crazycarlitos's Blog

Posted Wednesday, January 02, 2013 08:16 PM

college bowl

dogs early.. favs late

Posted Saturday, October 20, 2012 11:20 PM

Carlitos Way NFL - ytd 19-10

Nfl ytd 19-10

Tough loss with 49ers on thur. A. Smith back to old self..


For sun, I like:

Buffalo -3 vs tenn 

Cin +1 vs Pit

Dallas -2 @ Carolina

St Louis +5 vs GB





Posted Thursday, October 18, 2012 08:10 PM

Carlitos Way NFL (ytd 19-9) - Thur Night Football

NFL 2012 (ytd 18-9)

Crazy Monday night.. good thing i was on the right side


Tonight, lets keep it simple.

Its Thursday night game - short week for both teams.
Seattle, emotional win last week @ home..
SF, total let down last week @ home..

now the line is -8 (from -7)

with both teams having solid defense, it would be easy to justify taking the Seahawks with so much points..



i think Harbough has the team ready this week.. and unfortunately the seahawks will be routed.

Seattle @ SF -8

I see a one sided game..

final score 26 - 10

go Niners !!


When you can’t see the angles no more, you’re in trouble, baby. You’re in trouble.
~Carlito

Posted Monday, October 15, 2012 07:34 PM

Carlitos Way NFL (ytd 18-9) - MNF

NFL 2012 (ytd 18-9)

went 3-3 on Sunday..

in retrospect, should have known wash and NYJ will win.. duh.

Monday night foorball.. the game where u can expect the unexpected to happen.

the line opened at SD -3.. and its currently sitting on Den -1

for those who are bad with numbers, that's a four point swing.

and if u consider that the spread dropped thru two key figures (-3 and 0), it suggests that some large $ (square or sharp) was dropped on the Broncos. Vegas hates to be middled.. so its not easy for Vegas to change the spread so much.

Also, i like to bet against undisciplined teams such as SD Chargers (or USC Trojans).. or players/coaches who makes wrong decisions time after time such as Norv or Rivers (or Kiffin - btw i keep making money fading USC )

btw, is the SD left tackle position fixed now? otherwise, it will be a long night for Rivers and a field day for Denver's DEs.

tonight, lets go with higher Football IQ and Peyton's first win on MNF as a Bronco

Denver -1 @ San Diego

Final Score: Denver 27 SD 17


When you can’t see the angles no more, you’re in trouble, baby. You’re in trouble.
~Carlito

Posted Sunday, October 14, 2012 06:24 AM

Carlitos Way NFL (ytd 15-6) Sunday Games

NFL. 2012 - 15-6 ytd


Solid win on thur with tenn


This Sunday I like:

Clev +2.5

-the Browns get 1st victory of the season..

Indy +3.5

-Luck continues the winning way..

Mia -5

-Back to reality for the Rams - no offense except for the kicker..

Oak +9.5

-trends favor the Raiders to cover..

Nyg +6.5

-Eli +6.5 points - enuf said..


Sorry, no time for a write up.


Posted Thursday, October 11, 2012 04:54 PM

Carlitos Way NFL (ytd 14-6) - Steelers @ Titans

NFL 2012 ytd 14-6

another win on MNF with the Jets..


The trend continues tonight..

Tennessee has been a big disappointment so far.. and now the Steelers come into town as a 6 point favorite.

I have been preaching 'under' on every Thur night games.. the reason is that teams are not usually in 'sync' on Thur due to short recovery/preparation time.

This goes double for the visiting team due to the traveling involved.. Plus Pittsburgh D is not as good as previous years.

TEN +6 vs Texans

final score: Pit 23 - Ten 20


When you can’t see the angles no more, you’re in trouble, baby. You’re in trouble.
~Carlito

Posted Monday, October 08, 2012 06:45 PM

Carlitos Way NFL (13-6) - Texans @ NYJ

NFL 2012 (13-6)

didn't post plays for the wknd, but hope everyone had a profitable Sunday


For tonight, we have the lowly Jets hosting the (possibly the best team) in Texans...

Seems like a recipe for a boring, one-sided game..

good thing there is 9.5 points to make it interesting.

one thing we learned this weekend is when teams are motivated, they are dangerous.

See Indy over GB..

see New Orleans playing for Sean Payton..

Tonight, Jets are motivated not to be embarrassed, again.

whether that's enough or not, i see at least a back door cover for the Jets.

NYJ + 9.5 vs Texans

final score: Hou 27 - Jets 20


When you can’t see the angles no more, you’re in trouble, baby. You’re in trouble.
~Carlito

Posted Wednesday, October 03, 2012 06:05 PM

Carlitos Way NFL (12-6) Thur Night Football

NFL 12-6


I knew the under on MNF took a dump as soon as Homo threw a pick right before the half..

Onto the Thur Game...

Not a good spot for Ariz.

Overtime win vs Miami in Arizona last weekend.. then traveling to St. Louis on a short week.

the opening line of -2.5 shows which team Vegas wants u to pick..

Now the line is -1.

I am gonna take the Rams ML +105


When you can’t see the angles no more, you’re in trouble, baby. You’re in trouble. ~Carlito


Posted Monday, October 01, 2012 04:46 PM

Carlitos Way NFL (12-5) - MNF

Covers NFL record:  12-5

Hope everyone had a great Sunday !
hit 4 of 5 of posted plays.. and few other big plays !


Tonight we have two good defenses.. two mediocre QBs.. and two terrible offensive lines.

Under 41.5


We have a better coach in Chicago.. but better WRs for Dallas.

The ATS winner is a coin flip, IMO. So i am staying away.

But final score 20-16 Cowboys 


When you can’t see the angles no more, you’re in trouble, baby. You’re in trouble. ~Carlito

Posted Sunday, September 30, 2012 12:38 AM

Carlitos way NFL (8-4) -sun games

Nfl 8-4


Just the plays. Sorry no time. 

San Diego -1.5

Miami +4.5

Cin pk

Wash @ tb over 47.5

Giants +2.5


Posted Friday, September 28, 2012 08:01 PM

Carlitos Way NCAA (3-3) - Sat

2012 NCAA (3-3)


Sat football:

no time for breakdowns..

Kent +2.5 

Min +6.5

Geo -13

TCU -17

Col +20


Ala -17.5 1st half


When you can’t see the angles no more, you’re in trouble, baby. You’re in trouble.
~Carlito

Posted Friday, September 28, 2012 07:55 PM

Carlitos Way NCAA (3-3) - Hawaii @ BYU

2012 NCAA (3-3)


Fri night football:

BYU should cover the -25 IMO

The game should be Under, IMO

but we all know should-be is not always what really happens.

Tonight, there are lots of questions..

will there be a let down after close loss vs Boise St and Utah ?
or will BYU come out fired up with different QB and offensive scheme?
Is Hawaii's offense improving?
yes we all know the D sucks, but can BYU take advantage or will it sputter again ?

i believe BYU will score.. just not sure about Hawaii.

I don't see any advantage on either side.. another coin flip.

and i don't like under unless both are capable of playing some D.

So... i know the juice is high but i will be taking

Hawaii/BYU over 10pts 1st Quarter (-140)  (small play for me)

and looking for live-in play and 2nd half play.


When you can’t see the angles no more, you’re in trouble, baby. You’re in trouble.
~Carlito

Posted Thursday, September 27, 2012 03:06 PM

Carlitos Way NFL (7-4) - Clev at Balt

Covers NFL record:
7-4-1


crazy MNF.

Glad to have the regular refs back.


Divisional games are always deceiving..

on paper, it looks easy.

A rout by the Ravens with its potent offense.. and with the Browns offense sputtering with the rookie QB, how can u wager on them on the road even if u r getting??

but nothing is easy. And this is the NFL,, NO Fuckin' Logic

its a coin flip, DONT bet on a coin flip.

The only thing logical on a short week ? The UNDER

Under 44


final score: 24-13 Baltimore wins


When you can’t see the angles no more, you’re in trouble, baby. You’re in trouble. ~Carlito

Posted Thursday, September 27, 2012 02:50 PM

Carlitos Way NCAA (2-2) - Wash Vs Stanford

2012 NCAA (2-2)


Thur night football:

Some reverse line movement during the week makes u wonder what u r missing..

Most teams hosting a ranked opponent in same div plays above their normal ability..

however, one thing i know is that defense travels well.. And Stanford has a stout defense.

also, Huskies will lose some of the home-field advantage by playing at CenturyLink Field due to lack of familiarity.

Although i hate to lay a TD points on the road..

Stanford -7 

final score prediction: 34-20



When you can’t see the angles no more, you’re in trouble, baby. You’re in trouble.
~Carlito

Posted Friday, September 21, 2012 05:53 PM

Carlitos Way NCAA (2-1) - Fri Pick

2012 NCAA (2-1)


Fri night football:

Although I hate wagering on favorites on Dog-Day-Friday, Baylor has too much offensive talent to drop this game against over-rated ULMonroe. Baylor runs away at the end.

Baylor -8 

final score prediction: 44-28

Baylor win by DD


When you can’t see the angles no more, you’re in trouble, baby. You’re in trouble.
~Carlito

Posted Thursday, September 20, 2012 07:47 PM

adding 1st half play

adding: small play on Carolina -1 (-116) 1st half

count on another slow start from former champions.

Posted Thursday, September 20, 2012 06:34 PM

NCAA - BYU @ Boise St

2012 NCAA (1-1)

USC sucks.. how can u even mention them in the same class as Alabama or LSU ??


Thur night football:

A defensive game.. Both teams similarly matched.. 
take the 6points.
It will be a field goal game at the end.

BYU +6

final score prediction: 24-23

BYU covers either way.


When you can’t see the angles no more, you’re in trouble, baby. You’re in trouble.
~Carlito

Posted Thursday, September 20, 2012 06:15 PM

adding

adding: under 50

the line is currently 49.. still ok for under, IMO.

final score prediction: 27-20 Carolina wins and covers at home.

Posted Thursday, September 20, 2012 04:03 PM

Carlitos Way NFL (4-2-1) - Thur Night

Another Thur night game...


FYI, I'll be betting under (big or small) in every Thursday Night Game (sans Turkey day games) For tonight , small $ on UNDER. I got it at <50 two days ago.


For the Covers record : Panthers -2.5 (-118)


Giants have two many injuries on both sides of the ball.. and like all teams who won the championship the previous year, Gmen are in slow cruise control this early in the season. Giants won't be ready for this Thur game. Go Cam !

When you can’t see the angles no more, you’re in trouble, baby. You’re in trouble. ~Carlito



Posted Monday, September 17, 2012 07:47 PM

Carlitos Way NFL (4-1-1) - MNF

NFL record 4-1-1 so far


onto MNF game..

P Manning as a Bronco visiting the Falcons in Atlanta..


a tough pick at plus/minus 3 considering:

- P Manning record in dome on MNF or primetime..
- M Ryan home record..
- Atlanta's secondary issues..
- Referee issues (home team won 13 of 15 games in 2nd week.. seems like the replacements are easily influenced by home crowd)

also, I like the under 51.5 since both teams know that best way to win is to keep the other offense off the field.. however:

- both teams like to play fast no-huddle offense..
- and this is a Monday Night Football, after all..

Normally, I would stay away from this game like this since neither team has a real advantage on paper.. and i hate to bet under on a MNF

so what is the angle ??

1st of all, Atl home record is bit misleading. Last year, they were 6-2 at home. Lost to GB and NO. Won against Phily, Panthers, Tenn, Min, Jags and Bucs. Can u tell me how many of those teams made the playoff last year ?

2ndly, this is the same Broncos team that won a playoff game last year with TEBOW as a QB !! The D is improved and Peyton is certainly an upgrade from Tim.

Lastly, u bet on the underdog that can win without the spread. Denver is the dog with a bite tonight

Denver +3


for people not convinced - these bets also look good (5dimes):

- 5 pt teaser - Den +7.5 & over 45 - $100 pays $107
- 7.5 ... [More]

Posted Sunday, September 16, 2012 04:41 PM

For Sunday night

Tough push for Gmen.. 3 picks Eli ? C'mon..
Easy win with the Texans.
1-0-1
Adding -4 SF Niners 1st half

Posted Sunday, September 16, 2012 02:25 PM

Adding..

Adding SD Chargers -6.5
All square play for a square week. Lol.

Posted Sunday, September 16, 2012 12:05 AM

Carlitos way NFL week 2 (1-0)

Nfl 1-0

Tough card this week

Three games I like

Ny giants -7
Texans -7
Cowboys -3

Let's get the money


Posted Saturday, September 15, 2012 01:07 AM

Adding..

Wildcats take it at home 

BC @ Northwestern -3

Posted Friday, September 14, 2012 05:52 PM

Carlitos Way - NCAAF - Sat 09/15/12

2012 NCAAF 0-0


haven't officially posted NCAA plays yet this year...

Anyways, Let's win this week !!


- Game of the week

This is the official change of guards in PAC12..

USC wins by DD

  USC -8.5 @ Stanford


only play so far this week.
but still looking at other games...


When you can’t see the angles no more, you’re in trouble, baby. You’re in trouble.
~Carlito

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