celliot's Blog

Bills at 49ers Free Play

By celliot | View all Posts
Posted Saturday, October 06, 2012 10:07 PM   4 comments
The Buffalo Bills (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS) travel to Candlestick Park to take on the San Francisco Giants (3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS) in week 5 Sunday afternoon.

The Bills are stinging after getting hammered at home last week 52-28 to a determined New England Patriots club. They had won their previous two contests 24-14 at Cleveland and 35-17 at home vs. K.C. after a week 1 loss 48-28 at NYJ.

QB Fitzpatrick has put up decent numbers with an 89.8 QB rating, 57.6% completion, 931 yards throwing, 12 TDs, 7 INTs and 66 yards on the ground. Of note, all of his 7 INTs were in the teams 2 losses to the Jets and NE. Keep it simple Fitzy and your team will keep it close.

Neither RB Jackson (knee) or Spiller (shoulder) are at 100% however both are expected to play Sunday. The duel when healthy are as good as any RB combo in the league. In 2011 they combined for 2,206 total yards from scrimmage with 12 TDs.

The offense has been excellent overall ranking 6th with 28.75 PPG. Their rushing attack has been stellar ranking 4th overall with a massive 632 yards through week 4.

The Bills focus in the offseason was on improving the team defense. They landed big name free agents DE Mario Williams and DE Mark Anderson to solidify a front line that includes 2011 third overall pick DT Marcell Dareus out of Alabama. The defense has struggled so far ranking 30th allowing 32.7 PPG and ranking 25th giving up 406.5 YPG. LB Nick Barnett has been awesome with 38 tackles while DT Kyle Williams leads with 3.5 sacks.

San Francisco is known for hard nose football with a strong defensive presence. Patrick Willis is arguably the best linebacker in the game right now with 5 years in the league and 5 pro bowls including 4 first team all pros (2007, 2009, 2010 and 2011).

QB Alex Smith is an efficient passer with a 98.1 QB rating and 67.3% completion. He does not have a big play offensive weapon at WR however TE Vernon Davis is considered one of the most athletic players in the game and is the fastest of the 49er receivers.

RB Frank Gore continues an impressive career with 326 yards rushing in 4 games this season and 7,951 in his career in 104 games.

The offense ranks 12th in the NFL scoring 26 PPG and 19th with 346.3 YPG. The defense ranks 3rd in the NFL giving up a mere 16.3 PPG and 5th in the NFL allowing 277.3 YPG.

LB Navorro Bowman (arm) is probable for this game while CB Carlos Rogers (ankle), DT Isaac Sopoaga (knee/ankle) and RB Brandon Jacobs are all questionable.

These two teams haven't met since 2008 therefore the head to head matchup is irrelevant. I expect both teams to supply a heavy dose of the run game in this one which will eat up time on the clock. If Buffalo can avoid turning the ball over they can keep this game close. With Buffalo currently getting 11 points, take the Bills to do enough to cover the spread.
4 comments
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timmyp38 says:
10/07/12 12:46PM
I agree 100%, The Biils will keep it close and cover 11 points
celliot says:
10/07/12 01:39PM
Thanks Timmy, I hope we are both right!
lmstudfosho says:
10/10/12 01:59AM
Bro, your picks are terrible.
celliot says:
10/13/12 06:29PM
6 straight NFL/NCAAF picks ATS cashed, check me out on covers experts.

My NFL free plays have struggled although I do have back to back NCAAF free play winners with Louisville ATS at Pitt. and Kent State ATS at Eastern Michigan.

Check out my free play this Sunday with the Seahawks at home ATS over the Patriots.

Thanks for showing interest even if it is negative!

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User: celliot
Joined: May 2012
Location: United States
Team: Atlanta Braves
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