Sunday's Free Pick comes to us from the red hot Bryan Power!
Start: September 8, 2013 - 1:00 PM
Capper: Bryan Power
Offered at: 5dimes @ 4 -110 Jacksonville
1* Jacksonville (1:00 ET): Normally, a battle of 2-14 teams from the previous season would hold little to no interest w/ me, or football fans in general. But Kansas City is expected to improve in a major way in 2013 and its those very same expectations that will cost them the cover in this season opener. I'm taking the home dog here...
Kansas City had the worst point differential in the league last year at -214. As a result, significant changes were made both at coach and at quarterback. Andy Reid replaces Romeo Crennel on the sidelines; the only thing those two counterparts share is a love for the buffet line. Reid is a definitely upgrade as is new QB Alex Smith over the hideous Matt Cassel-Brady Quinn duo that plagued the team under center last year.
But at the same time, I feel that its too early in the season to be laying points w/ the Chiefs on the road, at least this many. With the line now past the key number of 3, I feel the value resides with Jacksonville at home. Over the previous two seasons, Kansas City is 0-5 against the spread when laying points. They are also 0-4 ATS the first two weeks of the season. Like KC, the Jaguars are breaking in a new head coach, Gus Bradley, who is the former DC from Seattle. He won't want to open the year with a loss at home and I see this game coming down to the wire. 1* Jacksonville.
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