combato's Blog

Posted 4 hours, 22 minutes ago

CFB 9/14/14

Making a conditional play tonight.  Going to take UConn but only if can get at least +3 for the points.  If the line is still +2.5 about 15 min before game time, then I am taking UConn on the money line (+120 at 5 Dimes and Diamond).

UConn has 3 criteria in their favor and I have 0 criteria pointing to South Florida.   This would normally be considered a low visibility game but since it is the only game in town tonight, more people will be watching each team tonight than for entire remainder of the season.

When this happens, it is probably best to treat the game like any High Visiblity game which means play UConn.

Posted Thursday, September 18, 2014 07:27 AM

Thursday PM 9/18/2014

Both games tonight

Kansas State +9 vs Auburn (3*)

Tampa Bay +6.5 vs Atlanta (5* )

Posted Monday, September 15, 2014 11:36 PM

NFL Update

Philly was a winner on Monday night

NFL Record for the year is 12 Wins and 3 Losses

This is coming off last year's 60% winning season for the NFL season.

Hey, I think I may be doing something right - but I am curious to see how long this hot run can continue.

Posted Monday, September 15, 2014 04:03 PM

Monday Night 9/15/14

I remember when Monday night games used to be the games I would "load up on" in a desperate attempt to "get even for the week".

Those days are gone now that I have learned more about how to bet this game.   I don't  bet money on Monday night games unless there is a pretty good reason.

Tonight, I am playing Philadelphia at +3 but no less than +3.  If the line drops to +2.5, pass the game.  
I rate Philly tonight as a 2 star play which means roughly a 55% chance to cover the number.

Posted Sunday, September 14, 2014 09:02 PM

Update on NFL Games for Today

Went 4 -1 today on the posts here on the blog

Brings my NFL total for the year to 11 wins and 3 losses posted here on the blog.

College Results thus far are 25 Wins and 14 losses posted here on the blog.

Regression is lurking since I know my long term win pct is typically around 55 to 56%.  But this year, my picks are in orbit but they will ultimately feel the gravitational pull of randomness and bring my picks down to a more realistic level.

Posted Sunday, September 14, 2014 12:42 PM

NFL Scratches and Additions (Updated Games

Scratching Cincy,  and Wash.
Current plays are as follows

Carolina (P)
Minn +5
Clev +6
SD +5
Jets +9

Posted Sunday, September 14, 2014 11:51 AM

Late Changes to NFL

Going to scratch NYG as a play today

Adding Oakland +3 and Minnesota +3

Posted Saturday, September 13, 2014 11:36 PM

Updated Results from Sat CFB 9/13/14

Another decent day in CFB going 6 wins and 4 losses (60% ) for the weekend.

Brings my overall college score to 26 Wins and 14 Losses on the blog ( 65% for the year)

Wins for this week were La Tech, Syracuse, Virginia, So Carolina, Fla Atlantic, Rutgers, and Texas

Losses were Toledo, Maryland, Central Florida, Texas Tech

Also, this makes three consecutive winning weekends -  My modified approach has caused my number of plays to decrease slightly but my win pct thus far has been consistent. Interesting season to say the least.

Posted Saturday, September 13, 2014 09:45 PM

NFL Plays for Sunday 9/14/14

Carolina -2.5 vs Det
NY Giants +2 vs Arizona
Cleveland +6 vs NO
Cincy -5.5 vs Atl
SD +5 vs Sea
NY Jets +7.5 vs GB
Wash -6 vs Jax

Posted Saturday, September 13, 2014 06:35 AM

9/13/14 Saturday Update

Rutgers +3 vs Penn St

Posted Saturday, September 13, 2014 06:31 AM

Sat AM 9/13/14

So far this week, I am 1 - 1 ( Winner on La Tech, Loser on Toledo ) in CFB

I am adding some games and the list below is my current list of games I am playing this week.

Central Florida +10 vs Mizz (4*)
South Florida +1.5 vs NC State (3*)
Florida Atlantic (P) vs Tulsa (4*)
Texas +8 vs UCLA (4*)
Syracuse -5 vs Central Mich (2*)
So Carolina +7 vs Georgia (4 *)
Texas Tech (P) vs Arkansas (6*)
Virginia +6.5 vs Louisville (2 *)
Maryland -3.5 vs West Va (2 *)

Posted Friday, September 12, 2014 03:14 PM

Friday PM 9/12/14

Adding Toledo +10 vs Cincinnati

Normally, I would pass a game with a MAC team against a non MAC opponent and esp one in double digits.

However, the numbers on this game are too enticing to pass up so I have decided to waive my "no double digit" rule.

We have a very clear reverse line movement on Toledo as well as evidence of sharp betting on Toledo early in the week.
The money at the sharper books is much heavier on Toledo than the money at the square books which points strongly to Toledo.

The consensus moderately favors Toledo and the line movement looks very much like sharper money pounding a double digit dog against an opponent is playing their first game (Cincy).

Toledo looked decent on offense last week but the Toledo defense could not handle the Missouri offense at all.  CIncy will be clear step down from Missouri so I would not be surprised to see Toledo play well.  Toledo turned the ball over a lot at Mizz and would have probably been more competitive if not for the turnovers.

Posted Friday, September 12, 2014 11:06 AM

NCAA 9/13/14

Several games look very interesting this weekend.
The most interesting game to me is Texas Tech -1.5 vs Arkansas.
I actually have this game as the strongest play of the year for me - all the way up to 7 stars ( I never bet more than 5 stars but I have never seen so many criteria on the same side of a game )
I will play TTU -1.5 as a normal 5 * play

Other plays are
Central Florida +10 vs Mizz 4*
Maryland -3.5 vs West Va 4 *
Virginia +3.5 vs Louisville 3*
South Carolina +6.5 vs Georgia

One interesting note - I posted some comments on the Covers forum saying that  liked TTU in this game.  The response was overwhelmingly negative with lots of "you are an idiot " remarks.  I do this on purpose to get a feel for public sentiment as well as the intensity of the sentiment.

 Everyone and his dog loves Arkansas and they love Arkansas a lot !!  Good idea to go the other way because Vegas does not give money away.  Last year, it was BYU vs Texas.  The year before it was West Va vs TTU.  Every year, this situation comes up and the unloved team often comes home with the money.

Reason to play TTU - Defensive lineman missed the first two games.  Will be back for this one.   Kingsury has been showing none of his playbook to date.  It will be opened this week vs Ark.   TTU fan support is now back to the Leach era support and look for the home crowd to play a role in this one.  TTU... [More]

Posted Wednesday, September 10, 2014 08:13 AM

9/11/14 NCAA

Going with La Tech +3.5 vs North Texas

Posted Monday, September 08, 2014 06:08 PM

NFL Monday 9/8/14

Playing Arizona -2.5 tonight vs SD

Posted Sunday, September 07, 2014 09:53 PM

NFL Sunday Results and Overall Record

I am surprised at going 7 wins, 1 loss on Sunday in the NFL.
While that is very good, we are still at the start of the season so there is a high likelihood of my picks regressing to the mean.

In other words, a losing streak may be imminent.  But it doesn't have to start next weekend either.

Probably won't have any plays for Monday night but I will post here if I do.

Public record on this blog is as follows:

CFB 19 Wins, 9 Losses
NFL 7 Wins, 1 Loss

Posted Sunday, September 07, 2014 12:16 PM

NFL Add On

Adding Carolina +3 vs TB

Posted Sunday, September 07, 2014 08:09 AM

College FB Summary for 9/6/14

Off to a very nice start for the year
Plays for Saturday went 6-4
Including weekly games, the results were 8 - 4

Betting 1 unit per star would have netted 33 units won versus 17 units ( does not factor in the juice but you can see it was a pretty good day in terms of units actually won.

For the year and as documented in the Covers Contest at 19-9 ( around 68%) for the year for CFB.

I like to use the Contest as a form of documentation.  It also puts to rest any controversy about the point spread used to calculate winners and losers. 

Playing in the contest is also a way to measure one's ability to get a decent line or one's willingness to take the worst of a line that may still be a strong play but a less favorable number.

Posted Sunday, September 07, 2014 07:02 AM

NFL Games Sunday 9/7

Atl + 3 vs NO
Stl -3 ( will pass game if can't a better line than -3)
Clev +7
Buff +7 vs Ch
Miami +4.5 vs NE
Tenn +3 vs KC
Hou -3 vs Wash

Posted Saturday, September 06, 2014 11:22 AM

Adding Another Game for Sat

Georgia St -2 vs New Mexicon State

Posted Saturday, September 06, 2014 07:05 AM

Sept 6, 2014 - Saturday Plays

All of these plays could change based on last minute action but as of now, these are my plays for today.
Currently 13 - 5 in the Covers NCAA contest which reflects the games I am playing with my own bankroll

SMU +2.5 vs UNT ( 3 *)

Central Michigan +3.5 vs Purdue (3*)

Toledo +3.5 vs Missouri ( 4*)

Illinois -5 vs Western Ky (3 *)

South Alabama -3 vs Kent (3*)

NIU +6.5 vs Northwestern (5*)

Oregon -12 vs Mich State ( 4*)

Ohio State -11.5 vs Va Tech (4*)

Boise State -9 vs Colo State (5*)

Posted Friday, September 05, 2014 05:56 PM

Friday, Sept 5, 2014

Playing Nevada +3 vs Wash St as 3 * play ( My star rating this year is 1 being lowest and 5 being highest.  Very few 5 * this year because I am using much tighter criteria to make my plays).

Nothing overly unique about this play.  Basically, this is a combination of line move and consensus that points to a home dog on a Friday night.
Line move looks very public as well the consensus.  Sucker parlay money is overwhelmingly on  WSU which also points to Nevada.
Play Nevada but no crazy betting for me tonight.

Posted Tuesday, September 02, 2014 06:09 AM

Thurs PM Plays

No NFL Plays on Thursday.

CFB - I am putting this game up on Tues AM.

UTSA is short on talent but long on heart and is well coached.  This is one team you can always count on 100%, even if the talent gap is usually present.

Playing at home against Arizona will be huge game for UTSA  but just another game for Arizona.

Early money was betting UTSA ( sharp money) most likely.  It is too early for me to have all the data to play this for any more than 1 unit.  But I am playing UTSA for 1 unit.

Posted Monday, September 01, 2014 07:13 PM

New Season NFL and CFB here

Hi Everyone
Missed getting the plays up here but I was able to put them in the Covers contest and went 10- 5 for the first week.

Going with LV tonight but the line is moving against LV from -3 all the way to -5 at some shops.  Can get -4.5.  Will play at -4.5 but will cut back the play to a standard one unit play

Record for year in CFB is 10-5 (posted in Covers Contest ).  
Lots of new stuff this year that should improve the results in CFB.  Last year, NFL was my best ever so hoping the same approac works for a second straight season
Hope to have new stuff up on Friday PM here at the blog.

Posted Sunday, December 08, 2013 08:48 AM

NFL Plays for Sun 12/8/13

Miami +3.5 vs Pit
Clev +10 vs NE
Ind +7 vs Cincy
SF -2.5 vs Sea
Chi +1 vs Dal

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User: combato
Joined: October 2001
Location: Texas
Occupation: Health Services

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