capperintuition's Blog

Posted Thursday, March 01, 2012 10:40 AM

NBA Thursday.. 0-2 yesterday.. 60-41 YTD (59.4%) +18.45 units

I started tracking my YTD units since I am now posting halftime hedges.  My YTD record will not reflect anything but pre-game wagers that can be tracked officially, however, my YTD units will reflect the benefit from my halftime hedges.  Yesterday I was 0-2 but only lost -1.55 units because of the Knicks -9 halftime hedge.  I am 3-0-1 on halftime hedges in the second half of the season.

Bad beat in the Sixers game where Westbrook collected an offensive rebound off of a Durant missed FT with 4 seconds left.. got fouled and hit both FT’s to put OKC up by 4.  Yes, a PG grabbed an offensive rebound off a missed FT, you read that right.

Cavs game wasn’t really a bad beat, because they missed the cover by 7 points, but they had a commanding lead at halftime just to be outscored 71-42 in the second half.  At least the commanding halftime lead allowed us to hedge it with Knicks -9 to sell half of our risk.

Portland Trailblazers +5

Mathematically projected score: Heat 96 Blazers 100

This line is indicative of how the Heat have become the most publicly-backed teams in the NBA.  This has something to do with the fact that they have covered of their past 10 spreads.  They now sit at 18-16 ATS on the year, before the last 10 games they were only 9-15 ATS because Vegas had them supremely over-valued in a n effort to thwart that huge public backing.  It is obvious by this line that Ve... [More]

Posted Wednesday, February 29, 2012 11:38 AM

NBA Wednesday.. 3-0 yesterday.. 60-39 YTD (60.1%)

Back above the 60% mark after a 3-0 night, thanks to very soft card.  We took  push on the Mavs second half hedge, some may have hit the middle because the Mavs line dropped from -10 to -9.5 so hopefully some caught that middle by 0.5 to make it a 1.5-unit win.

As always, I will post halftime hedges via twitter.  So follow me if you are interested in that aspect of my plays, I’m 2-0-1 the past 3 days on hitting middles with halftime hedges.  @mrchandman

Philadelphia 76'ers +3.5

Mathematically projected score: Thunder 94 76'ers 96

This soft line is thanks to the Sixers skid right before break.  You should rarely ever get a quality team like the Sixers as 3.5 dogs in their home arena.  In fact, this is only the 3rd time all season that they are catching points at home.  The Sixers have laid 2 points to both the Bulls and Heat at home (they destroyed the Bulls 98-82.)  Now they are laying above the semi-key number of 3, and the public is all over the Thunder.

As I have stated before, studies have shown that home dogs cover ~4% more spreads than road teams and favorites.  It should be inconceivable for anyone to bet against a home dog laying the most points they have all season.  I attribute this soft spread partially due to the fact that the Thunder have more stars than the Sixers.. Philly’s only player that nears stardom is Andre Iguodala, but he is far fro... [More]

Posted Monday, February 27, 2012 08:06 PM

NBA Tuesday.. 57-39 YTD (59.4%)

Last Thursday extended my streak of  .500 or above nights to 9-straight.  That streak includes 3 100% nights, but I still consider it a bit of a cold streak.  I did turn Thursday into a winning night by hitting my second-straight middle in as many nights, with a 15.5-point middle that odds makers allowed us to hit on the Hawks/Magic game.  As I’ve mentioned, I will release all halftime hedge bets for my official plays via twitter, follow if you need help tracking and assessing hedges on the plays I post.

3 plays for Tuesday:

Cleveland Cavaliers +3.5

Mathematically projected score: Celtics 91 Cavaliers 93

Looks like the public is bullish on the Celtics coming out of break.  Maybe everyone has forgotten the Celtics forgettable start to the season.  I’m expecting to read a lot of people say the Celtics are “rested” so that is the reason they will cover.  Ah, the public and their futile attempts to explain why they make bandwagon bets on road favorites.

The fact of the matter is that the Cavs are competitive enough to be favored in most of their games at home, why would this Boston team be an exception?  A good way to evaluate this line is by looking at the UTA/SAC game tomorrow, Sacramento is laying 2 at home against a Jazz team that is quite similar to this Celtics team, I actually rank the Jazz a bit higher than the Celtics.  Cleveland and Sacramento are my #23 ... [More]

Posted Thursday, February 23, 2012 01:50 PM

NBA Thursday.. 1-1 yesterday.. 56-38 YTD (59.5%)

Tough showing by the Hawks yesterday, but the isolated incidence of a blowout always boosts the stock of the team that was on the wrong end of it.  It’s been an interesting run, it’s been 8 days since I last had a day at less than 50%.. but only 3 of those 8 days were winning.  TONS of breaking even going on.

Atlanta Hawks +4.5

Mathematically projected score: Magic 88 Hawks 90

The public is pushing this line way up.  Likely many of the same people that took the Hawks last night are fading them tonight, which is always a terrible strategy, you cannot revenge bet and expect to win in the long run.  My reasoning for taking the Hawks is simple, they are a competitive team that is catching 4.5 points AT HOME.  Irrationaliy is running rampant among the public because they are weighing last night’s loss along with Joe Johnson’s injury in a scenario where odds makers are 2 steps ahead.  Pure irrationality, which equals a payday for the wise.

Studies have shown that home teams are 2.05% more likely to cover the spread, and favorites are 1.86% less likely to cover the spread:

["We find that there is evidence, both in the total data and in Logan sample, for favorites being overpriced relative to the line. In the total data, favorites are 1.86 percent less likely to beat the line. Home teams are 2.05 percent more likely to beat the line, which suggests that home teams are underpriced an... [More]

Posted Wednesday, February 22, 2012 12:23 PM

NBA Wednesday.. 1-0 yesterday.. 55-37 YTD (59.8%)

We had a nice late line movement yesterday and got quite an easy cover/SU win out of the Grizzlies.  I was late to announce the Grizzlies as an official play, but that happens occasionally and is one of the reasons I strongly suggest you follow me on twitter, if you follow my plays to any extent.. @mrchandman

Atlanta Hawks +6.5

Mathematically projected score: Hawks 95 Knicks 92

Unit split: 90% spread and 10% money line

This is pretty much the quintessential play for my method.  (1) We are gaining a theoretical edge from the fact that Atlanta plays better on the road than at home and New York plays worse at home than they do on the road.

(2) We are taking advantage of any over-adjustment due to the loss of Joe Johnson and the recent return of Carmelo Anthony.

(3) We are taking advantage of a “noumenal edge”.  Jeremy Lin is a phenom and, as a little philosophy lesson, phenomenal in opposite of noumenal.  The phenomenal world refers to anything that is an object of the senses (bias), the noumenal world is based on facts known without the senses (without bias.)  Basically, all the hype that surrounds Jeremy Lin is in excess of the actual skills he possesses and the actual difference he makes.  Historically, the noumenal realm describes as the “world of ideas”,  in contrast the phenomenal realm equates to the realm of sensory reality known to the uneducated mind.&nbs... [More]

Posted Tuesday, February 21, 2012 11:30 AM

NBA Tuesday.. 3-3 yesterday.. 54-37 YTD (59.3%)

Tough 3-3 result yesterday, with some narrow losses from Milwaukee and Utah.

Right now I have a 4-point edge for both New Orleans (+11) and Memphis (+1), but need those lines to move up to at least +12 and +2, respectively, to make a play for today.


Posted Monday, February 20, 2012 12:12 PM

NBA Monday.. 1-0 yesterday.. 51-34 YTD (60%)

Another easy cover and SU win on Sunday.  Monday’s card is extremely soft, we have more plays today than we’ve had in a single day all season.

5 plays:

New Jersey Nets +9.5

Mathematically projected score: Nets 97 Knicks 98

Unit split: 95% spread and 5% money line

The Knicks are always going to be overpriced, at least until “Linsanity” dies down.  This line is probably inflated further because Melo is returning to the lineup.

This is a great spot because you have to teams that defy the home court advantage logic.  Both of these teams play better on the road, so naturally the Nets gain a big advantage from that fact.  The Knicks lacking home court advantage may be attributed to the fact that Madison Square is a favorite place to play for many NBA players across the league, it is the basketball mecca, so it may be that road teams just play better in that building.

I expect the Knicks to sleepwalk through this game after an emotional win against the Mavericks.  Expect the the Knicks to look a little sloppy in Melo’s return.

Minnesota Timberwolves +4

Mathematically projected score: T-Wolves 106 Nuggets 104

Unit split: 75% spread and 25% moneyline

The Nuggets kinda blew their whole load on the OKC game and now they are right back at it against a competitive Timberowlves team.  Love is going to have a hay day on the boards, because t... [More]

Posted Saturday, February 18, 2012 01:55 PM

NBA Saturday.. 2-2 yesterday.. 49-34 YTD (59%)

Tough beat from the Bucks yesterday, but at least we got a little bonus money from the Hornets and Bobcats money lines to cut into the juice.

One play today:

New Jersey Nets +11.5

Unit split: 100% on the spread and 0% on the money line

Projected score: Nets 88 Bulls 93

The Bulls have been over-performing in Derrick Rose’s absence, so we get a little discount on his injury.  The last time these teams played, New Jersey was foiled by a terrible first quarter.  They inflated the line for that recent blowout, because recent results weigh so heavy in the minds of the public.  This line is fishy if you consider the margin of victory last time they met, also if you consider that the line was Bulls -10 in New Jersey.  However, like I have noted before, the Nets play better on the road and that makes them a +EV play on the road and -EV play at home because of the aut0 home adjustment that most people make “just because.”

The Nets are a pretty talented team and if you let them hang around they can bite you.  That being said, I don’t think the Nets quite have what it takes to take the Bulls down at home, so I’m just going to play 100% on the spread.  If the Nets can take advantage of the sometimes soft Chicago interior (anytime Noah is out), and pressure the Bulls ball-handler, they should have a lot of success in this game against the feared Bulls.

I am going to wait until... [More]

Posted Thursday, February 16, 2012 03:38 PM

NBA Thursday.. 2-2 yesteday.. 46-31 YTD (59.7%)

A little free entertainment yesterday, and the Rockets ML offset some of the juice.  I'll take a day like yesterday anytime.

We are fortunate to have the most plays on a TNT Thursday than we've had all season.

New Jersey Nets +8.5

Unit Split: 95% on the spread and 5% on the money line

This play is contingent on Granger being out.  He is questionable, but he may sneak into the line-up.  His injury makes a 3-point difference in the Nets edge.  We will have to wait until his status is released, so keep your eye on that injury wire.

Of my 7 criteria, the Pacers only hold an edge for being on their home floor and a slight trend advantage.  Both teams are due to lose ATS, though.  This line is only 1-point lower than it was last time the Nets went to Conseco Field House, that tells me that they are under-adjusting for Granger's injury.

We are going to wait to get down on this play until Granger's situation is better known.  Granger playing wouldn't void the play, but I would probably hold-off if he is likely to play.

Portland Trail Blazers +2

Unit split: 40% on the spread and 60% on the money line.

When the Clippers visited Rose Garden Arena in January the line was Blazers -5.5 now the Clippers make a return trip to a 7.5-point difference in the line.  I think you can agree that Aldridge's injury is being grossly over-adjusted for.  How could Granger'... [More]

Posted Wednesday, February 15, 2012 01:41 PM

NBA Wednesday.. 0-1 yesterday.. 44-29 YTD (60.3%)

Suns scratched Nash and Hill last night.  You would think they could release the news a but earlier, but that’s NBA head coaches for you.  Luckily we have 4 plays today, and one worked out so we can make a little money at the Suns expense.

Plays:

Philadelphia 76'ers (+3)
Projected score: Sixers 92 Magic 87Unit split: 65% spread and 35% moneyline

Neither team has a trend advantage in this game.  The betting public is heavier on the Magic side, probably because the Sixers have lost 3 of 4 and the public always plays toward the “hot hand.”  The “hot hand” effect has been studied to be one of the biggest factors of inefficiency in the betting market. (Sinkey& Logan  2009)

I am going to give this line a chance to improve before taking it.

Sacramento Kings (+6)

Projected score: Kings 101 Knicks 99
Unit split: 95% spread and 5% moneyline

The Knicks get a slight advantage in the trends department, but both teams are due for a situational ATS loss.  The obvious source of market inefficiency here is due to “Linsanity.”  This line would be about 2-points lower before Lin’s emergence.  The fact is that Carmelo Anthony is generally believed to make this team worse, however he is actually the second most important player to the Knicks (Lin is +11.7 and Melo is +7.2).  In comparison, Chandler is -1.4 and Stoudemire is -3.7 so the negative bias surrounding Antho... [More]

Posted Tuesday, February 14, 2012 02:23 AM

NBA Tuesday.. 0-1 Monday.. 44-28 YTD

Tough outing by the T-Wolves tonight, they had twice as many turnovers as the Magic did.

Tuesday's card is even sharper than Sunday's.  I calculate every side is within 3-points, with one exception:

Phoenix Suns +9

Projected score: Suns 106 Nuggets 102
Unit Split: 95% spread and 5% ML

Our market inefficiency for this play is derived from the public's "what have you done for me lately" mentality.  This line has been out for a while (opened at 7.5 and 8) and it jumped right when the Suns failed to cover tonight (now up to 9.) 

For this very reason, I love getting edges on teams that are on a b2b and did not cover the previous night.  Many that backed the Suns tonight may be looking to fade the Suns so they can get even, and some will be looking to fade the Suns twice in a row.  Either, way this is not a situation that draws public money on the Suns.

The Nuggets are coming off a very nice cover and SU win against a great Pacers team, and that is the first thing most squares will look at when they evaluate this game.  They will completely forget about the 5-game losing streak the Nuggets were on heading into that game vs. the Pacers. 

By my calculations, the Suns have a good chance at a SU win here and that means they should stay comfortably within the number.

I don't have any other prospective plays, nut we'll see where everything stands tomorrow morning.  That Bulls line will h... [More]

Posted Monday, February 13, 2012 10:00 AM

NBA Monday.. 0-0 Sunday.. 44-27 YTD (62%)

Took a day off yesterday, due to tight lines.  My scoring table went 3-3 on the day.

Monday's first play is:

Minnesota Timberwolves +5.5

Projected score: T-Wolves 96 Magic 94

That's a 7.5-ATS edge for the T-Wolves

Unit Split: 90% spread and 10% ML

Minnesota travels well; they are my #10 road team. On the other hand the Magic struggle at home, they are my #16 home team.  Part of the reason for poor home performance is disinterested fans that may be off-put by the rift that Dwight is causing in this Magic organization.

The T-Wolves hold a big advantage at PG and Love can contest Howard for rebounds, that is what will make the difference for the T-Wolves.

That's enough for the speculative write-up.. in reality all of my plays are based on market value and quantitative analysis, not match-ups and stuff I think COULD happen. I know the NBA like the back of my hand, but it’s all perception and bias.  You need cold hard statistics and market recognition to cap the NBA well.  We are playing against the logical perception that public plays [and write-ups] are based on.

I do believe in trends, for the simple fact that all ATS trends always progressing/regressing to a me... [More]

Posted Sunday, February 12, 2012 10:26 AM

NBA Sunday.. 3-0 yesterday.. 44-27 YTD (62%)

22-14 documented since I started posting at covers (61.1%). See my "covers space"

Profits 5 of last 6 days.

My scoring table went 7-0 ATS for games in which I dictated an edge yesterday.  ( I did not dictate an ATS edge for the SAS/NJN game.)

No play for today.  The biggest ATS advantage my scoring table calculates is Houston, with a 4-point ATS edge.  However, that is not enough of an edge to elicit a play.

If you want want to see my scoring table to use for reference today, you'll find it in my "covers space".  It's likely that it will hit 50% or better ATS on the games today.



Posted Friday, February 10, 2012 11:29 PM

NBA Saturday.. 1-2 yesterday (41-27 YTD)

Absolutely terrible Hornets beat tonight.. need some gambling insurance for that wreck.. I won't get into it though.

I am posting early because I got down on the Kicks at +7.5 because my book is asleep apparently. Most places have it for +6.5 but that is still a good deal.

New York Knicks +6.5
Projected score: Knicks 98 T-Wolves 99

Have to get on it ASAP, because it will be a a huge public play.

Play(s) to come..


Posted Friday, February 10, 2012 10:33 AM

NBA Friday.. 1-0 yesterday (40-25 YTD 61.5%)

4th winning night in a row last night.  Two plays for today:

I am going to observe line-movements on both plays in order to get the best number, neither is in much jeopardy of moving against us.

Atlanta Hawks (+4.5) and ML
Unit split: 80% on spread and 20% on ML
Projected score: Hawks 94 Magic 90

Hawks ATS trends due for progression:
Hawks are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog. Hawks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog. Hawks are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 0.5-4.5. Hawks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog of 0.5-4.5.Magic ATS trends due for regression:
Magic are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Magic are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.Home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings of these teams.

New Jersey Nets (+2.5) and ML
Unit split: 60% on ML and 40% on spread
Projected score: Nets 99 Piston 89

Nets trends due for progression:
Nets are 5-20-1 ATS in their last 26 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Nets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Nets are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400. Nets are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. loss. Nets are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.

Pistons ATS trends due for regression:

P... [More]

Posted Thursday, February 09, 2012 09:46 AM

NBA Thursday.. 2-1 yesterday (39-25 YTD 60.9%)

Value play for today.  I was going to take the Rockets but a slew of Suns trends that are due for progression knocked the Rockets overall edge down to 1-point in my scoring table.

Los Angeles Lakers +3.5
Projected score: Lakers 91 Celtics 88
Lakers hold a 7-point ATS edge according to my scoring table.

I am actually going to bet the Lakers -1 alternate line for +145 odds.  It's a value play so I can wager around 60% of a unit to win a full unit.

My documented record since I started posting here can be found in my "covers space".. 17-12 (58.6%).


Posted Wednesday, February 08, 2012 09:36 AM

NBA Wednesday.. 1-0 yesterday (37-24 YTD)

Relatively easy Suns cover yesterday.

Miami Heat -3.5
Projected score: Heat 102 Magic 91
Heat ATS edge of 7.5-points

Get this @-3.5 right now, it is moving to -4 in some places already.

I have 5.5-point ATS edges for 3 other teams, waiting for line moves to push them into confirmed status.





Posted Saturday, February 04, 2012 12:39 PM

NBA Saturday.. 33-20 YTD

Mavericks -5.5

NJ Nets +6

I got -5 and +6.5 because I strike early.  The lines above are acceptable, but do not let that Mavs number get to 6.

I create a daily scoring table that can be found in my covers space.. that table gives the Mavs a 8-point ATS edge and the Nets a 15-point ATS edge.  The line moved opposite of the public trend in the Nets game, that and the fact that their edge is so high, makes the Nets my play of the day.