chuckgee's Blog

Posted Saturday, February 01, 2014 11:43 AM

Pappy's Privy Council Superbowl XLVIII

 

SUPERBOWL XLVIII 

We’ve been investing in NFL matchups since 1995.  And we’ve never before seen a Superbowl so closely matched. 

Here’s our pick.

 

 

Seattle Seahawks +2

 

 

We’ve been so successful ATS this post-season (80%), we could lose this investment and still be way ahead. 

So that means we’re sorta blasé about our pick. 

We made our investment early in the week, afraid the line would move more.  It didn’t 

Anyway, here’s our impressions. 

As we’ve said all season long, games that are too close to call are often entertaining to watch.  Sunday’s Superbowl is very much in that category.  It has the potential to be a true classic.  

Many touts, tipsters, wonks, wags, wankers, and pompous twits are predicting Denver.  That could be one of the reasons we’re predicting Seattle.  

We’ve learned, long ago, a couple of important lessons.  First of all, the people who set the spread, they’re very, very sharp. 

[More]

Posted Saturday, January 18, 2014 10:58 AM

Pappy's Privy Council -- Championships

 

NFC and AFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAMES

 

We’ve been investing in NFL matchups since 1995.  And never before have we been so successful in the postseason. 

We could lose against the spread the next three games, and still be money ahead in the postseason. 

That above statement in particularly apropos given we’ve never before seen AFC and NFC championship games so closely matched. 

Be forewarned!  The following picks are highly suspect!

 

 

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS  +5.5

 

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS  -3.5

 

 

We made our investments Friday morning.  The Seattle line is pretty firm.  The New England line is showing some movement and could be different come Sunday. 

Anyway, here’s our impressions. 

As we’ve said all season long, games that are too close to call are often entertaining to watch.  Sunday’s games are very much in that category.  

Much of the public is on Denver.  Many touts, tipster... [More]

Posted Saturday, January 11, 2014 11:34 AM

Pappy's Privy Council -- Div. Playoffs

DIVISIONAL PLAYOFFS – 2013

Remember what we often say here; the people who set the spread are very, very good at what they do –- and their customers are the casinos, not you!!!!! 

In any case, this weekend may prove out to have the most entertaining games of this entire NFL season.  We’re predicting that three out of these four games are gonna be   close. 

Here’s our picks.

 

Saints +10

 

We just can’t believe the Saints are a 10 point underdog.  We think the Seahawks are gonna win.  But by more than 10 points?  We shall see

 

 

Patriots -7.5

 

Everyone and their grandmothers seem to be on the Colts.  Not us.   You don’t think the Pats are gonna beat up on the opposing QB in this matchup?   You don’t think the refs are gonna make some controversial or unnecessary calls.  It’s your money, pal.

 

 

 

Niners pk

 

At the beginning of the seaso... [More]

Posted Saturday, January 04, 2014 11:34 AM

Pappy's Privy Council Wild Card Weekend

 All season long, we’ve been hovering over our spreadsheets, calculators, notepads.  Some of you out there have been spending your money on touts and tipsters.  

And those of you who are regular readers of this column are familiar with my constant refrain, “We always go with the math, not our feelings.” 

Well, now’s the time to throw all that in the dumpster. 

During the playoffs, the math means nothing.  It’s all about feelings. 

Here they are: 

Colts pk 

Saints +2.5

Bengals -7 

Niners -2.5 

Calculations now mean nothing at all.  It’s all about emotion.  That’s the reason the playoffs are so interesting.  The NFL players, who are extremely professional (and predictable) during the regular season, are now primed to play football as it should be played –- with emotion!! 

Young players are pumped.  The older players worry that  this may be their last hurrah.  They all play with the desire that is missing during the regular season.  And that means the matchups are unpredictable based upon the regular season stats. 

Meanwhile, those of us who follow the NFL have a... [More]

Posted Sunday, December 29, 2013 11:11 AM

Pappy's Privy Council wk 17

WEEK 17 – 2013 

BEST BET ------------- Giants 

GOTTA SHOT ----------- Steelers 

We’re deep into garage time, now.  But like we always say – “It’s a sickness.” 

And remember what else we often say; the people who set the spread are very, very good at what they do  –- and their customers are the casinos, not you!!!!!

Our games to watch this week? Bills/Patriots and Jets/Bucs  Games that are too close to call are often very entertaining.  These two games fit into that category. 

Good luck! 

Yore[sic] ol’ Pappy

 http://www.kinzuakid.blogspot.com           <<<<<<< Pappy's Blog

 

 



Posted Sunday, December 22, 2013 07:35 AM

Pappy's Privy Council

WEEK 16 – 2013 

 

BEST BET ------------- Saints

GOTTA SHOT -------- Broncos

 

We’re deep into garage time, now.  But like we always say – “It’s a sickness.”  

And remember what else we often say; the people who set the spread are very, very good at what they do  –- and their customers are the casinos, not you!!!!! 

Our game to watch this week?  Dallas/Washington. 

Good luck! 

Yore[sic] ol’ Pappy

http://www.kinzuakid.blogspot.com

 

 



Posted Sunday, December 08, 2013 11:36 AM

Pappy's Privy Council

WEEK 14 – 2013 

BEST BET ------------- Raiders +3

 

GOTTA SHOT ----------- Seahawks +2.5 

This is the forth week in the row that Tampa Bay has been one of our picks.  We’re very uncomfortable with that, but we always go with the math here. 

Remember what we often say; the people who set the spread are very, very good at what they do  –- and their customers are the casinos, not you!!!!! 

Our game to watch this week?  Cowboys vs. Bears 

As always, we’ll throw in our usual warning >>> Our Best Bets category cannot continue at its current high rate!!!!!!!!! 

Be forewarned.

In any case: 

Good luck! 

Yore[sic] ol’ Pappy

 
http://www.kinzuakid.blogspot.com

 

 

... [More]

Posted Sunday, December 01, 2013 08:57 AM

Pappy's Privy Council

WEEK 13 – 2013 

BEST BET ------------- Browns -7 

We’re always yappin’ about how we go with the math, not our feelings.  But this week –- well now, we gotta bad feelin’ about this week.

We always advise not to invest in marquee games, such as this week’s Denver/Kansas City matchup.  But what can we say?  The math shows the Broncos.  Again with the bad feelings.  It’s never wise to jump on a bandwagon.  Actually, the bandwagon here is in favor of Kansas City.  Still, it’s a bandwagon.  Best to stay off.  That’s why we list this game as FOR DEGENERATES ONLY.

Remember what we often say here; the people who set the spread are very, very good at what they do  –- and their customers are the casinos, not you!!!!!

Our game to watch this week?  Rams vs. Niners.  As much as we like the Rams, the math shows this game way too close to call. 

As always, we’ll throw in our usual warning >>> Our Best Bets category cannot continue at its current high rate!!!!!!!!!

 Be forewarned. 

In any case: 

Good luck! 

Yore[sic] ol’ Pappy 

... [More]

Posted Thursday, November 28, 2013 01:02 PM

Turkey Day 2013

 

2013 – Turkey Day

 

We usually don’t make any picks on Turkey Day –- but this year, the Oakland Raiders +8.5  have a high probability ATS. 

As always, 

Good Luck!!! 

And a Happy Thanksgiving 

From Yore[sic] Ol’ Pappy

http://www.kinzuakid.blogspot.com

 

 



Posted Sunday, November 17, 2013 09:53 AM

Pappy's Privy Council

NFL WEEK 11 – 2013 

BEST BET ------------- Steelers 

We’re always yappin’ here about how we always go with the math, not our feelings.  Well, what can we say?  The math sez the Steelers. 

We often advise our readers to stay off the bandwagons –- to not invest in marquee games.  The Chiefs vs. the Broncos is a perfect example.  However, this week we just couldn’t resist.  If you’re inclined to invest in the Chiefs, maybe you should not invest as much as you usually would.  Just sayin’.  And don’t get mad if the Chiefs actually beat the spread.  It’s ultimately your call.  There seems to be a bandwagon rolling by here, and we just couldn’t resist jumping on.  I mean, the Chiefs have got a heck of a bandwagon goin’, and it’s a great party –- while it lasts.   

Remember what we often say here; the people who set the spread are very, very good at what they do  –- and their customers are the casinos, not you!!!!!  And those people setting the spread, I’ve noticed sometimes they like to derail the bandwagons.  

Our games to watch this week?  Obviously, the Chiefs vs. the Broncos –- and it’s in primetime on NBC.  And, we calculated the San Francisco/New Orleans matchup to be so close, we didn’t even in... [More]

Posted Sunday, November 10, 2013 09:19 AM

Pappy's Privy Council

NFL WEEK 10 – 2013

 

 

BEST BET ------------- Ravens

 

If you’ve been following this blog for very long, you’re aware of my claim that “we always go with the math, not our feelings.” 

Well, Baltimore is our favorite team.  So even though the math shows them to be our Best Bet, still, I must confess that my feelings, in some mysterious and subliminal way  --  my feelings may have had a role in the pick.  You’ve been forewarned! 

Remember, the people who set the spread, they’re really, really  good at what they do –- and their customers are the casinos, not you!!!!! 

This week, we have two games that should be close enough to be extremely entertaining: Lions vs. Bears    and    Texans vs. Cardinals.   

Good luck! 

Yore[sic] ol’ Pappy

 

 

... [More]

Posted Sunday, November 03, 2013 10:19 AM

Pappy's Privy Council

WEEK 09 – 2013 

BEST BET ------------- Chiefs -3.5

GOTTA SHOT ----------- Rams +1 

The only difference in our calculations for the above choices was one half of one percentage point!  That’s why we’re including our GOTTA SHOT pick.

My feeling is the Rams are a long shot here.  But we always go with the math, not our feelings. 

Remember, the people who set the spread, they’re really, really  good at what they do –- and their customers are the casinos, not you!!!!! 

Our game to watch this week?  Ravens vs. Browns 

Good luck! 

Yore[sic] ol’ Pappy

 

 

 



Posted Sunday, October 27, 2013 09:56 AM

Pappy's Privy Council

WEEK 08 – 2013 

BEST BET ------------- Rams

 The Rams?    Who woulda guessed?  But it’s not a guess –- it’s math.  And I always go with the math. 

Remember, the people who set the spread –- their customers are the casinos, not you!!!!! 

Good luck! 

Yore[sic] ol’ Pappy

 

 



Posted Sunday, October 20, 2013 08:25 AM

Pappy's Privy Council

WEEK 07 – 2013 

BEST BET ------------- Falcons 

As we so clearly indicated the last couple of weeks, our Best Bet picks (83%) are overdue for a correction.  No one can be that accurate in the long run. 

Don’t believe it?  Go check out the LVH Supercontest.  Note  the percentages of some of the best handicappers in the world.  

In any case, be cautious this week.  And remember, the people who set the spread –- their customers are the casinos, not you!!!!! 

Good luck! 

Yore[sic] ol’ Pappy

 

 



Posted Sunday, October 13, 2013 09:00 AM

Pappy's Privy Council

WEEK 06 – 2013 

BEST BET ------------- Titans 

We’re really sticking our necks out this week.  We’ve added a couple of steps to our calculations, and there’s the possibility the experiment may blow up in our faces.

Besides, as we’ve so clearly indicated the last couple of weeks, our Best Bet picks are due for a correction.  No one can be that accurate in the long run.   Our Best Bets have been running at about 80%.  They best one can hope for in the long run is about 60% 

Don’t believe that fact?  Go to the LVH Supercontest web site.  Check out the records of the winners in years past.  These people are some of the best handicappers in the world.  Last year the winner, who took home something like $400,000 -- if I remember correctly, his percentage was slightly under 60%.  

In any case, be cautious this week.  And remember, the people who set the spread –- their customers are the casinos, not you!!!!!

Good luck! 

Yore[sic] ol’ Pappy

 

... [More]

Posted Sunday, October 06, 2013 11:00 AM

Pappy's Privy Council

WEEK 05 -- 2013

 

BEST BET Cardinals 

The Titans were a very close second.  The only difference was the strength of their opponents. 

Our Best Bets  have been running about 75%.  This cannot continue!  In handicapping the NFL, 60% is considered exceptional.  Watch out for a correction! 

Good luck! 

Yore[sic] ol’ Pappy

 



Posted Sunday, September 29, 2013 10:42 AM

Pappy's Privy Council

 

BEST BET    Washington

 

The Jaguars should be our Best Bet.  However, we got burned so badly on them last week –- well, let’s just say we’re a bit miffed. 

We’re always harping about going with the math, not our feelings.  And the math says the Jags.  However . . . 

Anyway, in past seasons, week four or five would be a turning point.  From week four or five until about week 12 or so, picks become more accurate. 

We’ll see if this is the week or not.  Right now, our Best Bet picks are running at 66%.  After this week, they’ll be at either 75% or 50%. 

There are some people saying that the Books did so well last week that they’re going to turn on the spigots this week. 

Here’s something to remember related to that above theory.  The customers of the people who set the spread are the Casinos not You!!  

And here’s another important thing to remember.  You’re not competing against the Books or the people who set the spread. In paramutual betting you’re competing against the other bettors! 

Next time you’re standing in line at your favorite Sportsbook, ask the people... [More]

Posted Friday, September 20, 2013 03:16 PM

Pappy's Privy Council

Now remember what I’ve been harping on in previous posts.  The first four or five weeks of the season, you need to be extremely cautious.  There’s just not enough data out there to make accurate predictions. 

This week, week 3, our BEST BET is the JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS 

It’s hard to believe, isn’t it? 

I’ve been real lucky the last coupla weeks with my Best Bet Picks.  But like the stock market, there’s bound to be a correction.  This may be the week! 

Now last week I told you about how the data you get from COVERS is more important than what you get from the NFL Stats page or the LVH supercontest. 

And I told you about looking up the picks made by TOP HANDICAPPERS at COVERS to clue you in on your investments in NFL games. 

Well, I myself learned a little lesson last week.  Train69, in the NFL Betting Forum here had a couple of picks that were opposite of mine.  We agreed on most of our picks, but a coupla his were opposite mine.  

In my arrogance, I just assumed he was wrong and I was right.  That wasn’t the case.  So now, I’m going to read Train69’s forum posts real careful.  Where we disagree, which isn’t all that often –- where we disagree I’m going to recheck my... [More]

Posted Friday, September 13, 2013 11:40 AM

Pappy's Privy Council

Now remember what I’ve been harping on in previous posts.  The first four or five weeks of the season, you need to be extremely cautious.  There’s just not enough data out there to make accurate predictions. 

We lucked out last week with the Bills and the Chiefs.

This week, our BEST BET is the ARIZONA CARDINALS.

It’s hard to believe, isn’t it? 

I couldn’t believe it myself.  But we always go with the math, here.

So when the calculations came up with the Cardinals as the Best Bet, I redid all the work, and it still came up with ARIZONA. 

If you’ve read many of my posts, I’m always yappin’ about going with the math, not feelings.  But I’ve a bad feeling about this week!!!!!  Be real cautious. 

By the way, the SEAHAWKS came up in our calculations as the next best bet. 

In previous posts, I had either SEATTLE or SAN FRANCISCO as going to the Superbowl this season.  So I figured any game with those two teams going head-to-head was going to be too close to call –- interesting to watch, but too close too call.   But this week, that’s not what the math says. 

Like I said, be real cautious with your investments this week. 

... [More]

Posted Saturday, September 07, 2013 01:05 PM

Pappy's Privy Council

Week 1 (2013) 

BEST BET 
 

Bills

 

Chiefs came in as a very close second –- but as always, I gotta go with the math. 

Now remember what I’ve been harping about the last few weeks.  The first four or five weeks of the season, you’ll be extremely lucky just to break even!  And the very first week is not investing; it’s gambling!!

So, save the bulk of your bankroll for investing after week four or five.  That’s when you can make some serious profit.

Good luck!!! 

Yore[sic] ol’ Pappy

 

 



Posted Friday, August 30, 2013 09:36 AM

Pappy's Privy Council

If you’re in my Covers Space, look up your screen just a tad and you’ll see my BOOKMARKS.  Note the one that says “LVH Supercontest.”  After you click into the LVH Supercontest, bookmark it to your own computer.  

Now, remember a coupla  weeks ago  when I paraphrased some scripture?  “If you give a man a pick, he MIGHT win for a day.  If you teach a man to make his own picks, he WILL win for a lifetime.”  Remember, you only have to be successful about 55% of the time when investing in NFL games to show a profit.  Anything above 55%, you’re on a roll.  

So after you move your cursor up to my bookmarks and click the “LVH Supercontest,” here’s what to look for. 

First of all, see the little yellow square that sez “Past Results?”  Click that. 

Now, scan up and down all those years listed.  Look at the winning percentages.  Last year, some guy won over 400 grand with his picks only going about 57.5% !!!!  One guy was in the money at only 52%! 

I make it a point to check out the picks made by three guys in the LVH Supercontest.  FEZZIK won two years running.  I don’t think anyone else has ever done that.  JARHEAD not only won one year, he’s a Marine; I’m a vet of the 1st Infantry Division, and we alw... [More]

Posted Friday, August 23, 2013 07:36 AM

Pappy's Privy Council

Last posting, I clued you in to the NFL Team Stats page, including a clickable link to the page in my Covers Bookmarks.  And I requested you prowl around the NFL Team Stats page to familiarize yourself with the contents. 

But before we begin a discussion of what to do with those stats, let’s go over another issue. 

Many times I’ve been asked why a fellow such as I invests in NFL games.  Friends, family, others, see me as a hyper-intelligent, sensitive, reclusive, bohemian, techie, Science Fiction writer who also happens to be a psychologically disturbed Vietnam Vet (1st Infantry Division –- 1968).  Why would a person like that invest in NFL games. 

I like to reply by using the following “modified” quotation. 

 

If I may be so bold as to PARAPHRASE Mae West.  “When choosing a vice, I always like to select one I’ve never done before.” 

 

And what is a vice I’ve never done before?  Well, let me see now.  Hhhmmm. . .  This is a hard one to answer.  I’ve got it!  Investing in NFL games!  You’ll always get a laugh from your friends when you offer up that explanation. 

Okay, let’s get to the gist of this posting.

A... [More]

Posted Friday, August 16, 2013 03:10 PM

Pappy's Privy Council

If you’re in my Covers Space, look up the screen just a tad and you’ll see my BOOKMARKS.  Note the one that says “NFL Team Stats.”  After you click into the NFL Team Stats page, bookmark it to your own computer. 

Now, remember last week when I paraphrased scripture.  “If you give a man a pick, he MIGHT win for a day.  If you teach a man to make his own picks, he WILL win for a lifetime.  Remember, you only have to be successful about 55% of the time when investing in NFL games to show a profit.  Anything above 55%, you’re on a roll. 

So when you move your cursor up to my bookmarks and click the “NFL Team Stats,” here’s what to look for:

First of all, at the top of your screen, after the regular season begins, you’ll have to change the setting from “preseason” to “2013 regular season.” 

Then, note that the rest of the screen displays the top stats for each category.  Click the “complete list” in any category to get all the respective stats for all the teams. 

Now wander around through the choices.  Begin to form in your mind the stats you’re comfortable in dealing with. 

My next posting here, I’ll tell you what to look for in said stats.

 

Good Luck!

... [More]

Posted Friday, August 09, 2013 01:47 PM

Pappy's Privy Council

Let’s hope I can make it through the 2013 season.  November 2012, I had major surgery and all these many months later, I’m still in recovery.  So I missed much of the 2012 season. 

So, a coupla daze ago I gotta email from one of my nephews.  He wanted me to pick yesterday’s Seahawks game. 

Ima gonna tell you what I told him.  First of all, to paraphrase scripture, “If you give a man a pick, he has a chance of winning for a day.  If you teach a man to make his own picks, he will win for a lifetime.” 

I then told him, IMNSHO, the Seahawks GOTTA SHOT at going to the Superbowl this year.  The problem is, they have to punch through San Francisco to get there.  San Francisco is currently one of my BEST BETS (so far) to make it to the Superbowl.  

I then told my Nephew, I’m not one of those “money management wonks” that’s always yakkin’ about saving your bankroll.  HOWEVER!!  During the preseason, keep your investments small!  Save most your coin for the regular season. 

You’ve got no advantage during the preseason.  It’s gambling in the truest sense.  It’s fun, but the odds are pretty even, with a slight edge going to the house. 

And here’s another bit of ad-vice.  I harped on this ... [More]

Posted Monday, July 22, 2013 06:04 PM

Pappy's Privy Council

Okay -- the post just below this one is left over from last season.  So the comment about replacement refs is no longer in play.  However, the rest of the post still factors into the upcoming season.

Unlike many of the touts and wags and handicappers and such who park their ads in Covers Website forum, I ask no payment for my picks.  Some of you might reply that "One gets what they pay for."   That may be true.  However . . .

So now I'm going to ask for some payment up front, before the 2013 season even starts.   I write Science Fiction, and in trade for the picks and advice I give in future, I ask that you read and perhaps follow the following.


   Please forgive me my considerable conceit in making this post.  BEWILDERING STORIES, a Science-Fiction webzine, has just published my short story, “Souled Out by C.E. Gee.”

IMNSHO this story is my favorite and best piece of fiction ever to be published.  Since “Souled Out” is flash fiction, it takes only about three minutes to read!   I humbly invite you to goto   http://www.bewilderingstories.com.  Within their issue #534 and in their Flash Fiction Department, I sincerely hope you’ll find and read said story. Many thanx

If you yourself don't read Science Fiction, perhaps you can recommend my story to a friend who does read such.

My next post here will probably be during the pre-season. Until ... [More]

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User: chuckgee
Joined: September 2006
Location: Nevada
Team: Baltimore Ravens
Occupation: Degenerate

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