are overwhelming!)  If you look at too many handicappers you will only get too many opinions

and be confused because there will be people on both sides.

britnney says:
07/21/08 02:17PM
All great points here..This is what Covers forums should be about..Cisco, good tip at Wagerline..Based on these tips, like Blue Jays/Orioles over 10..
britnney says:
07/21/08 02:20PM
Though I saw a stat where 'Stros are 0-6 at home when o/u is 10?..Can`t find it now..Will research..Still like 'Stros/Bucs over 10.5...
Sunbeam says:
07/24/08 01:23AM

Exactly where in wagerline that you can find these kind of trends?

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User: calinreddog
Joined: May 2008
Location: Romania
Team: Chicago Cubs
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