Posted Sunday, December 01, 2013 04:12 AM
I rarely ever do betting in College ball, except when key factors fall into place and underestimate a team like the Billikens. Here's one of them and my rationale:
1) Oddsmakers put out a ranked 7-0 Wichita State team +2 against an UNRANKED St Louis team that is 6-1. Just as thought, 65% of the public is taking the points. I don't care if it's #1 Michigan State vs Arkansas Pine-Bluff, in ALL major sports it's very dangerous to take the ranked dog and has been for the favorite...doesn't matter how many pts are being laid.
2) Look at all the past games last year St Louis has played at HOME. In their 18 regular season home games, the Billikens have beaten their opponents by an AVERAGE of 17 pts. That's including shutting down Butler, Dayton, Southern Ill, and VCU. Yes, this season started off no different, killing Oral Roberts by 17 and Bowling Green by 24.
3) Defenses. While WSU holds their opponents to 38.6% shooting and 27.3% from the arc, St Louis is no joke - 39.5% shooting, and 24.5% from the arc. What is the missing piece of info? WSU played an opener against Emporia State, a Division II team --WTF is that -- and demolished them 93-50. Take that pancake win away and stats favor the Billikens.
I predict a defensive battle in the 1st half, but tenacious D and good FT shooting to make a 3-7pt win by St Louis. Money in bank to put in your NFL Sunday picks. Fade me i... [More]
Posted Saturday, December 31, 2011 05:47 AM
Quarterback Passer Rating
Zach Collaros = 140, 2nd in Big East, Completion = 64%
Jordan Rodgers = 119, Completion = 51%
3rd Down Conversion %
Cinci = 39%, Vandy = 32%Most Sacks per game:
Cinci = 1st
Most tackles for loss:
Cinci = .92 (12th), Vandy = .17 (Tied 42nd)
Pass Efficiency Defense (Lower=Better)
Cinci = 128 (59th), Vandy = 117 (22nd)
Posted Wednesday, December 08, 2010 02:39 AM
I believe it is wiser to take the Arkansas +3 points, and I'm a Buckeye fan. I love my Bucks, and I will always be rooting for my alma mater...but I'm still realistic.
I have been living in Florida for damn near 10 years, have watched a ton of LSU/Florida/Auburn/ SC/Arkansas games, as well as Big 10 games. But the SEC has time and again outshined the SEC-Big-10 bowls of recent years. We've already heard about the 0-8 OSU vs SEC, and as well the 2007/08 BCS National champ outcomes, but let's talk about relevant facts now:
Fact 1) Arkansas' strength of schedule is #6th overall nationally, with their opponents' win percentage at 61.9%. They carry the SEC's most efficient Red-Zone offense, a huge 91% clip is either a touchdown or a field goal. By the way, against their last 10 opponents, they covered 9-1.
Fact 1a) With the #2 ranked best defense, Ohio State's SOS is 55th nationally (remember they played 3 cupcakes), where their opponents win percentage is only 50.8%. Not bad for Ohio State, but it just shows you how much more falsely-perceived an 11-1 record looks compared to Arkansas, who played 2 non-con teams. Quite so this pseudo-overrated factor of Ohio State comes into consideration each and every year by the human pollsters.
Fact 2) Petrino's Bowl record is 3-2 since he started at Louisville in 2003. The last one in the Liberty Bowl 2010, was won by 3 points, yet his A... [More]
Posted Thursday, October 14, 2010 11:28 AM
Tonights game will be a good Big East minor rivalry between the Bulls and the Mountaineers. The Mountaineers have been fairly solid this season in their wins, but per my outlook, and covers' Experts 9-5 favoring USF, I'm going to get the points.
South Florida: 3-2 SU, 1-3 ATS
West Virginia: 4-1 SU, 3-1 ATSSouth Florida lost its last outing,
a 13-9 result against Syracuse on October 9.West Virginia was a 49-10 winner in their most recent
outing at home against UNLV.South Florida has won three of the last four meetings.
South Florida won the last meeting 30-19 at home on October 30, 2009Edge: Bulls... [More]