ce_manager's Blog

Oklahoma City vs Washington FREE Winner

By ce_manager | View all Posts
Posted Monday, January 07, 2013 08:01 AM   0 comments
Today's featured FREE play comes from expert Ben Burns. To say Ben Burns is hot right now would be an under statement. In addition to going a PERFECT 8-0 with his football on the weekend, Ben Burns was also 2-0 in the NBA. He's now 30-10 his L40 NBA selections. Burns hasn't had a sub-500 day in 2013 and he's 26-10-1 (or 27-10) since New Year's Eve. Going back further finds him at 93-56 (+$29,103) over the past four weeks. You can check out today's free selection here.

NBA: Oklahoma City vs Washington, January 7, 2013 - 7:00 PM

Capper: Ben Burns

Pick: Washimgton +10.5


After eking out a winner with Friday's complimentary selection on the Pistons, I didn't release any "free" plays over the weekend. I did win both my "premium" NBA picks though, while also going 8-0 with my football. So, although Saturday's college hoops didn't fare too well, it was certainly a nice way to spend the first weekend of 2013.

Today, I'll take a look at an "ugly underdog" which is getting a lot of points ...

The Thunder are one of the best teams in basketball. The Wizards are one of the worst. That said, I feel Washington is offering us some solid value here.

Obviously, OKC is the superior team. However, as noted, this is a very large number.

Both teams played yesterday. The Thunder played early in the afternoon, beating Toronto by double-digits. (Durant, Westbrook, Ibaka all still had to play 35 or more minutes.) The Wizards played later, getting blown out by Miami.

I successfully played against the Thunder the last time that they played the second of back-to-back games. They lost outright vs. Minnesota. They're now 2-3 ATS the last five times that they were in that situation.

A closer look reveals that the Thunder have only won by more than seven points once, the last six times that they played on the road, after playing the previous day/night. (That includes four games this season & two last spring.)

Meanwhile, the Wizards have quietly been very competitive, when playing the second of back-to-back games. In fact, they're 8-2 ATS their last 10 in that situation, including 2-0 ATS since Christmas. They've played the second of b2b games nine times this season and only one of those resulted in a loss of greater than nine points - and that was at Miami against a revenge-minded Heat team. (I backed the Heat in that one, as it was a tough spot for Washington.)

The Wizards are 10-4 ATS the last 14 times that they were listed as home underdogs in the 9.5 to 12 range, going 4-2 ATS their last six in that situation. During that stretch, they've also gone 12-7-1 ATS when playing a home game where the O/U line ranged from 190 to 194.5 points.

Getting 10.5 at the betting window, as they currently are here, the Wizards upset the Thunder last January. Consider grabbing the points.

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User: ce_manager
Joined: August 2011
Location: Ireland
Team: Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Occupation: Management

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