CFL Week 16 Thoughts and Pick

Edmonton at Toronto +4.5

 

Why the hell do the bookmakers keep making Edmonton favorites by more than 3 points week after week?  In their last 9 games Edmonton’s largest margin of victory has been by 4 points, and on the road all season their largest margin is 5.  This is a team that doesn’t know how to win convincingly anymore.  I know the Argos are a horrible 1-9 in their last 10 games but if you look at their play at home they are very competitive.  4 of their last 5 home games this season have been close and have gone down to the wire.  The only exception was 2 weeks ago vs. Montreal and you can’t blame them for that, because Montreal has been bulldozing their way to victory vs. everybody the last month.  All the numbers point to a close game between these 2 teams, so I’ll take the Argos +4.5.

 

Saskatchewan at Calgary –3.5

 

Saskatchewan’s been a mystery on the road this season, especially in BC where they are now 0-2, however they did win their last game in Calgary in week 5.  Just a very hard team for me to read.  Calgary on the other hand haven’t played this poorly since starting the season 0-2.  Two weeks ago they won a 1 point game at home vs. Hamilton, th... [More]

CFL Week 14 Thoughts and Pick

Edmonton at Winnipeg +5

 

In order for Edmonton to cover this game they must win by 6 points.  So how many games have the Eskimos won by 6 points this season…….one, and it wasn’t on the road.  Yep, the only 6+ point win was at home vs. Montreal in week 5 and given how good Montreal has been this season you have to think that Montreal’s level of play in that game had more to do with this loss than Edmonton’s level of play.  So given this fact you would think Winnipeg should cover this week right?  Think again.  Winnipeg did win vs. the worst team in the CFL last week, but they’re still haunted by all their bad home field results before that game.  45 point loss to Saskatchewan….27 point loss to Montreal…14 point loss to Toronto….I’m not yet convinced that this team has officially turned around their home field woes.  Winnipeg also have not won 2 games in a row this season.

 

Saskatchewan at BC –1.5

 

I think Saskatchewan will win this one, but I won’t put any money on it.  Saskatchewan continues to be one of the best road teams in the league this year, but I still don’t know how they lost that game in BC in week 6, after they won in Calgary the week before.  The Lion... [More]

CFL Week 13 Thoughts and Pick

Montreal at Hamilton +4

 

Hamilton have now won 5 in a row at home and are rolling along nicely.  Montreal should be their toughest home field test the season since they started their win streak back in week 3.  Montreal have the best record in the CFL but their road play has been inconsistent.  They got off to a good start away from home with good wins in Calgary and Saskatchewan, but their last 3 road games have been up and down.  In week 5 they lost badly to an Edmonton team, which was not playing well at the time.  Two weeks later they won nicely vs. Winnipeg, then after their Bye week lost in BC.  Then last week at home they dominated Winnipeg in a game which I thought Winnipeg would make a little more competitive given that the Al’s were as strong at home in the previous 2 home games vs, BC and Saskatchewan, but apparently not.   Montreal is 10-1 in their last 11 meetings against the Ti-Cats.  Don’t know which Montreal team will show up, so I’ll lay off this one.

 

BC at Calgary –8

 

With the exception of one game in Hamilton in week 5, BC’s been a very competitive road team this season.  They’ve won in Edmonton and Toronto, and lost close games in Saskat... [More]

Week 12 CFL Thoughts and Picks

Calgary at Hamilton +4

 

Hamilton wins at home and Calgary plays nothing but close games on the road lately, so with the line at +4 for the home team, I’m going with the Ti-cats here.  Hamilton has won 4 in a row at home, and a couple of those games were vs. teams coming off good road victories.  Calgary may or may not win this game straight up, but their last 3 road games have been close.  They’ve won and lost close games in Edmonton over the last month and won a close 3 point game in Toronto after their bye week.  

 

Toronto at BC –7.5

 

BC’s played good the last 2 games vs. Montreal but can they keep it up….don’t know.  If the team that showed up vs. Montreal and Saskatchewan comes to play then they can cover the 7.5 easily.  If they team that showed up vs. Winnipeg and Calgary comes to play, probably not.  Bottom line, BC’s very inconsistent at home.  Toronto’s lost 2 in a row on the road.  Both of those losses came against good home teams like Montreal and Hamilton, both have a combined home record of 9-0 in their last 9 home games.  The Argo’s have proven that vs. the right team or situation that they are capable of winning on the road like they did... [More]

CFL Week 11 Thoughts

Hamitlon at Toronto +1   The bookmakers were bang on with this line.  Hamilton have lost 3 in a row on the road while the Argos have haven't won at home in over a year, but despite their poor road and home records, those numbers are a bit misleading.  If you look at Toronto's last 3 home losses dating back to week 5, all 3 games were close and were decided in the final minute.  Hamilton's last 2 road losses were also close vs Edmonton and Saskatchewan, so it's not a far fetched theory to suggest that this game will probaby end up close as well.  Toronto is 9-1 at home vs Hamilton in their last 10 home meetings.   Calgary at Edmonton +2   Another good line by the bookmakers when you consider that 4 out the the last 5 games have been decided by 3 points or less (the other game was within 5).  Calgary's last 2 road games were decided by 3 points, while Edmonton's last 2 home games were also close, so a close game here again isn't out of the question.  Calgary's road play is dependent on the level of their opponent this season.  They win vs. slumping teams like Toronto and BC and lost vs. Edmonton and Winnipeg (coming off a good week 1 game).  Edmonton's been pretty good at home this season going 4-1 so expect another tough challenge for the Stamps this week.   BC at Montreal -10   Much like Calgary, BC on the road will play to the level of their opponent (except in Edmon... [More]

CFL Labour Day Thoughts

Toronto at Hamilton
Toronto's a bad team (1-6 in their last 7), and Hamilton's a good team at home winning their last 3.  But for some reason Toronto really seems to have Hamilton's number especially in Hamilton on Labour Day.  I know that Toronto's team isn't as good now as it has been in previous years and Hamilton a much better team now than they were in the past, but that horrible week 1 loss at home vs. Toronto is still lingering over me.  If I told you that Hamilton would be playing Toronto, BC, Edmonton, and Winnipeg at home and they were only going to lose to one of these teams, Toronto would be that last team on the list....but they did.   The -5 line also looks a bit nasty as well so if you're going to pick Hamilton, play with caution.
Edmonton at Calgary
This will only be the 4th road game of the season for the Eskimos.  They've have a pretty wobbley time on the road this season losing bad in Montreal, playing bad in Saskatchewan (but winning), then playing good in Hamilton (but losing).  At home this season, Calgary has mostly played to their level of their opponent, winning vs. under .500 teams like Winnipeg and Toronto, and losing vs. decent competitive teams like Montreal and Saskatchewan.  I'd like to say that you should pick Calgary, because they're the home team, it's Labour Day, and Labour Day games are a big deal in the CFL.  But recently Calgary doesn't have a dominant history over that past 6 years of winning at home vs. Edmonton like BC does... [More]

Week 8 CFL thoughts

CFL has usually been an easy sport for me to cap, but the last 2 seasons have been rough for some reason.  Oh well, got to keep plugging away I guess.   Saskatchewan at Montreal -12   Sask. has been a very inconsistent team the last few weeks.  3 weeks ago the scored a victory in Calgary vs. a hot Stampeder team, then lost by 2 touchdowns the next week in BC vs. a weak Lion team.  Then last Sunday they played an excellent 1st half of football vs Hamilton, then almost blew it in the 2nd half.  On the other side one thing that hasn't been inconsistent is Montreal's play.  Yea, they had one stinker in Edmonton, but other than that, they've been pretty solid, winning all their games by 13 points or more.    12 points might look a little scary, but Montreal at home have won all 3 games by 13 or more points, while Saskatchewan have lost 2/3 games by 15+ points (including a 33 point loss at home vs. Montreal) so a 12+ point victory is certainly possible.  Montreal is 5-1 in their last 6 home meetings vs. Saskatchewan.   Winnipeg at BC -7.5   Winnipeg's has been playing bad football the last 5 weeks posting a 1-4 record.  Their only win was in Toronto 3 weeks ago and they were kinda of lucky because Toronto had 7 turnovers in that game so realistically speaking Winnipeg should probably be 0-4 on the road.  BC's been too inconsistent for me ... [More]

Week 6 CFL Thoughts

Toronto Argos at Montreal Al's -13   As I expected, Toronto's 14 point win in Winnipeg in week 4 did not interpret itself into a home field win in week 5.  Too much inconsistency from this Argo team on the road for me to fade or ride them.  14 point win in Winnpeg.....good.  35 point loss in Calgary.....bad.  13 point win in Hamilton....good.  What happens in Montreal....don't know.  That might be dependent on which Montreal team shows up this week.  Will Montreal bounce back from last week's clusterfuck in Edmonton?  Or could be the beginning of a downward trend?   Saskatchewan Roughriders at BC Lions -1   Based on the first 5 weeks it seems like Saskatchewan is a far better team on the road than they are at home.  Despite 2 losses at home vs. Montreal and Edmonton, the Rougies have had 2 very good road performances in Toronto and Calgary resulting in a 2-0 road record.  BC is the worst team in the CFL and are 0-2 at home.  Lions lost the first game vs Hamilton in week 2 then got blown out in week 4 vs. Calgary by 38 points.  This looks like the easiest game on the schedule this week as as betting on a Sask. win.  Of course I also thought that Winnipeg was an easy victory vs Toronto in week 4 and well......   Edmonton Eskimos -1 at Hamilton Ti-Cats   After their week 1 bad loss, the Ti-Cats are playing much better football, especia... [More]

Week 5 CFL Thoughts

Montreal Al's -5 at Edmonton Eskimos
After 1 month of play Montreal is by far the class of the league, with everyone else being a distant 2nd.  Of course when your betting on a team off to this good of a start you kinda worry about when or if this team is going to take their foot off the gas pedal soon.  However with the line being at just -5 it seems like this should be somewhat of a safe bet.  Montreal have won all 4 of their games by 13 points or more this season.
Despite winning in Saskatchewan last week, Edmonton still has a lot of issues.  They're only a .500 team so far, but even that winning percentage is a  bit flattering.  Their first win at home vs. Winnipeg was by the skin of their teeth and last week they fell behind 22-0 early before they came back to win.  And then of course there are the 2 bad losses vs. Montreal and BC by a combined margin of 52 points.  
Plainly put, Montreal is a better football team playing better football right now, so I'll go with the Al's this week.
BC Lions -3 at Hamilton Ti-Cats
After a bad start, the Ti-Cats seem to be playing a lot better in their last 3 games vs. BC, Winnipeg, and Montreal.  Hamilton's off to a better start than the Lions this season, and have already won a game in BC.  However the books don't seem to care because they're still 3 point dogs at home this week.  If you're puzzled about the line, it's simply because of one thing and one thing only.......reputation.  Over the past 5 years the Lions ... [More]

Week 4 CFL Thoughts

Hamilton at Montreal -14   It should be pretty obvious that the Al's will win this game straight up, but the real question here is which teams will show up this week?    Will Montreal bring their A-Game with them like they have the last 2 weeks or will they show a little pity for their weak opponents and take their foot of the gas pedal a bit.    Will the same Hamilton team who have been competitve the last 2 weeks show up this Thursday, or will the Ti-Cat team that layed an egg against Toronto on opening night show up instead.  After so many years of being lousy, I'm just not ready to trust Hamilton yet to predict which Ti-Cat team will show up.    Montreal have won all 3 of their games by 13+ points while Hamilton havn't lost by more than 2 TD's yet this season.   Toronto at Winnipeg -4   Probably the best game on the board for Winnipeg bettors.  Toronto has looked lousy in their last 2 games getting beaten up in double digits twice.    Although just 1-2, Winnipeg has been decently competitive so far this season.  Winnipeg did a good job on home field 2 weeks ago against a Calgary team off to slow start, so they should do well against a Toronto team which has started to weaken a bit the last 2 games.   Calgary at BC +3.5   These 2 games are a mirror image of each other.  Both teams played poorly their first 2 games and fell to 0-... [More]

CFL week 3 thoughts

2-1 to start the season.  Lost first week when Montreal won in Calgary, but bounced back with Winnipeg and Montreal the next week   BC at Edmonton - both teams looked lousy in their first 2 games so this one's a layoff.  Edmonton's tempting but that -5 it too big when you consider BC's lost both games by a combined margin of 7 points and Edmonton's only win was by 2   Toronto at Calgary - Another layoff.  Toronto was lousy last week and Calgary's also off to a bad start so who knows what will happen   Montreal at Saskatchewan - Saskatchewan getting 3.5 points is a good play.  Montreal did win in Calgary but the 13 points win was misleading because the game was tied after 3 quarters and calgary almost went down the field near the end of the game and came close to taking a late lead.  If you look at the head to head history between these 2 teams, you'll see that Montreal rarely wins big in Saskatchewan.   Winnipeg at Hamilton - Kinda like the Winnipeg here.  Winnpeg looked good vs Calgary last game and almost won on the road in Edmonton 2 weeks ago.  Hamilton did win in BC, but BC's off to a sloppy start.  Don't forget their first home game of the season where they lost by 13 vs. those friggen awful Argos (really a 20 point win if you don't want to include that garbage TD Hamilton scored in the end).  Winnipeg has won 7 of their last 8 games vs Hamilton... [More]