Eagles at Cardinals Free Play
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Posted Friday, September 21, 2012 08:56 PM
My first NFL free play of the season was successful last Sunday with the Texans easily covering the spread. Hope everyone got on board that pick.
A big part of my NFL betting strategy involves projecting overall win/loss records at the start of the season and comparing/contrasting to actual records week in and week out.
As week 3 hits there is an opportunity with the Philadelphia Eagles (2-0) at Arizona Cardinals (2-0) to showcase this strategy.
At the start of the season, projecting the Eagles to start 3-0 seems possible with 1 home game vs. the Ravens and two road games vs. the Browns and Cardinals. To project the Cardinals to go 3-0 to start the season with 2 home games vs. Seattle and Philadelphia and a road game at Foxborough seems outrageous. For that reason and the analysis below, my play is on the Eagles.
The Eagles are the first team ever in the history of the NFL to start the season 2-0 while turning the ball over 9 times. Vick led the futility charge with 7 TOs himself (6 INTs). He knows he has to be better Sunday at securing the ball and odds are he will. The Eagles offense is as explosive as any in the league, we all know that, it doesn't need to be reiterated. Starting centre Jason Kelce has been lost for the season and the Cardinals have an excellent pass rush however there are few QBs as elusive as Michael Vick.
On defense, the Eagles strength is in the secondary with arguably the best 1-2 punch in the league with Asomugha and Rodgers Cromartie. Considering the Cardinals rely heavily on the passing game with little of a running attack, this scenario bodes well for the Eagles. Look for the former Cardinal Rodgers Cromartie to be a factor in this game!
Kevin Kolb has seized the starting QB role for the Cardinals with Skelton going down to injury. The former Eagles pivot will look to remain productive in this game, something he's struggled with since joining the Cards. In two games this season Kolb has a QB rating of 95.7, 18 points higher than his career average of 77.7.
The Cardinals offense is the lowest ranked in the league after two games with a 250 ypg average. The heart and soul is WR Larry Fitzgerald with a mere 67 yards receiving out of the gate. He will be in tough to break out Sunday.
Starting RB Beanie Wells is expected to carry the load in this game despite rushing for only 58 yards this season nursing a sore knee. Back up RB, 2011 second round pick Ryan Williams has only 22 yards rushing on the season as he is nursing a sore knee as well.
The defense has developed into one of the best in the league with LB Daryl Washington leading the NFL with 21 solo tackles and DE Calais Campbell earning defensive player of the week honors in week 2.
As I break this game down a couple items stand out. The Eagles have two narrow victories despite losing the turnover battle in both games, giving up the ball 9 times. The Cardinals won last week thanks to a last second FG miss by the Pats. In the opener, the Seahawks had 7 straight unsuccessful attempts from inside the 5 to win the game thanks to a pass interference penalty.
In the two games the Eagles offense has accumulated an average of 471 ypg while the defense has allowed an average of 268 ypg for a +203 differential.
The Cardinals offense has accumulated an average of 250 ypg while the defense has allowed an average of 320 ypg for a -70 differential and the team is 2-0.
Take the Eagles to win this weekend ATS! Good luck betting.
Post A Comment
9/22/2012 12:16:34 PM
9/23/2012 2:51:46 PM
think u r wright
9/23/2012 7:21:58 PM
Arizona is winning 24-3 Who would have thought Zona might be for real. Just saying!!!! It's not over till it's over but it sure looks bad for Philly.
9/29/2012 12:04:17 AM
Zona is for real, I missed the boat on that one!
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