demapples's Blog

Posted Friday, January 21, 2011 04:51 PM

Sunday 1/23 Conference Championship Games

It's been very long since I've posted on these boards, but I figured I'd document these great games coming up on Sunday.

GB (-3.5) @ CHI (43)

Of all the statistics and trends I've read regarding this game, none other seems to have more weight than: In his last 9 starts, Aaron Rodgers has thrown 22 TD passes and just 2 INTs in 269 pass attempts, with a .729 completion percentage and a 125.0 passer rating.  Speaking of passer ratings, in his 5 starts vs. the Packers, Jay Cutler has a passer rating on 65.0.  Additionally, Packers are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 meetings in Chicago.  Therefor it's no surprise that I like the favorite in this match-up. 

As for the total, I won't side with Joe Public on this one.  I'll take the over.  In the L5 Packer playoff games, the over has hit 4x.  In the L6 Bears playoff games the over has hit 5x.  I keep hearing about the weather and the field condition and all that stuff and it only solidifies my feelings more. 

PREDITCION: GB 27, CHI 17

NYJ @ PIT (-3.5) 38.5

I like the fact that Mark Sanchez has played relatively well in his couple playoff games.  I think there is value on the other side as last week's performance was just the 4th time all year that he has had multiple TD with no INTs, his last was week 4.  But one of the most powerful statistics has to be; The Steelers haven't allowed a 100 yard rusher in their last 50 regular season games.&n... [More]

Posted Friday, November 13, 2009 04:55 PM

WEEK 10's SUCKER BET brought to you by Tootsie Pop!

"Good morning everyone and welcome to Week 9's edition of the SUCKER BET, as always brought to you by the kind folks at Tootsie Pop!  For those of you who are unfamiliar with the SUCKER BET, each week I identify the games where the public seems to be heavily favoring one side.  Typically there are 3 or 4 choices each week.  From those games, I choose one unpopular pick as the SUCKER BET.  Last week was ANOTHER outright win for the SUCKER BET, bringing our season tally to an even 5-4 ATS.  This week we are going to do something we only done a few times in the past.  There is a total that jumps out in which Joe Public is heavily favoring the over.  Perhaps more so than any on the board this week.  I'm however going to take the under 44 in the Falcons at Panthers match-up.  This week I'm relying heavily on trends.  However there is more to support this play than just trends.  That being said....The Under is 12-2 in the last 14 meetings in Carolina.  The Under is 6-0 in Falcons last 6 games as a road favorite of 0.5-3.0, 6-0 in Falcons last 6 games as a road favorite,  and 7-1 in Falcons last 8 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  The Under is 9-0 in Panthers last 9 home games vs. a team with a winning road record, 4-0 in Panthers last 4 games in Week 1, 4-1 in Panthers last 5 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game, 4-1 in Panthers last 5 home games, 4-1 in... [More]

Posted Friday, October 30, 2009 01:43 PM

WEEK 8's SUCKER BET brought to you by Tootsie Pop!

""Good afternoon everyone and welcome to Week 8's edition of the SUCKER BET, as always brought to you by the kind folks at Tootsie Pop!  For those of you who are unfamiliar with the SUCKER BET, each week I identify the games where the public seems to be heavily favoring one side.  Typically there are 3 or 4 choices each week.  From those games, I choose one unpopular pick as the SUCKER BET.  Last week was tough loss for the SUCKER BET as I was almost guilty of counting my chickens before they hatched.  The Dolphins looked like yet another outright win for the SUCKER BET, but ended up on the wrong side bringing our season tally to 3-4 ATS.  This week I like the Eagles +1 hosting the New York Giants.  The Eagles are playing well at home, which they will need to do because the Giants have won the last 4 ATS in Philly.  These teams are not unlike eachother as they their offenses and defenses score and give up a relatively similar amount of points.  They have balanced offenses and are well coached.  The big difference I see is Turnover Differential as the Eagles are the leaders in the NFL at +11, thanks in large part to their 12 INTs this season.  In their last 13 games coming off a division game, the Eagles are 11-2 ATS.  Eli is a streaking QB and the Eagles are lucky that he isn't flying high right now.  Over the past 2 weeks he has 2 TD passes and 4 INT.  Asante Samuel is hoping he can grab a pick this week a... [More]

Posted Friday, October 09, 2009 10:12 AM

WEEK 5's SUCKER BET brought to you by Tootsie Pop!

"Good morning everyone and welcome to Week 5's edition of the SUCKER BET, as always brought to you by the kind folks at Tootsie Pop!  For those of you who are unfamiliar with the SUCKER BET, each week I identify the games where the public seems to be heavily favoring one side.  Typically there are 3 or 4 choices each week.  From those games, I choose one unpopular pick as the SUCKER BET.  Last week was another winner for the SUCKER BET as the Jaguars won outright bringing the season tally to 2-2 ATS.  This week's SUCKER BET will be no surprise to those who have followed the SUCKER BET for years.  Give me the Titans +4 hosting the Colts.  Clearly from last week's SUCKET BET I don't subscribe to the "They've got to win one sooner or later" theory.  What I do subscribe to is judging how the public reads the line.  Vegas opened the line in this game at Colts -1, from there (not surprisingly) it quickly went up to 4 as the public jumped on the favorite.  Not me, I like the home dog in a divisional rivalry.  Not to mention, the Titans are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0 and they are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a home underdog.  On the other hand, the Colts are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 meetings with the Titans and they are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU win of more than 14 points.  Am I reading this right the Colts defense is 2nd worst in the league at allowing opponents... [More]

Posted Friday, October 02, 2009 09:10 AM

WEEK 4's SUCKER BET brought to you by Tootsie Pop!

"Good morning everyone and welcome to Week 4's edition of the SUCKER BET, as always brought to you by the kind folks at Tootsie Pop!  For those of you who are unfamiliar with the SUCKER BET, each week I identify the games where the public seems to be heavily favoring one side.  Typically there are 3 or 4 choices each week.  From those games, I choose one unpopular pick as the SUCKER BET.  Last week was another nail biter as the Seahawks lost the cover on a game-ending touchdown.  This season all three of the SUCKER BETS looked like strong plays until the closing seconds of the game.  However, our season record stands at 1-2 ATS.  This week I'll take the Jaguars +3 hosting the Titans.  This line opened as a pick'em and the public began heavily supporting the winless Titans driving the lineup to a favorable position for cappers leaning towards the Jags.  In the past, home dogs in a divisional rivialry have faired well for the SUCKER BET.  Overall, I think there are a lot of people supporting the "Titans have to win one here soon" philosphy.  That's not a strong football foundation to wager money on.  What is strong is the fact that the Jaguars have the better rated QB.  The Jaguars are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as a home underdog of 0.5-3.0 and they are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 games as a home underdog.  Conversely, the Titans are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. ... [More]

Posted Wednesday, September 23, 2009 11:01 AM

WEEK 3's SUCKER BET brought to you by Tootsie Pop!

"Good morning everyone and welcome to Week 3's edition of the SUCKER BET, as always brought to you by the kind folks at Tootsie Pop!  For those of you who are unfamiliar with the SUCKER BET, each week I identify the games where the public seems to be heavily favoring one side.  Typically there are 3 or 4 choices each week.  From those games, I choose one unpopular pick as the SUCKER BET.  Last week was a winner for the SUCKER BET as the Texans won outright vs. the Titans.  This week I'm picking the Seahawks +2.5 as they host the Chicago Bears.  According to Covers Consensus, over 75% of cappers are licking their chops at the Bears giving less than a FG.  The line suggests that Joe Public has been backing the Bears since the line opened at Bears -1.  These are all indications I like to see when evaluating a SUCKER BET.  The Bears are coming off a big victory over the Super Bowl champs and Seattle lost a tough divisional matchup on the road to the Niners last week.   Seattle is 35-13 SU over the last six seasons at Quest Field.  Seahawks are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a ATS loss.  Bears are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games.  Bears are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. NFC.  Bears are 1-6-2 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.  Bears are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games in Week 3.  Bears are 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a road fav... [More]

Posted Friday, September 18, 2009 01:49 PM

WEEK 2's SUCKER BET brought to you by Tootsie Pop!

""Good afternoon everybody and welcome to Week 2's edition of the SUCKER BET, as always brought to you by the kind folks at Tootsie Pop!  For those of you who are unfamiliar with the SUCKER BET, each week I identify the games where the public seems to be heavily favoring one side.  Typically there are 3 or 4 choices each week.  From those games, I choose one unpopular pick as the SUCKER BET.  Last week was a tough week for the SUCKER BET as the backdoor cover was taken away by a late Stafford INT and the Saints rolled as many thought they would.  Of the 6 games last week where the public was more than 60% favoring one side, the Broncos were the only unpopular pick to cover.  This week is another tough call to make but I'm taking the Texans +7 in Tennessee.  This line has been sitting at 6.5-7 since it opened which is something I like to see.  The Titans are coming off a tough OT loss vs. the Steelers and everyone in the country watched them play well as the covered ATS.  Conversely, the Texans got beat up badly by the Jets. The Texans have some key players coming back off injury none more important than WR Kevin Walter. Steve Slaton had 2 big games vs. the Titans last season.  Houston had the 4th best passing offense last season (3rd overall). Texans are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog, 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as... [More]

Posted Friday, September 11, 2009 09:47 AM

WEEK 1's SUCKER BET brought to you by Tootsie Pop!

"Good morning everybody and welcome to Week 1's edition of the SUCKER BET brought to you by Tootsie Pop!  For those of you who are unfamiliar with the SUCKER BET,  each week I identify the games where the public seems to be heavily favoring one side.  Typically there are 3 or 4 choices each week.  From those games, I choose one unpopular pick as the SUCKER BET.  I've done this on and off for the past 4 or 5 years or so yielding pretty good results.  One year I think we won 13 or 14 games.  This week's pick is a risky pick, but then again it wouldn't be a SUCKER BET if it wasn't.  Give me the Lions +13.5 in New Orleans.  That New Orleans crowd is going to be pumped.  I don't dwell on the preseason too much, but the Saints were cooking on offense, more so than any other team this preseason.  Then again the Lions went 4-0 last preseason.  But I don't see the Saints sneaking up on anyone this season and I don't see them going 10-5-1 ATS like they did last year.  Conversely I think the Lions are primed to better position themselves to win football games.  They have exorcised the demon of Matt Millen, which can't be understated.  Big money is coming in on the Lions and has been since the line opened at 11.  That's what I like to see in evaluating a SUCKER BET. Pierre Thomas is listed as questionable and might not suit up.  I'm not a believer in Reggie Bush as a full-time back.  Lions are 6-0 A... [More]

Posted Thursday, October 23, 2008 08:51 AM

WEEK 8's SUCKER BET brought to you by Tootsie Pop!

"Good morning everybody and welcome to Week 8's edition of the SUCKER BET brought to you by Tootsie Pop!  For those of you who are unfamiliar with the SUCKER BET,  each week I identify the games where the public seems to be heavily favoring one side.  Typically there are 3 or 4 choices each week.  From those games, I choose one unpopular pick as the SUCKER BET.  Last week was a loserr for the SUCKER BET bringing the season tally to 4-3 ATS.  This week was an easy pick for me.  It's the most lopsided game on the board.  Joe Public is betting on Buffalo more than any other team this week.  Not me.  Give me the Dolphins +2.  First off, this line is fishy to me.  I would have guessed the Bills would be favored by more than 2.  Secondly, the Bills are the only team not to play a divisional game this season.  I'm pretty sure they have three in a row and might possibly be looking past this game.  Pennington is quietly putting together a nice season.  He ranks 4th in the NFL in completetion %.  He has the highest QB rating since 9/21 of QBs who've attempted more than 100 passes.  Also, have you noticed some ofthe play calling on the offensive side of the ball from the Dolphins.  Some creative stuff!  Think Buffalo's offense is clicking with Lunch and Evans?  Miami is averaging more passing and rushing per game than Buffalo.  Buffalo's has had one of the easist schedule... [More]

Posted Thursday, October 09, 2008 08:41 AM

WEEK 6 SUCKER BET brought to you by Tootsie Pop!

"Good morning everybody and welcome to Week 6's edition of the SUCKER BET brought to you by Tootsie Pop!  For those of you who are unfamiliar with the SUCKER BET,  each week I identify the games where the public seems to be heavily favoring one side.  Typically there are 3 or 4 choices each week.  From those games, I choose one unpopular pick as the SUCKER BET.  Last week was a loser for the SUCKER BET as the Texans, more specifically Sage Ronsenfels, crumbled with minutes left in the game.  That brings the season tally to 2-3 ATS.  This week I like the Cardinals +5 hosting the Cowboys.  The Cardinals have looked strong all year, especially last week as the crushed the Bills 41-17 as the won the turnover battle 4-0.  Boldin is out and that hurts, but they have plenty of wideouts in ARI.  With Boldin out, rookie cappers are more hesitant to back ARI, thus keeping our number well above a FG.  The Cowboys' last three wins -- all against teams currently with losing records -- have been by an average of just 8.0 points.  Cowboys are 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.  Cowboys are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  Cowboys are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss.  Cowboys are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 vs. NFC.  Cowboys are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games on grass.  Cowboys are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. win.  Cardinals are 4-1 ATS vs. a team wi... [More]

Posted Thursday, October 02, 2008 04:58 PM

WEEK 5 SUCKER BET brought to you by Tootsie Pop!

"Good afternoon everybody and welcome to Week 5's edition of the SUCKER BET brought to you by Tootsie Pop!  For those of you who are unfamiliar with the SUCKER BET,  each week I identify the games where the public seems to be heavily favoring one side.  Typically there are 3 or 4 choices each week.  From those games, I choose one unpopular pick as the SUCKER BET.  Last week was a winner for the SUCKER BET as the Chiefs took care of business.  That brings the season tally to 2-2 ATS.  Lots to choose from this week, all dogs as usual.  The SUCKER BET has had success in the past siding with home dogs within a divisional rival game.  I'm riding that train again this week as I'm taking the Texans +3 hosting the 1-2 Colts.  Over 78% of cappers on Wagerline/Covers are siding with the Colts this week.  The Colts 2-9 ATS in their last 11 vs. AFC South.  The Colts are 3-7 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.  Colts are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.  Colts are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss.  Colts are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. AFC.  Yes Matt Schaub has a better passer rating the Peyton Manning.  Schaub was 29-for-40 for 307 yards and three touchdowns as the Texans racked up a season-best 386 yards against the Jags last week.  Texans are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games.  Texans are 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.  This game is Houston's ho... [More]

Posted Thursday, September 25, 2008 01:51 PM

WEEK 4 SUCKER BET brought to you by Tootsie Pop!

"Good afternoon everybody and welcome to Week 4's edition of the SUCKER BET brought to you by Tootsie Pop!  For those of you who are unfamiliar with the SUCKER BET,  each week I identify the games where the public seems to be heavily favoring one side.  Typically there are 3 or 4 choices each week.  From those games, I choose one unpopular pick as the SUCKER BET.  Last week was a loss for the SUCKER BET as the Eagles rolled vs. the Steelers.  That brings the season ATS total to 1-2.  Often times because I how the SUCKER BET is laid out, I need to side with some "talent challenged" teams.  This week is no exception as I taking the Chiefs + 10.  Obviously the Joe Public perception is that Denver will win easily here.  The line opened up at 8.5 and has only gone up.  I see a divisional rivaly that should result in a closer than expected finish.  LJ seemed to warm up after a nice performance last week.  The Broncos haven't won 3 straight vs. KC in 16 years.  Broncos have lost four of the last five games at Arrowhead Stadium.  The fact that the Broncos have won 2 close call games that could/should have gone the other way doesn't hurt the Cheifs backers.  Chiefs are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Broncos are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games.  Broncos are 3-13-1 ATS in their last 17 games following a S.U. win.  Broncos are 1-6-1 ATS vs. a tea... [More]

Posted Friday, September 05, 2008 08:39 AM

WEEK 1 SUCKER BET brought to you by TOOTSIE POP

"Good Morning Everybody!  Welcome to Week 1's SUCKER BET once again brought to you by by the fine folks at Tootsie Pop!  For those of you who are unfamiliar with the SUCKER BET, and they're are probably many of you since I didn't do the SUCKER BET post last season; each week I identify the games where the public seems to be heavily favoring one side.  Typically there are 3 or 4 choices each week.  From those games, I choose one unpopular pick as the SUCKER BET.  As many of you know we've had some success doing this over the years.  Let's keep that going!  Truthfully, I'm reluctant to make picks on Week 1 because you haven't had a chance get a feel for which teams might perform better or worse than expected.  That being said, Week 1 also presents an opportunity to identify those games where Vegas (and the Public) might be favoring a team too heavily.  On to the pick....this week I'm picking the Tampa Bay Bucs + 3.5 @ New Orleans Saints.  Almost 72% of cappers on Covers/Wagerline are siding with the Saints.  A potentially potent offense at home seems too good to be true.  But this Bucs defense still is above average and plays well in September (Under 8-2 in L10 in September).  The Bucs have allowed the fewest yards in the NFL twice and ranked among the top 10 statistically 10 times in 12 seasons under defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin.  This TB team beat the Saints both games last year SU.  The key to... [More]