combato's Blog

Posted 20 hours, 14 minutes ago

Sharps vs Semi Sharps in FSU/LV game

As I said in a previous post, it is somewhat difficult to discern where the truly sharp money is on the LV/FSU game tonight.

It appears now that the truly sharp money bet Louisville in the +6.5 to +7 range early in the week.  This was followed by steam chasing semi sharp money on LV all the way down to where it is currently is now.  Public, being stupid, will have likely bet on FSU all the way down since the FSU consensus all week as been in the 70% range.

Do NOT be surprised to see truly sharp money begin hit FSU before kickoff if the line gets to -3, setting up a possible middle for the sharp money players ( LV at +6.5 and FSU at -3 for a nice middle spread).

I am passing the game as stated earlier but this will a fascinating game to watch from a market read perspective.





Posted Thursday, October 30, 2014 10:18 AM

Playing Carolina +3 tonight vs New Orleans



Posted Wednesday, October 29, 2014 11:13 PM

FSU vs Louisville ( NO PLAY)

Normally, I would be all over Louisville in this game but I am very concerned about the "trendiness" of playing on LV on Thurs.

1.  We are entering phase 3 of the season when favorites begin to reassert themselves and dogs become slightly less attractive.  You really have to pick your spots to play the dogs from here on in as described in the previous post.

2.  The world of the "semi sharps" will like Louisville tomorrow.  Public will be on FSU, the semi sharps will be on LV, and I cannot tell for certain where the true sharps will be.  This game screams "no play" to me, even though I really do like LV in this game.

3.  Many on line "experts" and "touts" have had this game circled for weeks as a spot to finally see FSU get upset.  Seems way way too obvious to me to play LV.

I am passing this one.  Much better games await later this week.

Posted Monday, October 27, 2014 06:41 AM

NFL Record Update

A decent day in the NFL on Sunday going 5 wins and 3 losses

Winners were posted on blog as always and were Carolina, Cincy, Arizona, Pittsburgh, and New Orleans

Losers were St Louis, Jacksonville, Tennessee


NFL Record for year posted on the blog is 30 wins and 23 losses = WP 57%

Posted Sunday, October 26, 2014 12:00 PM

Adding Tennessee +3.5 for 10/26/16



Posted Sunday, October 26, 2014 05:27 AM

CFB _ Things to Watch Now

We are about to enter the stage of the season that traditionally been the most difficult for me to handicap.

To account for this, I will be tightening up my criteria in attempt to eliminate the kinds of games that have given me trouble in the past.

I will be avoiding most teams in the bottom 3rd of power ratings unless they are playing another team who is equally poor.

I will cutting down my limit for point spread play and will probably only get involved in games of 7 points or less.

The end result will likely be fewer games but I dont like to set a limit on how many games to play but instead, just focus on the kinds of games that have given me trouble in the past during this part of the season.

Also, avoid teams where the coach is likely to be fired which means Michigan, Florida, Wash State and while I think Strong probably has another year at Texas, I would not be surprised to see him gone either.  

A few words on Texas Tech - Program in free fall

The hilarious thing is Kliff Kingsbury was signed to a 10 year contract at Texas Tech at the start of the season.  This was after he went 8-5 for one season but lost nearly every game with a serious conference opponent.  TTU did pull an upset in the Holiday Bowl which landed him a 10 yr extension, even though this his first head coaching job.  Everyone sees it now but they are stuck with him, enjoying another sweet drink of Kingsbury Kool-Aide and 82 points surre... [More]

Posted Sunday, October 26, 2014 05:08 AM

CFB Update

Rough day on Sat as some regression to the mean began to occur.  This was the second time this year that I hit a less than 40% winners in colleges

Counting Thursday night winner in CFB, I went 3 Wins and 6 Losses bringing my yearly total to 55 Wins, 39 Losses for a total of 59%

Winners were Miami Fl, Illinois, and Utah
Losers were Maryland, Texas (terrible offense for anyone who watched), San Jose State, So Miss, Wash State, Hawaii.

This weekend signals the beginning of what I call the phase 3 stage of the season.  I will be playing fewer games from now as good teams get ready to play rivals and for conference titles and bowl games.    Some teams have clearly quit (Texas, Texas Tech, Maryland, Washington State, ) and the less talented teams lack of  depth is beginning to show.(San Jose State,).

I look to hit about 55% of games between now and the beginning of the bowl season.... [More]

Posted Saturday, October 25, 2014 11:01 PM

NFL Plays for Sun 10/26/14

St Louis +7
Carolina +5.5
Jacksonville +7
Cincy +2
Arizona -1
Pittsburgh +3.5
New Orleans -2.5 

Posted Saturday, October 25, 2014 07:20 AM

Scratching ODU for Today

Line action is weird on this game now.  Looks very odd.

Since I don't know for sure what it means, I am pulling off ODU to be safe since I don't like
to lay this many points most of the time and this time of line action makes me nervous

Posted Friday, October 24, 2014 09:05 PM

CFB Plays for Sat 10/25/14

Illinois +5.5 vs Minn
Maryland +11 vs Wisconsin
Texas +10 vs K State
San Jose State +9 vs Navy
So Miss +9.5 vs La Tech
Old Dominion +13.5 vs W Kentucky
Wash St +3 vs Arizona
Utah (P) vs USC
Hawaii +3 vs Nevada



Posted Thursday, October 23, 2014 04:31 PM

Playing Miami Fl -2 tonight



Posted Sunday, October 19, 2014 07:25 AM

CFB Update 10/19/14

Had the best CFB week of the season going 11 Wins and 2 Loss ( after adjusting for the late scratches posted on the blog on Sat which scratched OU and WKY

Winners were SJ State, So Miss, BC, Ohio, W Mich, Maryland, Pitt, Houston, New Mexico, LSU. North Carolina

Losers were Virginia and Hawaii

Season Record to date in CFB is 52 Wins, 33 Losses.

Check the Covers contest for all the leans

Posted Saturday, October 18, 2014 10:07 PM

NFL for Sunday 10/19/14

Cincy +3
Jax +5.5
St Louis +6
Minnesota +5
Miami +5
NY Giants +6.5
Pittsburgh -3 (Monday Night)

Posted Saturday, October 18, 2014 08:19 PM

Questions about leans

Several people have asked me about "leans" - which side looks the best even if I am not playing it

What I do is I play all of my leans and regular plays in the Covers contest.  I don't have a set time that I turn all of them in but if anyone wants to check where the leans are, they will be in the Covers NCAA contest along with the regular plays.

Currently I in the upper 3% of contestants for CFB and about a bit less in the NFL.   I don't play to try to win the contest but I do use as a way to point out that my handicapping is okay and not a lot of BS like we see on the forums.

NFL Record on the Blog thus far this season is 25 Wins and 20 Losses for a 56% WP (about where I expect to be over a large number of plays so things are on target up to this point)
Will have CFB updated record later tonight or tomorrow.

Posted Saturday, October 18, 2014 06:25 PM

Adding LSU -11 vs Kentucky



Posted Saturday, October 18, 2014 05:40 PM

Adding Hawaii +9 vs SD State



Posted Saturday, October 18, 2014 05:27 PM

Adding Southern MIss +8

Southern Miss +8 - not the greatest team by any means but UNT is pretty weak too.

May drive over tonight and watch this one in person.

Posted Saturday, October 18, 2014 04:38 PM

UNC -2.5 vs Ga Tech

So why am I taking North Carolina and laying 2.5 vs Ga Tech?
Looks to me like some sharp money likes UNC and therefore, so do I.

Posted Saturday, October 18, 2014 03:39 PM

Virginia Head Coach continues to blow game

Mike London, head coach at Va, continues to impress me (negatively0 with his disorganized, and undisciplined approach to coaching.

He personally lost the game with his team being unable to function in the last 2 minutes.  Penalties, delay of game, dumb calls allowed Duke to come from behind and win.

What a dumbass!!





Posted Saturday, October 18, 2014 02:37 PM

Add New Mexico +7.5



Posted Saturday, October 18, 2014 11:27 AM

Late Breaking - Scratch OU and W Kentucky



Posted Friday, October 17, 2014 10:56 PM

Getting Lazy on the BLog

Hit Pitt winner last night
On Houston tonight but I laid -9 after it opened at -6.  Would be nice to anticipate games BEFORE they move.

Tomorrow, here a few games that I will be on for sure

Maryland -5 vs Iowa  ( sharp $ looks like MD as well early line move on MD)  Maryland has some speed this year and will probably just out speed the plodding Hawkeyes.

OU -7 - I love to bet really good teams when the public is pissed at them.  OU is a good team but square bettors have driven the line from OU -10 to OU -7.  Not often we get value like - Unloved Favs are not as good as they used to be however.  Still, not terrible and I am playing OU.  Blow out of KState

W KY -4- Low visibilty game with a lot of reasons to play WKY

Va + 3 vs Duke - Everybody loves Duke.  Some love Va.  Va has a moron for coach while Duke has this years favorite genius as their coach.  Duke has an offense as but VA can play defense, even with an idiot for a head coach.  Looks like Va to me.

3 MAC Games that all look the same -  MAC dogs that are bet early have been money in the bank this year.
Western Michigan has been fantastic,  Ohio less so but not horrible.   (still, I refuse to play Kent under any circumstances)
Pick these 3 games and you most likely hit 2 for a winner/

BC +5.5 vs Clemson - Lemme tell you, BC is one tough bunch.  They run the ball down your throat and then s... [More]

Posted Monday, October 13, 2014 07:41 PM

NFL Butt Kicking ( 1 win, 5 losses )



Posted Sunday, October 12, 2014 06:38 AM

CFB Update

Went  6 wins, 5 losses on the blog

Winners were, Duke, BC, TCU, W Mich, Michigan, USC

Losers were Ga State, Ohio, Indiana, UCLA, Florida

Record on blog for season stands at 46 Wins, 31 Losses (60%)

Posted Saturday, October 11, 2014 10:26 PM

NFL for Sunday 10/12/14

Cleveland -1 ( consider a ML play here)
Miami +2.5 ( consider a ML play here)
Buffalo +2.5 ( another ML possibility)

Wash +3.5
Atlanta -3

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User: combato
Joined: October 2001
Location: Texas
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