cappyrwt's Blog

Posted Sunday, October 07, 2012 12:05 PM

Early games -- Week 5 -- Official Plays

Tenn+5.5 5U I'm expecting a big day from Mr Hasselbeck and a letdown for a Minnesota team that is not as good as advertised.
Cincy -4 2U Cincy has a tremendously hard ending to its schedule this year so I expect them to be very ready for every must win game. Plus, Miami has suffered two depressing defeats in a row. not a good spot for them.
KC +7 1U gut play. Baltimore can win this game with their eyes closed and that is exactly the type of effort I expect from them while KC needs a win.
Pitt -3 2U Pitt off a bye w  2 time SB champ against a Philly team that has looked awful as bas as possible while still posting a 3-1 record. Philly is not as good on the road and Pitt can not fall to 1-3 in that division.

Good luck, all!


Posted Friday, October 05, 2012 10:34 PM

If Nothing Else, You'll Be Entertained -- Week 5 Sunday NFL leans -- Part I

My objective is to make money.  I use a variety of statistical and situational analysis to make my plays. I fully recognize that I, like everyone else here, cannot predict the future. I simply try to provide the best evidence I believe in to make a good decision on a spread or ML. I encourage feedback that counters my opinion more than feedback that agrees with my opinion because it will challenge me to dig deeper and think differently. If you simply want to say I am wrong, you offer nothing of value to me or the others who are trying to beat Vegas. And let’s face it, we all want to and should help each other beat Vegas. With that said I plan to regularly post my leans by Friday with some thoughts and I will post my final plays Sunday morning. Since I have a family and I value spending time with them more than analyzing games, I apologize in advance if I don’t get back to anyone’s post in a timely fashion. I hope I can at least bring a different way to look at and cap games.

Atlanta -4.5 @ Washington: RGIII hysteria, folks. I went to school near DC and have many friends who are die hard skin fans. I empathize with them and hope RGIII continues to be the real deal because that will mean good things for Washington for years to come. This isn’t their game or their year. Matt Ryan is pissed about last year’s playoff loss and is taking it game by game this year.  Washington was hit by the injury bu... [More]

Posted Friday, October 05, 2012 10:34 PM

If Nothing Else, You'll Be Entertained -- Week 5 Sunday NFL leans -- Part II

Chicago -7 @ Jax: This line has had the biggest movement of any since last weekend. Everyone should be on Chicago after watching Cutler rip apart the Boys in their own stadium. Even I believe the hype. Although Jax has had a very difficult time getting to the QB (only 2 sacks all year), the Jaguars won’t need to hit Cutler for him to make bad decisions. With that said, Chicago’s defense should be enough to get it done against a still one-dimensional team. Blaine Gabbert should have stayed at Missouri for another year… or two.

Denver @ NE -6.5: I‘ve read all of the stats about Peyton’s recent history against Brady and NE. I don’t care. NE is a better team and will build on its 4th quarter offensive explosion last week in Buffalo. No QB is the complete package like Tom Brady; as a leader, thrower, decision maker, on-field coach, and competitor. He is it. I’ve enjoyed watching Peyton be back in the NFL but this might be a tough one for him to be watching in the 4th quarter from the sideline. Belicheck is going to bring the heat and I predict NE gets to Manning at least 5 times in this game.

Buff @ SF -10: I took the Jets vs SF last week and I cried the whole 2H. SF plays the type of defense that you would expect from a team which has invested the type of $$ Buffalo. And is there a more enigmatic team than Buffalo. It’s either Dr Jekyl or Hr Hyde to me. You never know who ... [More]

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