clubtnt's Blog

Posted Monday, September 09, 2013 05:17 PM

TNT's NFL Trends

There is no silver bullet in sports betting. In order to beat the sports books, one would have to pick better than 11 to 10 odds, or approximately 54%. It sounds easy but is very difficult in practice. The great Billy Walters only claims a 54% success rate. The annual winners in the Hilton Supercontest, which is the World Series of Poker for sports bettors, barely hit 65%. Even God himself couldn’t pick better than 70%.

That being said, I’ve been looking at NFL statistics from the past four seasons in order to find trends. The statistics used are points in a game, spreads, totals, division/non-division games, and day of the week that the game is played. It does not use such things as injuries, passing yards, coaching changes, etc. The eight trends I’ve identified are titled:

Big Spread Range Dog (Last 2 Weeks)Fifty Point SwingLarge Home Dog (+7 or Better)Large Dogs (+15 or Better)Take Road Team (-3 or better) Against Home Team that’s Covered Two ConsecutiveRoad Favorite After ByeThursday Night UndersFade Sandwich Team that Won Straight Up

The Trends

Big Spread Range Dog (Last 2 Weeks) - This is a variation of a Dan Gordon trend where the spread range is determined by a team’s coverage of the spread. (See his book “Beat the Sports Book” for an explanation.) However, Gordon only applies it to the first four weeks of season. This trend applies the Spread Range Score concept to a team’s most recent two weeks.

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