NCAAF: North Texas vs. Tulane Free Pick
| View all Posts
Posted Saturday, October 05, 2013 07:45 AM
Today's free pick comes from Matt Fargo.
Start: October 5, 2013 3:30PM
Capper: Matt Fargo
Offered at: bookmaker @ 3 -110 Tulane
Matt has been nearly UNBEATABLE the last two Saturdays as he has gone an INSANE 18-1 (95%)with his side plays! He was a PERFECT 6-0 three weeks ago and he was again a PERFECT 7-0 last week! He brings in his BLISTERING 28-12 (70%) CFB YTD record and is releasing another MONSTER card on Saturday! How about another PERFECT SWEEP!
Tulane came through for us last week as it was able to revenge its loss from last season against the Warhawks in picking up the comfortable victory. The Green Wave are now back home following a three-game roadtrip where they went 1-2 to improve to 3-2 on the season. That may not seem very impressive but considering they have won just two games in each of the last two seasons, it is a pretty good start for them. They are 1-1 at home with the lone defeat being a tough two-point loss against South Alabama. A better way to show their improvement though is to look at the yardage numbers. Tulane was outgained by 163 ypg last season but this year thus far, they are getting outgained by just over 20 ypg. Additionally, this is the best start for Tulane since 2003 when it also opened up 3-2. The big factor here however is that the Green Wave are getting points at home against a team that has no business being a road favorite. North Texas has actually been good to us this season as we went against them at Ohio and won and then backed them the following week at home against Ball St. at home. The Mean Green got thumped two weeks ago at Georgia and is coming off a bye which I feel is not a big edge in this matchup at all. They are 0-2 on the road while getting outgained by an average of 269.5 ypg and going back it does not get much better. The Mean Green are now 9-4 at home since the start of the 2010 season but they have gone 2-13 on the road over that stretch and going back further, they are 8-40 over their last 48 road games going back to 2006. To their credit, this is expected to be one of the better North Texas teams we have seen in a few years but until it can get better play on the road, they will be a fade at prices like this. Going back to the yardage margins for Tulane, the positive turnaround can be attributed to the defense. Tulane has surrendered 361.6 ypg which ranks second among C-USA squads. Last season, it gave up 482.6 ypg and one of the biggest reasons for the Green Wave improvement has been their effort against the rush. This season, Tulane is allowing just 127 ypg compared to 222.9 ypg a year ago. This is not only a big game for Tulane for conference ramifications but it is homecoming and the Green Wave will be out to grab the 500th win in program history. Tulane has a great situation on its side as we play on teams that are rushing for between 3.5 and 4.3 ypc going up against teams averaging between 3.0 and 3.5 ypc, after allowing 1.5 or less ypc last game. This situation is 22-3 ATS (88 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Play (344) Tulane Green Wave
!--*** Footer scoreboard ************ -->