cropduster's Blog

Posted Tuesday, July 03, 2012 06:08 PM

Men's quarterfinals futures...

Andy Murray +450 David Ferrer  +2000 Florian Mayer +15000 Jo-Wilfried Tsonga +1000 Mikhail Youzhny +15000 Novak Djokovic -160 Philipp Kohlschreiber +5000 Roger Federer +500     The thing I noticed is that Federer was +450 before the tournament started, got to about +275 after Nadal crashed and burned, but now is back at +500.   I thought it was strange because everyone else, the payout got less and less consistently as the tournament progressed.  ... [More]

Posted Tuesday, February 21, 2012 08:42 PM

Creighton down 21-14

What is going on? These guy lost to Evansville earlier in the year, but today should be payback, right?

Posted Tuesday, October 25, 2011 08:49 AM

Margin of victory and other stuff

Monday night Football game Week 7:

In my pickem group, I have Baltimore -8 as my pick. It moved from Baltimore -7.5 on Monday to -8 on Wednesday. However, the pointspread didn't stop traveling since then and has gone up to -10 in most places according to Vegas Insider. My pick on Baltimore was made earlier in the week and based upon what I thought certain outcomes would be. So, given enough information I might bet the opposite now. I'm just weighing information right now and thus my decision of my pick is in flux.

1.The first thing to consider is the point spread change. It started from a "favorites'" point spread of 7.5 and moved to 10, another "favorites' pointspread". (Just as clarification,numbers on or just over field goals, touchdowns, and combinations of both veer towards the favorite winning the spread the majority of the times where as 2.5,6.5,9.5,13.5 are classical dog spreads.) So, why the point spread movement? Nobody was added to the lineup or subtracted via injury that I know of. So, I think money is the reason. Based on the likely assumption that money is the reason for the change in point spread so far, it means the books probably would like Jacksonville to win. They'd like Jacksonville to win because the money placement is so lopsided or lopsided enough that even their usual 10% cut will lose money if Baltimore wins the spread. So, does it matter if it's sharp's money or public money? I'd say yes, but in this case there will be so much money dum... [More]

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