castor_troy's Blog

+10.5 to +11 An uneducated gamblers dillema..

By castor_troy | View all Posts
Posted Friday, October 09, 2009 06:23 PM   9 comments
    I always try to figure this line movement thing out and I just cant. I know the line opened at 7.5 to 8 and I know a lot of the public is betting Nevada up to 10.5 to 11 but I cant understand why it has not started to come back down the numbers seem since last night to be getting closer on the public play. Is Vegas begging us to take Louisiana Tech? I just think if they wanted us to stay on Nevada this line would have never seen doubledigits. Yes Nevada is 1-3 but they have played some tough competion they did keep the game close until a turnover against a very capable pass offense in Mizz..Dont know if Techs pass defense is as good as Mizz.. And I know for a fact that Mizzous run defense is better than Techs. And Mizz had a ruff time containing the Nevada run game.. Tech is giving up 200+ rushing yards a game Nevada can and will run the ball and keep Techs passing game off the field I think over the last two games Nevada has found there rythm and this game they should make a statement and of course I can be way off on my assesment.... If they keep Tech off the field and eliminate turnovers they should win this easy in my opinion... I just think vegas is gift wrapping the +10.5 to +11 play but then again I am not that educated in the fine art of handicapping...... So all input is appreciated....
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Faber_Guy says:
10/09/09 07:31PM
There are a lot of broke azzholes that sit around all day "analyzing" line movement. Saw a sign the other day from an indigent person that said "will analyze line movement for food." Srsly, know the contest ur considering: what each team does well (and not as well), consider the situation, consider all aspects of the contest that cannot be easily quantified, then make ur play. Or simply pass. Remember that many games are unplayable. And if all else fails, find a fade. They're around. Trust me. GL2U.
castor_troy says:
10/09/09 07:52PM
Yea agree with you on your comments. Now I see the line 11.5 to 12 im thinking a small play on Nevada is were im going with this the +11.5 to 12 really seems to good to be true.

 

This is why we gamble if Nevada wins and covers I dont see the over hitting either so..

 

Nevada -11 Under 57

 

Tease 6pt. Nevada -5 and Under 60

 

Bol to all.......

Gold_Rush says:
10/09/09 07:53PM
Teaser on LA TECH sounds appealing 
Dr_Hoops says:
10/09/09 08:00PM
Take Tech and the points. 
Faber_Guy says:
10/09/09 08:00PM
...Meant to also say that even if do u get really, really good at it, u still might only go 58%. That means that a) unit discipline is critical and b) most can't do it so anyway so don't beat urself up if it doesn't click. Bookies drive Lexuses for a reason. Ok then, GL.
Faber_Guy says:
10/09/09 08:02PM
And stay away from the exotics... Fool's gold... Will bury u in the long run...
topperchris says:
10/09/09 09:03PM
I only play 2-3 games a week..If you play alot of games you lose..Most games are unplayable... Dont do teasers as above said..They will kill you..I wont play this game
castor_troy says:
10/09/09 11:45PM
kinda figured this line looked to good.....
castor_troy says:
10/10/09 12:03AM
Dont bet a whole lotta games but on nights like these sometimes you feel like your starting to get the hang of this capping skill I was pretty right on with my assesment 4-0 on the night....
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User: castor_troy
Joined: June 2008
Location: Italy
Team: Green Bay Packers
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