crowat's Blog

Posted Thursday, April 17, 2014 11:59 AM

UFC on FOX 11: Werdum vs. Browne Predictions

Predictions
Last Event: 7 - 6
2014: 41 - 15 - 0
2013: 192 - 114 - 1
2012: 111 - 56

Plays 2014: 2 - 0  +26.75%
Plays 2013: +127.75%

Had to take a break, personal life blah blah blah

Fabricio Werdum   vs.   Travis Browne   
Main Event | Heavyweight | 265 lbs (120.2 kg)

We should have a clear cut challenger for the Cain's crown tomorrow in what should be a back and forth war. Both men have above average cardio for heavyweights and incredibly both men have only been stopped ONCE via strikes and obviously Werdum has not been submitted while Browne's only blemish is a KO to the cinder block hands of Bigfoot Silva. We should also take note that Wedum's only lose via strikes was that uppercut straight from Hell via Dos Santos. I just don't see Werdum knocking Browne out on Saturday. Werdum sports only one win via strikes in his last 8 fights while Browne has stopped Barnett, Overeem, Gonzaga and Struve in his last 8 with some form of TKO. Werdum's path to victroy includes getting in the clinch and attempting to win the battle along the fence while landing his punishing kness and looking to implement his black belt in Judo to ground Browne...Browne is pretty slick on the ground himself but he really can't afford to spend any extended time on the mat with the 2nd Degree BJJ blackbelt. This could come down to cardio and who can pull away in rounds 4 and 5 a submission for Werdum or a TKO for Browne ea... [More]

Posted Monday, March 10, 2014 12:48 PM

UFC 171: Hendricks vs. Lawler Preview and Predictions

Predictions
Last Event: 4 - 1
2014: 34 - 9 - 0
2013: 192 - 114 - 1
2012: 111 - 56

Plays 2014: 2 - 0  +26.75%
Plays 2013: +127.75%


Johny Hendricks   vs.   Robbie Lawler
Main Event | Title Fight | Welterweight | 170 lbs (77.1 kg)

I am beyond happy for Lawler, not only is he back in the UFC he is fighting for the strap in one of the most stacked divisions. From a pure handi-capping stand point I don't like this match-up one bit for him. Hendricks is too smart and too motivated to get in a straight up brawl with Lawler. I expect Hendricks to use his striking mostly as a means of getting inside on Lawler. Johny will dump Lawler the ground, work some ground and pound, Lawler works back to his feet...rinse and repeat. Lawler is the more technical striker, is aruably harder to hit than hendricks (head movment, footwork) and can ALMOST match Johny's power, it would be straight silly for Hendricks to get in a slug fest with one of the best KO artists 170lbs has ever seen and for this reason I see a dominant decision for Hendricks, Lawler might give Johny a scare in the 4th or 5th, but I really see him only taking one round if any Hendricks.

Prediction - Hendricks via dominant decision.
... [More]

Posted Friday, March 07, 2014 12:01 PM

Bellator 111: Dantas vs. Leone Quick Picks

Predictions
Last Event: 3 - 1
2014: 30 - 8 - 0
2013: 192 - 114 - 1
2012: 111 - 56

Plays 2014: 1 - 0  +9.75%
Plays 2013: +127.75%

Eduardo Dantas   vs.   Anthony Leone 
Main Event | Title Fight | Bantamweight | 135 lbs (61.2 kg)

There is a small possibility that Leone grinds this out, he may be able to secure top position long enough to win 3 of the 5 rounds. Dantas, Andrew Pederneiras and the rest of the Nova Uniao killers want this belt to stay where it is, along with Aldo, and Renan Barao this more than solidifys their camp as the best at the lower weight classes, hell you could argue top 5 in the world. Even if Leone secures top positon I expect the submissions and sweeps to come early and often. Renan Barao actually submitted Leone back in the WEC days so expect some inside information as well here.

Prediction - Dantas via TKO flying knee and punches round 1.

... [More]

Posted Tuesday, February 25, 2014 12:53 PM

UFC Fight Night: Kim vs. Hathaway Predictions

Predictions
Last Event: 10 - 1
2014: 27 - 7 - 0
2013: 192 - 114 - 1
2012: 111 - 56

Plays 2014: 1 - 0  +9.75%

Plays 2013
: +127.75%


John Hathaway   vs.   Dong Hyun Kim
Main Event | Welterweight | 170 lbs (77.1 kg)


Hathaway can't out strike Stun Gun and he definitely can't out grapple/wrestle him, Kim all day every day.

Prediction - Kim via UD.



Posted Thursday, February 20, 2014 04:54 PM

UFC 170: Rousey vs. McMann Quick Picks

Predictions
Last Event: 10 - 2
2014: 17 - 6 - 0
2013: 192 - 114 - 1
2012: 111 - 56

Plays 2014: 0 - 0   

Plays 2013
: +127.75%


Ronda Rousey   vs.   Sara McMann  
Main Event | Title Fight | Bantamweight | 135 lbs (61.2 kg)


This will be the first time two Olympians have ever met inside the octagon. Bronze Medal Judo vs Silver Medal Freestyle Wrestling. Right as the winter Olympics are wrapping up, pretty good story line.

I've only seen a little bit of McMann, I think she wins some rounds early with her top control, in the end you have to side with the champ here. I think she get's it done with her hands in the latter rounds after failing to submit the very strong McMann.

Prediction - Rousey via TKO end of round 4.


Posted Thursday, January 30, 2014 12:24 PM

UFC 169: Barao vs. Faber 2 Predictions

Predictions
2014: 7 - 4 - 0
2013: 192 - 114 - 1
2012: 111 - 56

Plays 2014: 0 - 0   
Plays 2013: +127.75%


Renan Barao   vs.   Urijah Faber   
Main Event | Title Fight | Bantamweight | 135 lbs (61.2 kg)

Urijah is at the peak of his abilities, he has one maybe two more years before he starts to plateu and than inevatbly his skills and reflexes will decline. Now is the time for him, and that reason alone gives me pause in my pick.  Here are a points that have me leaning Renan.

1) Diversity - While Barao will throw everything and the kitchen sink at you standing, Faber is more of a one trick pony, using his overhand right to either drop you or close the distance for his take-downs. This won't work against a fighting with sky high fight IQ such as Barao. It's going to need to be 2, 3, 4 punch combos to truly get Barao backing up and thinking about Fabers Hands, this is easier said than done however as the champ has excellent foot work and the aforementioned fight IQ.

2)

... [More]

Posted Monday, January 20, 2014 04:55 PM

UFC on FOX 10: Henderson vs. Thomson Predictions

Predictions
2014: 0 - 0 - 0
2013: 192 - 114 - 1
2012: 111 - 56
Plays 2013: +127.75%

Benson Henderson   vs.   Josh Thomson
Main Event | Lightweight | 155 lbs (70.3 kg)

These two men are very similiar fighters, both are above average wrestlers with a kickboxing orientated style, strong submissions and excellent cardio.

I'd argue that Thomson has more one punch power and is a little more technical over all with his strikes while Henderson probably has the edge in speed, cardio and in the clinch. The wrestling is almost even, slight edge to Henderson as he averages 2.77 take-downs to 1.81 for Thomson. Henderson hits his take-downs at a 47% clip while Thomson sits around 41%, Henderson defends 65% of the time to Thomson's 54%. I don't think either man get's the finish here, I'm thinking we have a grinder on our hands and it's hard not to give the nod the former champ in a fight like that.

Prediction - Henderson via split decision.

... [More]

Posted Saturday, December 28, 2013 02:51 AM

UFC 168: Weidman vs. Silva 2

Plays went 1 - 0 last event for +50%
Plays YTD
: +127.75%

Would be sweet to finish the year @ +150%

Predictions
Last event: 7 - 4
YTD: 192 - 114 - 1
2012: 111 - 56

Chris Weidman   vs.   Anderson Silva  
Main Event | Title Fight | Middleweight | 185 lbs (83.9 kg)


I wish I had more time.

Silva get's taken down early, either rides out the round on the bottom like he did in the first fight, if he gets back up he gets Wiedman's timing down and it goes to the second. In the second Anderson finishes Wiedman with Strikes, maybe knees.

Prediction - Silva to get his title back and retire Champion. TKO Round 2.


Posted Friday, December 13, 2013 02:27 PM

UFC on FOX 9: Johnson vs. Benavidez 2 Predictions

Plays went 1 - 0 last event for +8.8%
Plays YTD
: +77.75%

Predictions
Last event: 6 - 4 - 1
YTD: 185 - 110 - 1
2012: 111 - 56

I'll try and get my picks up before tomorrow, little to no write-ups, my apologies.

Demetrious Johnson   vs.   Joseph Benavidez  
Main Event | Title Fight | Flyweight | 125 lbs (56.7 kg)


It's crazy that Johnson is only 27, both men are going to be better and I feel like it will play out similar to the first fight, Johnson takes over in the championship rounds with take-downs.

Prediction - Johnson via split decision.


Posted Monday, December 02, 2013 12:41 PM

UFC Fight Night 33: Hunt vs. Bigfoot Predictions

Plays went 1 - 1 for +7.5% last event I played, took Saturday's event off.
Plays YTD: +69.75%

Predictions
Last Event:  8 - 4
YTD: 179 - 106
2012: 111 - 56

Mark Hunt   vs.   Antonio Silva  
Main Event | Heavyweight | 265 lbs (120.2 kg)

Free movement (footwork, head movement etc) - Big Advantage to Hunt here, against the slower, more plodding Silva it will be imperative that hunt use angles and solid footwork to move in and out of boxing range with Silva, who will hold a 8 inch reach advantage. Advantage Hunt.

Wrestling - The last and only time I've seen Silva wrestle was his pummeling of Fedor Emelianenko, while Hunt has shown average take-down defense for a heavy weight, however if Silva is able to clinch Hunt up against the fence I think he will have an easier time finishing than Hunt will have defending. Slight edge to Bigfoot.

Striking - If it was not for Hunt's granite chin this might be even or a slight edge to Bigfoot as he hits as hard as they come for a heavyweight. However Hunt's a bit more technical with his strikes, has good low kicks, decent power himself and the chin to keep him up to negate some of Bigfoot's power. Edge to Hunt.

Grappling - Huge advantage for Bigfoot here, Silva is light years ahead of Hunt in terms of pure BJJ. Advantage Silva.

Cardio - For being as large as he is and for considering the power he puts behind his punches I'd save Bigfoot is q... [More]

Posted Tuesday, November 12, 2013 11:34 PM

UFC 167: St. Pierre vs. Hendricks Predictions

Georges St. Pierre   vs.   Johny Hendricks
Main Event | Title Fight | Welterweight | 170 lbs (77.1 kg)

What a card. I'm going to try and give you guys the best breakdown of this fight as I can, here we go.

I'll start with a basic break down of where I feel each fighter has an advantage.

Free movement (footwork, head movement etc) - Edge to Georges here. Since the Serra fighter he has made an effort to master angles, in and out movement and level changes, and he may be one of the best in the sport at all three.

Wrestling - Even, we all know Hendricks is the more decorated wrestler while GSP is much more accomplished with his MMA wrestling. It's close but I'll call it even, if anyone is getting the take-down I have to think it's GSP unless it's some crazy scramble.

Striking - Edge to GSP with a slight nod and almost even due to Hendricks silly power, the reason I'm giving the edge to GSP here is while I acknowledge Hendrik's power, he is either A) planting his feet in phone booth range and letting his hooks go, OR B) Lunging in with his power hook as we saw countless times against Condit,I feel GSP will be a bit to fast and see the aforementioned angles above, the power shot is there, landing it on GSP is easier said than done.

Grappling - In a pure BJJ match I feel like GSP would win easily on points so I'll give the edge to GSP here, his top game is just too good, again...one of the best in the sport.

Athle... [More]

Posted Friday, November 08, 2013 12:07 AM

UFC Fight Night 32: Belfort vs. Henderson 2

Vitor Belfort   vs.   Dan Henderson 
Main Event | Light Heavyweight | 205 lbs (93.0 kg)


I'll update my record tomorrow at work, I have a little time tonight so I'll toss my picks up, keep in mind there are about 6 or 7 fights that have a fighter I've never seen fight, I'll still predict though.

There is a thread where I put my thoughts on Belfort vs Henderson around the top.

Prediction - Belfort via TKO round 4.



Posted Wednesday, October 23, 2013 12:13 PM

UFC Fight Night 30: Machida vs. Munoz Quick Picks

Predictions
Last Event: 11 - 2
YTD: 159 - 92
2012: 111 - 56

Plays went 0 - 1 for -1.5%
Plays YTD
: +67.75%

I'll predict the whole card but there are a few UK fighters on here i've never seen fight so keep that in mind.


Lyoto Machida   vs.   Mark Munoz
Main Event | Middleweight | 185 lbs (83.9 kg)


Munoz is a little bit to slow and predictable for Machida, I am not too worried about the cut, look for a Machida counter to drop Munoz in the 3rd round and then finish with strikes as Munoz desperately attempts a single leg take-down.

Prediction - Machida via TKO end of round 3.


Posted Wednesday, October 16, 2013 12:10 PM

UFC 166: Velasquez vs. Dos Santos 3 Quick Picks

Plays went 2 - 2 last for +3.75%

Plays YTD
: +68.75%

Predictions
YTD: 148 - 90
2012: 111 - 56

Apologies for my lack of write ups, just going to get my picks down, super short on time this week.

Cain Velasquez   vs.   Junior Dos Santos  

Main Event | Title Fight | Heavyweight | 265 lbs (120.2 kg)

I could probably copy and paste my write up from the last time they fought if I could find it, I think it goes down similiar, except I think this time JDS lands a bit more which in turn while make Cain shoot and work his ground and pound.

Prediction - Cain via UD.


Posted Monday, September 30, 2013 06:22 PM

UFC Fight Night 29: Maia vs. Shields Predictions / Plays / Discussion

Predictions
Last Event: 9 - 4
YTD: 145 - 83
2012: 111 - 56

Plays YTD
 +65%

Going to post my initial leans.

Maia > Shields
Silva > Stun Gun
T.Silva > Hamill
Maldonado > Beltran
Pierce > Palhares
Dillashaw > Assuncao
Dias > Damm
Alcantara > Araujo
Mitchell > Cabral
Santos > Cariaso
Patrick > Whiteley





Posted Friday, September 27, 2013 02:06 PM

Bellator 101 Dartboard/Plays

Hey guys, good luck tonight!

Plays
YTD:  +66.3%

3 Team Parlay 1.2% to win 1%
(5510) Marcin Held -260
(5506) Alexander "Tiger" Sarnavskiy -500
(5508) Joe Warren -600
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Singles

Rich "No Love" Clementi +175  1% to win 1.75%

Martin ".50 Cal" Stapleton +155 1% to win 1.55%
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Hail Mary Parlay .25%ish to win 40%
Marcin Held -260
Rich "No Love" Clementi +175
Martin ".50 Cal" Stapleton +155
Joe Warren -600
Alexander "Tiger" Sarnavskiy -500
John "The Natural" Alessio +230 ... [More]

Posted Tuesday, September 17, 2013 12:00 PM

UFC 165: Jones vs. Gustafsson Prediction Party

Predictions
Last Event: 6 - 5
YTD: 136 - 79
2012: 111 - 56


Jon Jones   vs.   Alexander Gustafsson  
Main Event | Title Fight | Light Heavyweight | 205 lbs (93.0 kg)

Hate him or love him we are currently getting a chance to watch one of the greatest fighters/athleres of our generation in Jon Jones. Jones is going for his 7th title defense of the light heavy weight crown, this would be a new record, surpassing Tito Ortiz? The crazy part is the kid is only 26 and seems to be getting better each fight, the title defenses have come against top notch fighters, fighters that Jones has made look pedestrian at best when their in the cage with him. He has dominated the likes of Chael Sonnen, Rashad Evans, Machida, Shogun, Bader. The only time I can remember Jones being in true trouble was the desperation arm bar thrown up by Vitor that broke Jones arm, three things in that sequence impressed me, 1st Vitor's slick transition to the arm bar, 2nd Jones ability to defend and eventually not tap and get out of the arm bar that was locked in and being wrenched by a legitimate long time black belt, 3rd Jones ability to put the pain aside and get business done, I still don't really like the Kid but he has all of my respect.

I've focused on Jones here mainly because I don't think Gustafsson is going to win this fight, actually I don't see any avenue for him to win short of going balls out and catching Jon on the feet. That bei... [More]

Posted Tuesday, September 03, 2013 12:54 PM

UFC Fight Night 28: Teixeira vs. Bader Predictions


Predictions

Last Event: 8 - 4
YTD: 130 - 74
2012: 111 - 56


Just getting my picks up before the card tomorrow, no write ups.


Glover Teixeira   vs.   Ryan Bader 
Main Event | Light Heavyweight | 205 lbs (93.0 kg)


Bader's right hand and wrestling can give any 205er a tough fight, I think Teixeira is ready for both, wins convincingly and moves up the ladder, closer to the big money (for Glover and the UFC) Title Shot against Jon Jones.

Prediction - Teixeira via TKO round 4.


Posted Thursday, August 29, 2013 01:59 PM

UFC 164: Henderson vs. Pettis 2 Predictions

Predictions
Last Event: 6 - 4
YTD: 122 - 70
2012: 111 - 56

Plays
YTD: +63.3%


Benson Henderson   vs.   Anthony Pettis  
Main Event | Title Fight | Lightweight | 155 lbs (70.3 kg)

Love this fight. Pettis is going to have his hands full keeping himself upright. Henderson will be hunting for the clinch all night. There will be key moments when Henderson moves to close the distance that will dictate this fight, if Pettis can use his top notch foot work and angles he may be able to circle away before he is pushed up against the fence or sprawl and under-hook himself out of the double leg take-down attempt.

The striking game should be interesting, Pettis has a full repertoire of kicks, punches, spinning attacks, jumping knees while Henderson takes a more measured approach, relying more on his Jab, a one two and some decent low kicks.

It should be similar to the first fight, both men are incredibly durable so the finish is unlikely, more likely it will be a back and forth war of attrition. It's tough to not side with the wrestler in this situation as Judges absolutely love the take-down. The question will be if Henderson can get the take-down to begin with and what will he be able to do with it as Pettis has a very under-rated ground game as we mostly see him knock fools out. Pettis has been working on his wrestling diligently under the tutelage of teammate MMA/Wrestling standout Ben Askre... [More]

Posted Thursday, August 22, 2013 12:54 PM

UFC Fight Night 27: Condit vs. Kampmann 2 Predictions and Plays

Not the best event. Even though I am up money I am going to re-think my strategy. Less chalk parlays and more looking for Value, kicking myself to missing it each card, then again picking dogs is easier said then done. Gonna chill on the hail marys as well, at the very least keep it to 1 and go back to .50% or .25% per hail mary.

Predictions

Last Event: 8 - 5
YTD: 116 - 66
2012: 111 - 56


Plays
Last event: -2%
YTD: +63.3%




Posted Wednesday, August 07, 2013 02:43 PM

UFC Fight Night 26: Shogun vs. Sonnen Predictions and Plays

Predictions
Last Event: 4 - 3
YTD: 108 - 61
2012: 111 - 56


Plays
YTD: +65.3%

Getting this up early as I am really excitied for this card, a lot of fights i'm looking forward to. Here are my leans for said fights, I'll be back with Write-ups later for most of the fights I think. Posted below are just first thought leans, I may change my mind in my write ups later on.


Alistair Overeem  <  Travis Browne 
Urijah Faber   >   Yuri Alcantara  
Matt Brown   <  Mike Pyle  
Joe Lauzon   >   Michael Johnson  
Michael McDonald    >  Brad Pickett   
Mike Brown    <   Steven Siler  


 


 
 
 
 
... [More]

Posted Thursday, August 01, 2013 06:40 PM

UFC 163: Aldo vs. Korean Zombie Predictions and maybe plays

Predictions
Last Event: 9 - 3
YTD: 104 - 58
2012: 111 - 56


Plays
Last Event: 4 - 0 and hit my 9 team hail mary parlay. ( note - I don't hit them very often)
YTD: +65.3%

I'm on Vacation so I am not able to do my usual research, no write ups either, I'll just be tossing up some thoughts and I might leave some fights out due to just not knowing enough about the fighters.



Jose Aldo   vs.   Chan Sung Jung  
Main Event | Title Fight | Featherweight | 145 lbs (65.8 kg)


I'm not sure Jung will have much for Aldo. If Aldo comes in in-shape and motivated he is almost unbeatable at 145.

Prediction - Also via TKO round 4.



Posted Monday, July 22, 2013 02:38 PM

UFC on FOX 8: Johnson vs. Moraga Predictions and Plays

Predictions:
Last Event: 8 - 3
YTD: 95 - 55
2012: 111 - 56

Plays:
YTD: +21.5% on posted plays

Demetrious Johnson   vs.   John Moraga  
Main Event | Title Fight | Flyweight | 125 lbs (56.7 kg)

I am really high on Moraga, he has technical Division 1 level wrestling, good submission knowledge and legit power in his hands for a Flyweight.  Johnson will be 3 inches shorter but only gives up about one inch in reach to Moraga. Dodson was able to drop Johnson a few times in Mighty Mouse’s last fight, the difference here is while Moraga has the same power as Dodson (arguably more) but he is not as technicaly sound with his hands as Dodson and is quite a bit slower, the combination of Dodson’s hand speed and power coupled with his feisty scrambling and wrestling was ALMOST Johnson’s kryptonite, in the end Johnson fought through getting tagged multiple times and did what champions do – wins the fight.  The key here, as is with most of Mighty Mouse’s fights, is speed, Moraga is noticeably slower with his striking and shots then say Dodson or Johnson so he is going to need to rely on sound foot work to cut off the cage, tie Johnson up and work for a take-down from there. I don’t see Moraga submitting Johnson and 5 rounds is too long for Moraga to pull of the wrestle fuk win so that leaves his hands and his power as his best chance, there might be a few scary moments where Johnson... [More]

Posted Wednesday, July 03, 2013 02:36 PM

UFC 162: Silva vs. Weidman Predictions

Predictions:
Last Event: 5 - 6
YTD: 87 - 52
2012: 111 - 56

Plays:
Last Event: +6.5% on posted plays
YTD: +21.5% on posted plays

Almost no time for write-ups, almost totally forgot to get my picks up.

Anderson Silva   vs.   Chris Weidman  
Main Event | Title Fight | Middleweight | 185 lbs (83.9 kg)


Silva will get taken down a few times but in the end he wins via TKO in round 4.


Posted Tuesday, June 11, 2013 01:35 PM

UFC 161: Evans vs. Henderson Predictions and Plays

Predictions:
Last Event: 10 - 2
YTD: 82 - 46
2012: 111 - 56

Plays:
Last Event: +6.5% on posted plays
YTD: +21.5% on posted plays

Dan Henderson   vs.   Rashad Evans  
Main Event | Light Heavyweight | 205 lbs (93.0 kg)

This is a tough fight to cap, both men are coming off Loses, Rashahd's lose was much more uglier than Henderson's however. Rashad has two loses in a row and will be looking to secure the win here or he drops to 3 in a row and that is never a good thing in the UFC.

The striking is somewhat even with a slight edge in technical proficiency to Rashad and knockout power goes to Henderson obviously. While Henderson loves to hunt for the over hand right, and uses it more often that most of his other strikes, contrary to popular belief it's not his only strike. He throws decent combinations, has a decent jab and throws viscous uppercuts. Rashad throws more kicks so he is over-all a little more diverse, he also probably holds an edge in cardio over Henderson but this is mostly due to Henderson age. Henderson has not (as far as I can remember) had cardio issues in the past and about a year ago went 5 VERY hard rounds against Shogun, so I think his "cardio problems" are a bit over-stated, but then again the guy is 42.

The wrestling department is also tough to cap. I've said it before, Rashad is one of the best in the UFC at setting up his middle of the cage take-downs with his strikes, ... [More]

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