Edmonton at Winnipeg +5

In order for Edmonton to cover this game they must win by 6 points.  So how many games have the Eskimos won by 6 points this season…….one, and it wasn’t on the road.  Yep, the only 6+ point win was at home vs. Montreal in week 5 and given how good Montreal has been this season you have to think that Montreal’s level of play in that game had more to do with this loss than Edmonton’s level of play.  So given this fact you would think Winnipeg should cover this week right?  Think again.  Winnipeg did win vs. the worst team in the CFL last week, but they’re still haunted by all their bad home field results before that game.  45 point loss to Saskatchewan….27 point loss to Montreal…14 point loss to Toronto….I’m not yet convinced that this team has officially turned around their home field woes.  Winnipeg also have not won 2 games in a row this season.

Saskatchewan at BC –1.5

I think Saskatchewan will win this one, but I won’t put any money on it.  Saskatchewan continues to be one of the best road teams in the league this year, but I still don’t know how they lost that game in BC in week 6, after they won in Calgary the week before.  The Lions are still a very inconsistent, hard to read team at home.   At home, the Lions tend to play well vs. the good teams, and not so well vs. the bad.

Montreal at Toronto +10

Over their last 4 games at home, Toronto have had a trend of playing in very close games that have gone down to the wire, so that +10 line could be attractive to Argo bettors.  Unfortunately the Hamilton Tiger Cats had a trend of winning all their games at home until the Al’s came to town and blew them out of the building.  Will Toronto continue to play close games at home, or will Montreal come in and buck another team’s home trend?  

Hamilton at Calgary –7.5

This is the only game I like this week.  Hamilton’s lost 4 in a row on the road.  2 of those losses were close, while the other 2 were in double digits.  The 2 double digit wins were against Saskatchewan and Montreal, while the 2 close games were against a Toronto team which hadn’t won in over a year at home, and against Edmonton of a bye week (anyone who caps football on a regular basis knows that most teams play unusually different when coming off a bye).  Calgary’s won 3 in a row at home vs. BC, Edmonton, and Winnipeg.  All 3 of those games were won by 8+ points.  I don’t think this game will be a huge cover, but Calgary should get the job done.  If it doesn’t cover, I’ll probably miss it by around 1 point.  Calgary have won 4 in a row at home vs. Hamilton.