Today's featured FREE play comes from expert Ben Burns. Ben Burns is a profitable 42-27-1 in 2013; he's now 111-74 (+$27,469) his L185. Ben is making just three plays on Tuesday. However, ALL three of them have received his HIGHEST RATING. He's expecting a big day. Check out his expert analysis below.
NBA: New Orleans vs Philadelphia, January 15, 2013 - 7:00 PM
Capper: Ben Burns
https://experts.covers.com/Handicapper/Ben_BurnsPick: Over 183.5
These teams played an extremely low-scoring game (77-62) against each other earlier in the season. That was back in early November though and it was also at New Orleans. We should be able to expect significantly more points than that this evening.
This O/U number is in the low to mid 180s. As of this writing, its come down a little from its opener. I believe its offering very fair value.
Not only do the 76'ers score more points at home, they also allow more. Games at Philadelphia are averaging 193.2 points. For the season, the "over" is a lucrative 14-4 here. That includes a 4-1 "over" mark when they were listed as home favorites in the 3.5 to 6 range.
Meanwhile, the Hornets score considerably more points on the road than they do at New Orleans, also allowing more. Their road games are averaging 195.3 points. Eleven of their 18 away games have finished above the number. That includes a 3-0 "over" mark when they were listed as road underdogs in the 3.5 to 6 range.
While the 76'ers would surely like to improve their defense, they've still allowed four of their last five opponents to reach triple-digts. Holding the Hornets to 95 would be considered an "improvement." Yet, if the 76'ers only matched that mark, we'd have enough to easily clear this number.
With the 76'ers having been off since Saturday, it should also be mentioned that the "over" is a perfect 8-0 when Philadelphia has played with two day's rest in between games. The 76'ers last three games in that situation have produced 207, 197 and 202 points. Take a look at the Over.
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