demapples's Blog

Sunday 1/23 Conference Championship Games

By demapples | View all Posts
Posted Friday, January 21, 2011 04:51 PM   25 comments
It's been very long since I've posted on these boards, but I figured I'd document these great games coming up on Sunday.

GB (-3.5) @ CHI (43)

Of all the statistics and trends I've read regarding this game, none other seems to have more weight than: In his last 9 starts, Aaron Rodgers has thrown 22 TD passes and just 2 INTs in 269 pass attempts, with a .729 completion percentage and a 125.0 passer rating.  Speaking of passer ratings, in his 5 starts vs. the Packers, Jay Cutler has a passer rating on 65.0.  Additionally, Packers are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 meetings in Chicago.  Therefor it's no surprise that I like the favorite in this match-up. 

As for the total, I won't side with Joe Public on this one.  I'll take the over.  In the L5 Packer playoff games, the over has hit 4x.  In the L6 Bears playoff games the over has hit 5x.  I keep hearing about the weather and the field condition and all that stuff and it only solidifies my feelings more. 

PREDITCION: GB 27, CHI 17

NYJ @ PIT (-3.5) 38.5

I like the fact that Mark Sanchez has played relatively well in his couple playoff games.  I think there is value on the other side as last week's performance was just the 4th time all year that he has had multiple TD with no INTs, his last was week 4.  But one of the most powerful statistics has to be; The Steelers haven't allowed a 100 yard rusher in their last 50 regular season games.  I can't believe this line isn't closer to  5 or 6.  Which makes me feel like I falling into a SUCKER trap.  But I can't take the other side, so I'll take the chalk.

As for the total, I think this game goes over as well.  Pittsburgh's young receivers are going to be able to make a significant impact.  I think the Steelers can put 24 points on the board.  In Pittsburgh's last 5 Conference Championship games, ALL have gone over.  In thier last 11 home playoff games, 10 have gone over.  In the Jets last 11 road games, 10 have gone over. 

PREDICTION: NYJ 17, PIT 24

Good Luck Everyone!
25 comments
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dontbreakdasyph says:
01/21/11 04:53PM
Gud luck
Europa says:
01/21/11 04:55PM
It has been long time seeing you since last time. GL, Demapples!
nepatriots_12 says:
01/21/11 05:01PM
Great to see you back! GL on both plays, love the Packers.


Cyrax says:
01/21/11 05:17PM
GL Apple , I like it  
BayBridgeTunnel says:
01/21/11 05:24PM
Good to see ya...missed the bet of the week this season...
sungod95 says:
01/21/11 07:54PM
 Great to see you posting.Try to make it around more often,
phat03 says:
01/21/11 09:38PM
Gridguesser says:
01/21/11 10:34PM
I think the Jets will put Derrell Revis on Mike Wallace and take him out of the game and Cromartie on Ward, but who covers that Brown guy for Pittsburgh ? He caught  that 3rd and 19 last week !! Its a game of match-up's. Tha last game  the Jets punter buried Pittsburgh 3 times in side the 5 yard line and the Jets average starting position was at there own 35 yard line, so they won the field position and thus the game. They also had a safety and the opening kick off was run back for a TD. So, there is 9 pts right there. I believe the Steelers will stuff the run game and make Sanchez beat them with his arm. Can Sanchez deliver ??? The Steeler defense will be in his face all day thats for sure. What about the Steelers offensive line, how beat up are they ?? The Steelers offense is best in the NFL on 3rd down conversions.
Blackshirt51 says:
01/21/11 11:54PM

Demapples...........Have a great weekend Guy...........Get the sucker play going again ok ........I love the old Sucker Play................

daysbtwin says:
01/22/11 12:38AM

GL Demapples but I think that packers 9-3ats trend has nothing to do with this matchup.

I mean 12 seasons ago we are talking Dick Jauron/ CadeMcNown/ Curtis Enis territory

Sharp__Action says:
01/22/11 12:40AM
WHOA, blast from the past.

GL DemApples
bobozoid says:
01/22/11 07:14AM

 like pitt/jets over also

BigEastExpert says:
01/22/11 07:36AM

Good stuff demapples. Like both of those sides.

BOL

KktdocT says:
01/22/11 07:38AM
GL.
CASTORTROY says:
01/22/11 08:31AM

Great to read you again!!

 

Like your takes on both --good luck!!

D-Town says:
01/22/11 08:44AM

Long time no see!!!!

Good luck with the plays. 

 

Ap1Bfreetorun says:
01/22/11 08:49PM
Good to see you post, demapples.  Good luck on both your plays.
Skipster says:
01/22/11 08:59PM
nice to see you back.
jasonhhh says:
01/22/11 09:04PM

yeah i like both games with the favorite and overs im doing a 2 bet parlay for each game and a four for both packers -3/13 over steelers -3 1/2 over a football team like the jets have no offense and with troy back oh and miller at te gonna be unstopable and jets running gamr gets stuffed making sanchez throw bogus passes and a few interceptions

welcome to mr rogers neighborhood this guy is too hot bears arent that good cutler will get taken by the packers d

WizrduvOdz says:
01/22/11 09:21PM

If u get them all, I go 2-2.   I like the Bears and over, Pitt and under.  

Everyone on GB, but I'm on Chi brcuse of their record under Lovie against the Pack (6-2)  They may not win, but I think they'll win or lose by a FG.  Both defenses are very good, but I think both teams will hit the 20s.  I think Hester will get a ccouple chances to give Chi good field position.  27-24 either way

 

As for the AFC,  I think Pitt shuts down Jets run game and puts too much on Sanchez's shoulders.  Big Ben wont be able to go outside but he'll use screens and up the middlle to get a coule scores    Pitt 20  Jets 10

BOL, and I apologize if it bothers you that I typed all this

5time786 says:
01/22/11 10:40PM

 apples

 

LaDaddy says:
01/22/11 10:47PM
davidn28 says:
01/22/11 11:14PM
PIT and under GB and under     but bol
mel2233 says:
01/22/11 11:17PM
Love the plays
TomBrady12 says:
01/23/11 02:06AM
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