UFC 161: Evans vs. Henderson Predictions and Plays

Predictions:
Last Event: 10 - 2
YTD: 82 - 46
2012: 111 - 56

Plays:
Last Event: +6.5% on posted plays
YTD: +21.5% on posted plays

Dan Henderson   vs.   Rashad Evans  
Main Event | Light Heavyweight | 205 lbs (93.0 kg)

This is a tough fight to cap, both men are coming off Loses, Rashahd's lose was much more uglier than Henderson's however. Rashad has two loses in a row and will be looking to secure the win here or he drops to 3 in a row and that is never a good thing in the UFC.

The striking is somewhat even with a slight edge in technical proficiency to Rashad and knockout power goes to Henderson obviously. While Henderson loves to hunt for the over hand right, and uses it more often that most of his other strikes, contrary to popular belief it's not his only strike. He throws decent combinations, has a decent jab and throws viscous uppercuts. Rashad throws more kicks so he is over-all a little more diverse, he also probably holds an edge in cardio over Henderson but this is mostly due to Henderson age. Henderson has not (as far as I can remember) had cardio issues in the past and about a year ago went 5 VERY hard rounds against Shogun, so I think his "cardio problems" are a bit over-stated, but then again the guy is 42.

The wrestl... [More]

UFC on FUEL TV 10: Nogueira vs. Werdum 2

Last event: 8 - 4
YTD: 72 - 44
2012: 111 - 56

Last Event: 3TP Win  +9%

YTD: +15% on posted plays

Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira   vs.   Fabricio Werdum  
Main Event | Heavyweight | 265 lbs (120.2 kg)

The ground games cancel each other out with a slight edge to Werdum if it hits the mat. Standing big nog definitely has the advantage in knockout power and he may also be a bit more technical with his hands but I think that is where the advantages end for big Nog. Even though Nogueira is only two years older than Werdum, he has many more miles on his aging body and I think that will be the difference. Werdum needs to stay away from the over hand and straight right from Nogueira, if and when he does so he picks his spots to close the distance, tie big nog up against the fence, lean on him and start landing those knees.

Prediction - Werdum via TKO knees and punches round 3.

UFC 160: Velasquez vs. Silva 2 Predictions

Last event: 9 - 4
YTD: 64 - 40
2012: 111 - 56

+6% on posted plays (started recording last card)


Cain Velasquez   vs.   Antonio Silva  
Main Event | Title Fight | Heavyweight | 265 lbs (120.2 kg)

I won't take much time on this as I don't think Silva can win short of landing a hard shot in an exchange.

Prediction - Cain via TKO 1st round. 

UFC on FX 8: Belfort vs. Rockhold Quick Picks

Last event : 7 - 4
YTD: 55 - 36
2012: 111 - 56

Vitor Belfort   vs.   Luke Rockhold  
Main Event | Middleweight | 185 lbs (83.9 kg)

I've convinced myself that Rockhold will overcome his jitters with a rocky 1st and possibly part of the 2nd. Vitor will gas towards the end of the 3rd while Rockhold starts to cruise using kicks to keep Belforts power away. Vitor could just blitz him and end it early of course but I think that is less likely than Rockhold winning on points.I think Rockhold walks away with the decision, possibly split.

Prediction - Rockhold via split decision.

UFC 159: Jones vs. Sonnen Quick Picks

Last event : 9 - 2
YTD: 48 - 32
2012: 111 - 56

Work has been crazy this week, going to try and get all my picks up quickly today.

Jon Jones   vs.   Chael Sonnen   Confirmed
Main Event | Title Fight | Light Heavyweight | 205 lbs (93.0 kg)

Could Chael win by repeatedly grounding Jones and riding it out on top? Possibly, he may even be able to take a round from Jones if he is able to do so, but in the end Jones wins this fight, and probably gets the finish.

Prediction - Jon Jones via submission in the second, some sort of choke.

UFC on FOX 7: Henderson vs. Melendez Quick Picks

Last event: 5 - 5
YTD: 39 - 30
2012: 111 - 56

Benson Henderson   vs.   Gilbert Melendez  
Main Event | Title Fight | Lightweight | 155 lbs (70.3 kg)

I like Ben Henderson in this match up. Gilbert is tough and has heart for days but I think Ben is quite a bit better in a lot of the key areas. Gilbert probably has more power standing and is maybe a bit more technical with his hands but I'd give the edge in Wrestling, kick-boxing, Cardio, Chin, foot work / head movement and submissions to Henderson. Neither man has been finished by strikes and I really don't see either man being submitted unless Gilbert makes a mistake and gets caught in a guillotine or something so the best bet is probably that this baby goes the full 5 rounds, I'm guessing that prop will be a bit juiced though. I scored the the last Thomson - Melendez fight as a UD for Thomson (Gilbert won via split) and I'd take Henderson over Thomson all day every day. Just a little MMA math for all ya'llz.

Prediction - Ben Henderson via UD.

... [More]

UFC on FUEL TV 9: Gustafsson vs. Mousasi Predictions

Last event: 9 - 3
YTD: 34-25
2012: 111 - 56

Alexander Gustafsson   vs.   Gegard Mousasi  
Main Event | Light Heavyweight | 205 lbs (93.0 kg)

Wish I had more time to do full write-ups, these two deserve it. More to the point, short of a Gegard KO or a newfound love for offensive wrestling I don't see Mousasi winning this fight. Gustafsson has all the tools to be a top contender in the division. If this was a straight kick boxing match I'd give the edge to Gegard but Gustafson's take-downs and top control game will keep Mousasi honest and unable to connect with the power he would like.

Prediction - Gustafsson via hard fought decision.

UFC 158: St. Pierre vs. Diaz

Last event: 3- 4
YTD: 25-22

2012: 111 - 56

Georges St. Pierre   vs.   Nick Diaz  
Main Event | Title Fight | Welterweight | 170 lbs (77.1 kg)

You think GSP loses @ home to Nick Diaz? Think again. Diaz will give GSP a tougher fight that any of his previous 5 or so opponents but in the end GSP takes at least 3 of the 5 rounds from Diaz.

Prediction - GSP via UD.

UFC on FUEL TV 8: Silva vs. Stann Quick Picks

Last event: 8 - 4
YTD: 22- 18

2012: 111 - 56
 
Wanderlei Silva   vs.   Brian Stann
Main Event | Light Heavyweight | 93 kg (205.0 lbs)

One of my favorite fighters ever, but it might be time to hang em up Wanderlei.

Prediction - Stann by KO in the 1st.

UFC 157: Rousey vs. Carmouche Predictions

Last event: 5 - 1
YTD: 14 - 14

2012: 111 - 56

Ronda Rousey   vs.   Liz Carmouche  
Main Event | Title Fight | Bantamweight | 135 lbs (61.2 kg)

Short of a crazy strike landing I don't see any way for Carmouche to win this. She is quite tough and might put up a little bit of resistance in the clinch at first but eventually Rousey will land a throw or a trip and then it's game over.

Prediction - Going out on a limb with this one (HA) Rousey via arm-bar in the 1st.

UFC on FUEL TV 7: Barao vs. McDonald Qick Picks

Last event: 4 - 7

YTD: 9 - 13

Renan Barao   vs.   Michael McDonald  
Main Event | Title Fight | Bantamweight | 135 lbs (61.2 kg)

I'm high on both of these guys. Standing they are almost equals, maybe give the power edge to Barao, he might also have the better BJJ but McDonald should enjoy a wrestling advantage. Both men are extremely fast and with Barao utilizing Kicks more than McDonald but I'd say Michael's straight punches are more accurate than Barao's lopping hooks. I've gone back and forth on this fight and probably wont be betting on it unless I toss something on it going the distance.

Prediction - McDonald is a bit more accurate on the feet while staying away from the power of Barao, McDonald will also have the option of at least attempting to take Barao down, although the Brazilian has shown excellent take-down defense thus far. McDonald by split decision.

UFC 156: Aldo vs. Edgar Quick Picks

YTD: 5 - 6

Down units from the last event, bit better capping and I would have at least landed even on the predictions. Here we go again.

Jose Aldo   vs.   Frankie Edgar   Confirmed
Main Event | Title Fight | Featherweight | 145 lbs (65.8 kg)

If Edgar used his underrated wrestling offensivley...like...ever...I would be giving him more of a chance in this fight. You'd think the game-plan against someone link Aldo would be to get him down and wear him out early as his Cardio is not always on point. Even if that is the game-plan for Edgar it's not like it's easy to take Jose Aldo down, technique alone won't suffice, one needs George St.piere level of timing + technique to ground Aldo and I don't think Edgar will show that on Saturday. Part of me wishes we would see it as it could be the start of something special for him at 145.

Prediction - Aldo by TKO in round 3.

UFC on FOX 6: Johnson vs. Dodson Quick Picks

2012 Record: 111 - 56

2013: 0 - 0

Didn't get all my picks up in time for the last event, I'm going to take a mulligan on that one and start recording for the year this event.

Apologies for the lack of write ups. Tail or Fade away!


Demetrious Johnson   vs.   John Dodson   
Main Event | Title Fight | Flyweight | 125 lbs (56.7 kg)

Like Sawman said in his thread, the best bet here might be that it goes to a decision. They are basically mirror images in height and reach and have very similar overall games. I give the edge in wrestling to Johnson while I'd say Dodson is a tad quicker than mighty mouse and might have a bit more punching power due to the way he throws his strikes and his footwork. Johnson's footwork and head movement / striking defense are all on another level compared to any 125er in the world let alone Dodson and Johnson's past level of competition blows Dodson's out of the water. At a glance, win, lose or draw Johnson has locked horns with: Josheph Benavidez, Ian McCall X2, Dominick Cruz, Miguel Torres, Kid Yamamoto, Damacio Page, Nick Pace, Brad Pickett. Compare that to Dodson: Yasuhiro Urushitani, Mike Eason, Tj Dillashaw, Tim Elliot, Jussier da Silva.
This is Mighty Mouse's fight to lose.

Prediction - M... [More]

UFC on FX 7: Belfort vs. Bisping Quick Picks

Francisco Trinaldo   vs.   CJ Keith  
Preliminary Card | Lightweight | 155 lbs (70.3 kg)

I haven't seen enough of Keith in the UFC to bet on this fight. With what I know I'd take Trinaldo via KO in the second.

UFC 155: Dos Santos vs. Velasquez 2 Predictions

Last weeks events :

UFC on FX: 4 - 1

Ultimate Fighter Finale: 6 - 1

YTD: 105 - 50

UFC on FX 6: Sotiropoulos vs. Pearson Predictions

Last Event: 8 - 2
YTD: 95 - 48

Ross Pearson   vs.   George Sotiropoulos  
Main Event | Lightweight | 155 lbs (70.3 kg)

 Pearson (5'8) 13 - 6 - 0 

Pearson won the UK vs US season of TUF as a lightweight.  After losing a split decision to Edson Barboza (I scored the fight for Pearson, 10 – 9, 10 – 10, and 10 – 9 Pearson) Pearson would make the drop down to featherweight where he would fend off the take-downs of Junior Assuncao to take a well-earned UD from the Brazilian.  Pearson would go on to lose his next fight at featherweight to the always tough Cub Swanson. Pearson was holding his own going into the second, he even scored 2 – 3 take-downs on the much smaller Swanson, however, he was caught with a perfect left hook in the second and finished by Cub with strikes on the mat. Pearson looks to move back up to lightweight to take on Sotiropoulos.

What we know about Pearson
- Excellent Cardio
- Black belt in Taekwondo
- Brown belt in Judo
- Above average striking (good combinations, footwork and head movement)
- Average offensive wrestling
- Excellent balance and take-down defense

 

Sotiropoulos (5'10) 14 - 4 - 0 

 A black belt in BJJ since 2004... [More]

UFC on FOX 5: Henderson vs. Diaz Predictions

Last event: 5 - 7
Not the best event, hopefully bounce back on this amazing card.

YTD: 87 - 46


Mike Easton (5’5)

Mike Easton is a 28 year old Mixed Martial Artist who trains out of Alliance MMA / Team Loyd Irvin. Easton holds a black belt in BJJ (promoted in 2007) as well as a black belt in Tae Kwon Do. Easton is 13 – 1 overall with 4 wins by knockout, 2 by submission and 7 be decision. In his first UFC fight he TKO’d Byron Bloodworth with knees and punches, in his second fight he defeated the game Jared Papazian by decision. Outside the UFC Easton has notable wins over John Dodson (split) and Josh Ferguson (guillotine choke) and a controversial split decision over Chase Beebe which was named Sherdog’s robbery of the year. Basically Beebe controlled Easton on the ground for 4 of the 5 rounds, a lot of the time spent in back mount and in dominant positions, the judges gave it to Easton after 5 rounds, terrible, terrible judging. In his last UFC fight Easton won a lackluster decision over Ivan Menvijar.

 

Prediction – I might give the edge to Raphael if he was not coming in on short notice.  I think Easton will be a little sharper overall while landing more standing and shrugging off a few take-downs from Assuncao, even coming in on short notice I think this will be super close and go to the Judges so better beware, never know what the ju... [More]

UFC on FX 5: Browne vs. Silva Predictions

Aaron Simpson   vs.   Mike Pierce  
Preliminary Card | Welterweight | 170 lbs (77.1 kg)

Mike Pierce

Pierce is a wrestle-boxer fighting out of Portland Oregon, he sports an overall record of 14 – 5 – 0 and he wrestled at the division 1 level for Portland state university. Pierce is on the shorter side for welterweight standing only 5’8 but he is built like a MACK truck. Despite his usual height disadvantage Pierce possess a decent reach at 71”, he mixes up his strikes well, throws decent combos and has above average head movement. Pierce has become quite adept at slipping punches in close while finding the target with his own strikes. Pierce’s legit background in wrestling, compact frame and low center of gravity makes him almost impossible to take down, he was taken down twice by Josh Kosheck very briefly (pierce pop’d right back up) but if I remember correctly defended all three or four of NCAA Division 1 wrestler Johnny Hedricks’ takedowns and then getting a slam take-down of his own towards the end of the third round on Johnny.  While Pierce’s record is nothing to write home about his defeats deserve a second look. He lost to Mark Munoz in his fourth pro fight and Strikeforce vet Nathan Coy in his 7th (both by decision), Pierce’s 3rd p... [More]

Strikeforce: Rousey vs. Kaufman Quick Picks

7 - 3 last UFC
41 - 18 YTD

All typed out so just some quick picks for the event.
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Ronda Rousey   vs.   Sarah Kaufman  
Main Event | Title Fight | Bantamweight | 135 lbs (61.2 kg)

I like Ronda in this fight, Kaufman is a gamer and has feisty take-down defense but Ronda will eventually get the clinch and that will be the beginning of the end, hoping for another arm bar so let’s say Ronda via arm bar in the 1st round.

Ronaldo Souza   vs.   Derek Brunson  
Main Card | Middleweight | 185 lbs (83.9 kg)

Either a very long of very short night for Brunson. I can see Souza wanting to make a statement by submitting the Gracie Jiu-Jitsu fiighter. Let’s take Souza by 3rd round submission. 

Tarec Saffiedine   vs.   Roger Bowling  
Main Card | Welterweight | 170 lbs (77.1 kg)

This should be an interesting stand up... [More]

UFC 150: Henderson vs. Edgar 2 Predictions

Nik Lentz   vs.   Eiji Mitsuoka  
Preliminary Card | Featherweight | 145 lbs (65.8 kg)

Here we go again, if this card is half as good as this past Saturday’s we’re in for a treat.  Eiji Mitsuoka wrestled in high school and in college in Japan. Mitsuoka’s take-downs, guard passing and submissions are things of beauty, out of his 18 wins 11 are submissions with 3 knockouts and 4 decisions.  He started out in MMA as pure wrestled but over the years in the gym (now 36) Mitsuoka has developed a serviceable pair of hands with decent knockout power, that being said he knows his striking is primarily a means to set up his lighting fast shots to get the fight to the ground.

Lentz fights out of ATT, wrestled at the NCAA Division 1 level at the University of Minnesota and is currently a purple belt in Jiu-Jitsu. He has a balanced win ratio with 9 submissions, 6 knockouts and 6 decision wins. Like Mitsuoka, Lentz prefers to get the fight to the ground. I would give the edge in wrestling to Lentz (slight), technique and power on the feet to Mitsuoka (slight) and the submission advantage to Mitsuoka (heavy). Mitsuoka may struggle with the D1 wrestling of Lentz but is more than capable of plating the ATT product on his backside, the same can be said for Lentz ho... [More]

UFC 148 Predictions with write-ups

Rafaello Oliveira vs Yoislandy Izquierdo
Preliminary Card | Lightweight | 155 lbs (70.3 kg)

Oliveira (5’8)

Tractor trains out of New Jersey’s AMA fight club alongside Charlie Brenneman and the Miller brothers. He has an overall record of 14 – 5. He is a high level BJJ player as well as an instructor. Oliveira made his debut in the UFC with a record of 9 – 1. He lost his first fight via decision to Nick Lentz and then split his next two with a win over Gunderson and a loss to Andre Winner. He won 4 in a row outside the UFC and was welcomed back by a Glesion Tibau uppercut and rear naked choke.  Oliveira has decent power in his hands and average wrestling, his fight IQ and gas tank are average but his BJJ is top notch. Tractor seems to falter whenever he is faced with a step up in competition. All of his 14 wins are against lower caliber fighters. He has one win the in the UFC – against John Gunderson.

 

Yoislandy Izquierdo (5’11)

Izquierdo trains under vicious kick boxer Eric “El Tigre” Castano, who’s overseen the likes of Thiago Alves and Jorge Masvidal, at the Young Tigers Foundation in Miami. He is 6 - 1 overall. Because of his background in Karate Izquierdo fights with a different stance and rhythm than most MMA fighters. Izquierdo has a wide karate style stance, keeps his hands quite low and strikes as a south paw. His best weapons on the feet are a stinging left strai... [More]