chrisdeniro2ks's Blog

VERY in-depth Auburn @ WVU preview!!

By chrisdeniro2ks | View all Posts
Posted Monday, October 20, 2008 04:54 PM   37 comments
o.k. Im 28-22-3 ATS YTD....I had a strong 6-1 ATS picks last weekend and 0-1 on my 7 point teaser pick...On to this Thursday night battle in Morgantown...
 
It's forecast to be in the low 50's upper 40's light 7MPH breeze during the game and how will that effect Tommy Tubberville's Auburn TIgers(4-3 1-6 ATS)??? Not much I dont think...If it was going to be in the 30's than weather might play a factor but one of his teams played in the Iron Bowl vs Bama in 2000 it was 41 degrees @ kickoff and they won,so weather guys toss that theory out the window! BUT this is Auburn first non-conference away game since 2003 @ Georgia Tech and they lost 17-3 as 8 point favorites!!!
 
Lets start at QB's...Spread offense here??? An offense with an identity crisis??? YES!!! Kodi Burns(6'1 205 Soph) or Chris Todd(6'4 212 Jr.) which will it be Tommy?? between the two of them the ratio is 5Td's 9 Int's!!! Burns has 198 yards passing 0 TD's 3 Int's completing a horrible 40% of his passes, and is the scrambler of the duo with 116 yards 3.3 per carry and 2 TD's....Chris Todd has 903 yards 5 TD's 6 Int's completing 55.1% of his passes! Low completion %'s ! I say start Fr. Deron Furr who ran the spread in HS but hey do what you please,anything is worth a shot here Tommy....Pat White(6'2 185 Sr.) who has been banged up is WVU starting Qb who missed his last game vs.Syracuse....He has 590 yards 9 Td's and just 1 INT completing 72% of his passes this year!!! He has 428 on the ground averaging 6.1 per carry and 2 Td's as well.....White could have played vs. Cuse but sat out and wanted to be as close to 100% for this game IMO....It's obvious WVUhas the QB edge with White.
 
Ground game...Auburn bread and butter..well it used to be before this spread...they are led by Ben Tate(5'11 215 Jr.) who has 533 2TD's averaging 4.4 per carry...Tate is a bruiser who needed this bye week bad..A week's rest is what he needed...The only team to contain hm this year was LSU, he was a non factor vs. Arkansaswith 8 carries for 32 yards...Brad Lester(5'11 198 Sr.) has 193 yards 4.0 per carry and 1 TD..This is tough duo Auburn most emphasive using to be effective...WVU is led by Noel Devine (5'8 170 Soph) 692 yards 6.6 percarry and 2 TD's....White is the team #2 rusher....They both have solid run games
 
Recivers : AU led by Rodgereous Smith(6'0 195 Sr.) who has 21 rec. 212 yards  TD...Robert Dunn(6'0 178 Sr.) has 15 rec 172 yards 2 TD's..Montez Billings (6'2 188 Sr.) has 13 rec.  153 yards...WVU led by Jock sanders(5'8 185 Soph) has 28 rec 211 yards 5 TD's....Devine is also a threat out of the backfield with 20 rec.  Alric Arnett(6'2 195 Jr,) has 2 Td's and 14 rec....Both are solid groups, AU a slight bit deeper.
 
O-Lines and defenses:Auburn O-Line has given up 16 sacks!!! Auburn  O-Line hasn't adjusted to the spread yet it's clear cut because they are a good group...Their defense is allowing just 23% 3rd down converions!!!!!!Allowing just 272 total yards per game and 3.2 per carry...WVU defense is allowing 320 yards per gameand tough vs the run(3.2) per carry!!!WV is allowing 14.7 points per game and Auburn is allowing 13.1 points per game
 
O.k let's wrap this up.....Auburb has had the tougher schedulehands down so far playing LSU close 26-21 and otherSEC school games close...That was their largest loss by 5 points..They lost to Ark by 3 and Vandy 1....WV toughest opponent was ECU they lost 24-3...They also lost to a mediocre Colorado team..This isnt the WVU teams of the past on either side of the ball....Auburn is 6-1 all time on Thursdays!!!! In the past 5 years Tubberville hasn't lost 3 in a row and beyond that im not sure if he has but am going to check....He is a solid 12-7 off the bye week!!! I think the extra time to prepare and the bye week is just what the doctor ordered for Auburn....Im Playing Auburn+4
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ValueforRent says:
10/20/08 05:07PM
SEC middle of the pack > Big East.
lobosrule says:
10/20/08 10:46PM
don't want to knock the in depth write-up... always great to see...

 

but ValueforRent said pretty all that needs to be said... and WVa isn't even a top Big East team...

jimmydafreak says:
10/20/08 11:47PM
Nice write-up Chris, but I must correct you on the Auburn QB situation.  Kody Burns WILL be the starter, and as of right now, Chris Todd is not in the rotation.

 

True freshman Barrett Trotter got significant reps during the bye week as did Neil Caudle.  Trotter definitely will dress for the West Virginia game, but Tubberville said it was a secret if he'll burn his red shirt in this game.  It's not clear who will dress between Caudle and Todd.  Because this is a road game, it's possible both may dress.  The bottom line is that Cody WILL be the starter.

 

Auburn is a very banged up team, and their bye week couldn't have come at a better time.  They are extremely thin in the defensive secondary, and their best player (Jerraud Powers) did not play versus Arkansas.  That really hurt them against a pass-happy team like the Razorbacks.  The good new for the Tigers is that it looks like Powers will be back in the lineup this week.

 

It also appears that RBs Brad Lester (knee) & Ben Tate (hamstring), WR Robert Dunn (ankle), DE Antonio Coleman (various ailments) will all play.

 

I'll also side with the SEC team getting 4 points versus a mediocre (at best) Big Least team.  Auburn +4 is the play here!!!

 

 

FREAK OUT!!!

risktaker says:
10/21/08 12:16AM
as always nice write up bol man
wareagle04 says:
10/21/08 03:02AM
derron furr is no longer with the team

 

Trichome says:
10/21/08 03:13AM
i like it.  auburn has been a god dog over the years but this is a diff team. aub D should be a lot better off after the bye week. im with u on aub +4. gl to us..
RaianSan says:
10/21/08 03:19AM
Auburn is definitely the play here. WVU are horrible this year and I'm also leaning toward the Under in this game. I think both teams will have trouble scoring but Auburn D will be the deciding factor in this game.
jimmydafreak says:
10/21/08 03:57AM

I agree that this game will most-likely not the reach total, which is all the more reason to take the points here.  I read somewhere where someone said Auburn will probably only score 14 points.  Well, I think 14 may be all they need.  I'd be very surprised if West Virginia hits that number.

Remember that Auburn's defensive coordinator is Paul Rhoads who spent the last 8 years as Pitt's defensive cordinator.  This guy is intimately familar with the Mountaineer attack.  In fact he prevented West Virginia from making it to the national championship game last year when his defense absolutely dominated the Mountaineer offense holding them to just 7 points (they scored 2 on a safety on the last play of the game).  I watched this game and the 7 points doesn't even begin to tell the story how dominate Pitt's defense was.

Pitts offense was just pathetic.  Because they couldn't move ball, it seemed like West Virginia started drives on Pittsburgh's side of the field about 20 times, and Pitts defense just sniffed them out everytime.  It was amazing.  Despite their incredible field position the entire second half, and only trailing by 6 points, all they needed was one 40-50 yard drive to win the game.  They never came close!!!

Now Rhoads coaches a defense with much more talent, playing against a Mountaineer offense that is half of what it was last year, AND had almost 2 weeks to prepare!!!  I think if Auburn scores 14 points (Pitt only scored 13 last year), that'll probably be enough to win the game, or at the very least, cover the spread.

I just can't see Auburn not winning this game!!!

FREAK OUT!!!

chrisdeniro2ks says:
10/21/08 09:42AM
hey jimmy you dont think we're going to see Chris Todd at all??? I just dont see Tuberville not putting him in
jimmydafreak says:
10/21/08 11:19AM
No, Todd is NOT in the QB rotation at all.  I don't want to get too long with my response, so I'll try to keep it as brief as possible.

 

As I've been telling my fellow cappers whom I speak to on the phone on a weekly basis, Auburn had a lot of internal problems before the season ever started.  They were also hit hard by injuries before the season started as well.  I told them all (pre-season) that Auburn was no where near a top 10 team and was probably not a top 25 team.

 

The biggest conflict on the team surrounded the QB situation (again this was pre-season).  Kodi Burns (who is black) played a significant number snaps last year, and was being groomed by Tommy Tubberville to be the heir apparent to senior QB Brandon Cox.  Enter new offensive coordinator Tony Franklin.

 

Franklin brought in Chris Todd (who is white) because he had some experience running the Franklin Airraid offense.  In other words, Todd was Franklin's boy!!!  When it became apparent that Franklin wanted Todd and other coaches and players (mainly black players) wanted Burns, you had a good old fashion QB controversey brewing.  You also had a divided team.

 

Against Tennessee, Todd played the whole first half, but at halftime Tubberville forced Franklin start the second half with Burns behind center.

 

Now that Franklin is gone, two things have happened.  The first is Burns has been inserted as the undisputed started, and barring an injury, I think Todd's Auburn career is done!!!  Todd's Auburn career is probably done even if Burns does get injured.  Secondly, the team is much more unified now that Franklin & Todd are out of the picture.  In short, the Franklin departure is a big positive for the team.

 

As I said above, the fact that Tubberville conducted an open tryout during the bye week between Caudle & Barrett Trotter for what I believe is the backup QB job (behind Burns), tends to confirm what I'm saying.

 

If we see a QB sharing snaps with Burns this week, it won't be Todd IMO.  I'm pretty sure it'll be true freshman Barrett Trotter, if anyone at all.  Burns will probably play the whole game though.

 

I hope this clears things up for you a bit.  If you have further questions, please feel free to ask.

 

 to us on our Auburn play!!!

 

FREAK OUT!!!

chrisdeniro2ks says:
10/21/08 11:54AM
great response man you hit it on the head....I personally like Todd better myself....If you know I know someone said Deron Furr is no longer with the team..was he the kid who got kicked off right?
HappyKane says:
10/21/08 10:51PM
I kinda like the points but...

 

can i trust my money with Kodi Burns?

 

 
SCOOPYDEW says:
10/22/08 06:35PM
Great write up Chris like the pick this sure isnt the WV of old. BOL
tsw says:
10/22/08 09:02PM
I like WVU.  The fact that they have underperformed ( public perception)  gives them great value IMO.  The edge at QB is too huge to pass up.
stichael23 says:
10/22/08 09:32PM
I'm a huge AU fan so let me set a few things straight. Burns will start and you can expect to see Neil Caudle as the backup...I will be suprised to see Trotter play this year as it would result in him losing his redshirt.From what I have read he hasn't looked that much better than Caudle in practice this week. Secondly AU is not completely abandoning the spread as some on here believe.They will still run the majority of the offense out of the spread but you will see alot more plays run out of the ace set. And finally there was a QB controversy but it never had to with race. I have a couple buddies on the team and there was never really a split.BOL this weekend guys.
LaDaddy says:
10/22/08 09:37PM
.............gl
insatiable says:
10/22/08 10:08PM
roversport365 says:
10/22/08 10:15PM
Good write up man!  Auburn has played way better talent than WVU.  What the hell is up with them anyway?  I know Rodriguez is gone but they didn't lose that much.  They should be running away with Big East in an off year for the conference.  I think Auburn will welcome the break from the rugged SEC. I faded WVU a long time ago.  I hate to say this, but they are only a former shell of themselves.

 

 

AUBURN ML 

 

BOL

jimmydafreak says:
10/23/08 02:27AM

Furr was not kicked off the team, he was the victim of a code red on his first day of practice.  As I understand it, some veterans thought he was slacking at practice and decided to send the freshman a message.  Then like 3 players proceeded to beat the crap out of him.  He was injured and required immediate medical attention.  After that Furr said "fuck this" and requested a transfer.

When Tommy Tubberville wouldn't grant him a transfer, Furr's dad basically told Tubberville that either he would grant Furr his transfer or he would press criminal charges against the players.  Tubberville caved and granted Furr his transfer.  I haven't heard where he's going.

This was a shock to me because Furr was the crown jewel of an otherwise weak recruiting class for Auburn last year.  Losing him was a huge blow!!!

FREAK OUT!!!

dtv001 says:
10/23/08 02:31AM
Great write up!!  Auburn 13-10.  Good stuff in this article
jimmydafreak says:
10/23/08 03:58AM

West Virginia can't beat any of the teams you mention.  And WVU won't score anywhere near 24 points.  The only two decent defenses WVU has faced this year is ECU & Colorado, and they scored 3 & 10 points respectively.  Auburn's defense is significantly better than ECU's & Colorado's.  It is a complete mismatch.  But hey, it's you $$$

BOL on the rest of your games, cuz West Virginia is not a winner!!!

FREAK OUT!!!

RaianSan says:
10/23/08 04:14AM
I'm glad Auburn lost last week to Arkansas. That's how we're getting +3 and +4. If Auburn won last week, more people would had jump on Auburn.
D-Town says:
10/23/08 08:05AM
Good luck Chris. 
chrisdeniro2ks says:
10/23/08 10:45AM
 thanks
chrisdeniro2ks says:
10/23/08 10:50AM
thanks scoop BOL this weekend!!!
estes1717 says:
10/23/08 11:58AM
MossFromProdigy says:
10/23/08 12:04PM
abc says:
10/23/08 12:19PM
Chris,

 

I'm on total opposite of ya...but good writeup..

 

I'm always weary of teams who don't have an identity on offense.  Auburn is a perfect example on the road in a hostile environment (nothing new to Auburn) against a decent defense and ok offense.  I'm only playing the under myself but line hasn't moved and Auburn coming from SEC musn't be gathering much of the dineiro..IMO

 

GOOD LUCK to you

 

GEKKO

Mr803 says:
10/23/08 01:01PM
Great info thanks...I think both offenses click tonight....
Mr803 says:
10/23/08 01:03PM
ps...SEC teams on the road vs. Non-conf  opponents are 14-0 ATS on Thursday nights....Will the trend be broken tonight?...
RowdyMike says:
10/23/08 12:17PM
 

 

Not so fast my friend.  WV at home on Thursday, almost as solid as Steelers on MNF.  Fade the trap

 

SCOOPYDEW says:
10/24/08 10:15AM
  
SCOOPYDEW says:
10/23/08 06:39PM
Took Auburn and over in the Air Force game in a tease BOL .
chrisdeniro2ks says:
10/23/08 07:38PM
GL scoop!!!
chrisdeniro2ks says:
10/23/08 01:09PM
Nice info didnt know that
trapline says:
10/23/08 11:21PM
all your got trap what u guy think tomorrow game gonna be don,t get trap again
davmeek says:
10/23/08 12:16PM


Furr transferred to Memphis.
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