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ANBODY WANT THE DEF EFEECIENCY NUMBERS FOR MON.. HERE THEY ARE

By dangerfields | View all Posts
Posted Monday, March 24, 2008 11:23 AM   15 comments
VTECH..87     UAB  95
OHIO ST  90.1   CAL  100.2
ILL ST  92   DAYTON  97.6
NEB  87.3   MISS  96.9
VIRGINIA  98.4  ODU  99.7
HOUSTON  99.7   VALPO  100.7
BRADLEY  99,9     OHIO  99.8
TULSA  93.1    UTAH  96.2
 
remember  the LOWER  number is the better number.. the game that sticks out the most is  neb/miss   miss if the favorite   yet neb has better  def  eff by quite a bit..  this is the first time  ive seen this so far  (only a few days so far so not a huge sampling)..  but its been pretty acurate..  im also thinking the  teams  with  two very high  numbers for defense  playing each other  should result in  high scoring game..  thuss the over.. valpo/houston  as well as bradly/  ohio fit that bill
 
GOOD LUCK WHATEVR YOU USE
P.S.   CREDIT TO THE GUY WHO  ORIGINATED THIS    I THINK IT WAS  ASHADYGUY  (something like that).. im not taking crdit for it   just posting the numbers
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15 comments
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southcacilak says:
03/24/08 12:29PM
Thanks for kicking my ass. BOL the rest of the tourney
Ap1Bfreetorun says:
03/24/08 12:30PM
dangerfields, thanks for posting this.  Don't yet know if I am betting the NIT today.  I may just take Ohio State, Miss., ODU and Ohio for the first half - testing.
tomkarw says:
03/24/08 03:51PM
HI DANGER,  DO YOU KNOW IF EFF. NUMBERS INCLUDES ALL GAMES? IS THERE A HOME AND AWAY EFF. NUMBER?  THANKS
MidniteWriter says:
03/24/08 05:42PM
Thaks Danger!
MidniteWriter says:
03/24/08 06:05PM
Tomkarw, Danger forgot to mention that there must be

more than a 3 point difference between the teams

before they can be considered a play. So, you

would eliminate the Virginia, Houston and Bradley

games from consideration. The largest difference

isn't as significant. Thus, Ohio St. would NOT be

a better play than the others with more than 3 pt

difference. Cal was a good road dog ATS all season.

dashadyone23 says:
03/24/08 06:59PM
Guys, I used my system today to cap these games. I also took a look back at the losses within my system from the tourney. I was able to tweak it a little and throw out a few of the losers based on a big disparity in either FT% of 3PT%. Remember, bad FT% takes away precious pts towards a cover wihle good 3PT% adds precious pts towards a cover. Some of the teams that lost within my system, Memphis, Tennessee, and Clemson, were thrown out after comparing these numbers. I'm not sure of the exact % difference to throw a game out yet, but it looks to be around 6 on free throws (FT diff between American/UT was 73.9-65.8; Villanova/Clemson was 71.9-62.3; Miss St-Memphis was 64.5-59.7; Miami-Texas was 74.3-68.5) I think the favored team losing these crucial points by doinking FTs hurts towards hitting a cover. After all of this, there are 2 games I really like tonight. The first is Illinois St -6.5 against Dayton and the one you guys have already discussed, Nebraska +6 against Ole Miss. The only thing that has yet to be answered is: will this work outside of a neutral court? I think Nebraska/Ole Miss will be a big test. Remember, this is just a work in process that only seems to be working after a few days of a lot of basketball games. More to come...
dashadyone23 says:
03/24/08 07:02PM
Oh I forgot, I laid off of Cal/Ohio St bc of the FT% difference. Cal is 77.7% to Ohio St's 69%. UAB/VT would also initially fall into the system, but UAB shoots 3s at 38% compared to VTs 32.4%. You can try to play them, but I am laying off.
dashadyone23 says:
03/24/08 08:31PM


No one told me that Illinois St. can't shoot! They are missing the most wide open shots I have ever seen.
dashadyone23 says:
03/24/08 10:19PM
Yeah, there's nothing you can do about capping a game when one team shoots 34%, 30% from the free throw line (a huge point as I just made!), and 12% from 3...that's just not supposed to happen. Anyway, I ended up playing VT as well after looking at that one again. It fit my system too well to be nit-picky about a few % pts at the 3 pt line.
dashadyone23 says:
03/24/08 11:29PM
That idiot Kenny Williams for Ole Miss cost Nebraska the cover, that was supposed to be a 2 pt win in regulation. Oh well, if you played all of the games that worked out based on the def eff, it went 2-2. Definitely should have been 3-1 but someone down in Mississippi can't catch a ball. Also, that Jaric or whoever for Nebraska sucks ass. I about shit myself when those announcers mentioned him getting a chance in the league.
dangerfields says:
03/24/08 11:49PM
tell me about the end of the neb reg time.. i didnt turn it on until ot  and got sick  when they got bloen out..  cost me 3 huge parlays!!!!!!!!,,  but the       system had it right   70-70  in reg..  it seems like ot  hurts more times than it help..(at least thats the ones i remember anyway..... also  keep an eye on the  over  und..  when 2 teams have  very high  ratings  face each other  lokks like  it means  alot of pts..  worked well in  brad  and  houston  games...i wish i knew about this a few weeks ago,, by the time you get all the kinks out.. CBB will be over
dashadyone23 says:
03/25/08 12:28AM


Ole Miss ran a beautiful play to win in regulation, a wide open oop to Kenny Williams under the basket wide open. He bobbled the ball on the way up and tried to recover, throwing the ball up like a retard in the process. There was no one within 5 ft of him.
dangerfields says:
03/25/08 12:33AM
that sounds about right for me..  i hate when u cap the game right and still come out  losing....the breaks are supposed to even out at some point  but  it sure seems like it doesnt..
XtremeSelectee says:
03/25/08 12:48AM

That is just because the beats feel THAT much Worse!!!!

MidniteWriter says:
03/25/08 02:56AM
If you throw out the adjustments Shadyone made for

FT and 3 Pt disparities, the System went 3-2 based

on the pure Defensive efficiency numbers playing on

those teams with more than 3 points difference in ratings.

Virg Tech,Ohio St. and Tulsa won. Nebraska and Ill St. lost.

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