demapples's Blog

WEEK 1 SUCKER BET brought to you by TOOTSIE POP

By demapples | View all Posts
Posted Friday, September 05, 2008 08:39 AM   94 comments
"Good Morning Everybody!  Welcome to Week 1's SUCKER BET once again brought to you by by the fine folks at Tootsie Pop!  For those of you who are unfamiliar with the SUCKER BET, and they're are probably many of you since I didn't do the SUCKER BET post last season; each week I identify the games where the public seems to be heavily favoring one side.  Typically there are 3 or 4 choices each week.  From those games, I choose one unpopular pick as the SUCKER BET.  As many of you know we've had some success doing this over the years.  Let's keep that going!  Truthfully, I'm reluctant to make picks on Week 1 because you haven't had a chance get a feel for which teams might perform better or worse than expected.  That being said, Week 1 also presents an opportunity to identify those games where Vegas (and the Public) might be favoring a team too heavily.  On to the pick....this week I'm picking the Tampa Bay Bucs + 3.5 @ New Orleans Saints.  Almost 72% of cappers on Covers/Wagerline are siding with the Saints.  A potentially potent offense at home seems too good to be true.  But this Bucs defense still is above average and plays well in September (Under 8-2 in L10 in September).  The Bucs have allowed the fewest yards in the NFL twice and ranked among the top 10 statistically 10 times in 12 seasons under defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin.  This TB team beat the Saints both games last year SU.  The key to the game, TB must NOT turnover the football.  Since 2002, the Buccaneers are 17-0 SU when not committing a turnover!  In the Saints L19 games, they are 6-13 ATS and 17-36-2 in their L55.  Additionally the road team is 8-2 ATS in these teams L10 matchups together.  Also, the underdog is 9-3 ATS in the L12 mathcups.  There you have it, the Bucs +3.5.  Good Luck to everyone this year and see you next week for Week 2's SUCKER BET brought to you by Tootsie Pop!" 
94 comments
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D-Town says:
09/05/08 08:41AM
Welcome back Demapples.  Good luck with your play. 
reportadui says:
09/05/08 08:44AM
Glad to see your back!!
WilliamMunny says:
09/05/08 09:09AM
welcome back!!! If you watched this forum last yr there were many pretenders trying to give us a sucker bet. glad to see the original is back
tuxman says:
09/05/08 09:19AM
Hope all has been good. GL this year.
Mcmanus says:
09/05/08 09:30AM
GOOD LUCK MAN
sportsladyd says:
09/05/08 09:32AM
So nice to see you again demapples...you kow how much I love your sucker bet pick-o-the-week!  GL as always, SLD
boogreenz says:
09/05/08 09:50AM
I like it! 
WussieMan says:
09/05/08 09:54AM
 I just may go back and doubleup now...... Dem Apples is back!!!!!!

 

 

 

Europa says:
09/05/08 10:12AM
Nice to see another good 'ol poster, Dem Apples, back to forum!

 

May drop few coins on the Bucs too.

 

retire_early says:
09/05/08 10:24AM

Local bookies are always -110

DiscoD69 says:
09/05/08 10:35AM
Dog is 10-3 SU & 11-2 ATS in series since '01.

 

I agree with everything you said, that's why I probably won't be on the Saints, but I have no faith in the Bucs offence to keep em close, I'm stating away, gun to my head, I'm on your side. I see the Saints covering in my gut... so no play for me.

 

BOL

woody7777 says:
09/05/08 11:12AM
Nice to see you back...good luck with pick and the season
xflrejects says:
09/05/08 11:13AM
LOVE THIS ONE.....PIGSKIN SEASON! Here's to a great campaign Apples!
Europa says:
09/05/08 11:14AM
Bucs +4 (-125), I am in for small coattail.  
StrayCat says:
09/05/08 11:40AM
Welcome back demapples!!! You're sucker bets have always been money. I'm ready for another great season and looking forward to your posts. Good luck!

 

tito40 says:
09/05/08 11:51AM
Well, it;s great to see you back - BOL this season - 
luckyly says:
09/05/08 01:03PM
bol  great 2 see ya back
Precise1 says:
09/05/08 01:09PM
Good teh see you back DemEnjoy reading your analysis of the sucker bet
EM63 says:
09/05/08 01:18PM
why do i cap better when your around? 

 

nice to see you this season!

 

BOL

UglyKidJoe says:
09/05/08 01:29PM


GL
RobertoFiory says:
09/05/08 01:49PM

I value your input demapples

Welcome back and good luck TY

grindstone says:
09/05/08 03:48PM
Welcome back great pick

 

LOVE YOUR TOPIC BEEN READING IT FOR A WHILE LOOK FOWARD TO IT EACH WEEK

 

GL

Slingzz says:
09/05/08 09:19PM


Demapples is one of the greats.....
I thought New Orleans looked good...but i cant be the sucker
Good luck
MEGALOCKS says:
09/05/08 10:11PM
cthunder says:
09/05/08 10:29PM
always enjoyed your write ups, glad to see you back

gl this season 

 

                 

Maraino_kulot says:
09/05/08 10:36PM
Welcome back
PASA818 says:
09/05/08 11:21PM
I thought Sucker Bets are home team that are dog which they win outright.  The Bucs are road dog, so this game doesn't look like a true Sucker Bets.

When the lines come out, take a look at them. Is there

any line that sticks out and seems "too good to be true"? A good way to

test this is to talk to friends that gamble on football games, yet they

do not put in any time handicapping. They are truly the "public eye".

Ask them which games they like this week. My guess is that they will be

wagering on the games that appeared (at first glance) "too good to be

true".

delsgpi220 says:
09/06/08 10:51PM
Flutiemaniac341 says:
09/07/08 09:57AM
I remember ur picks as well. Probably the only guy here who made money on a system play.

 

I thought the whole idea of luring the public in was based on people winning the first few weeks of the season to give them a false sense of security betting the nfl then taking all their money the rest of the way. So already ur theory is flawed. Either way ur still throwing darts at a board so goodluck u'll need it.

 

Day-trader1 says:
09/06/08 11:56PM
... welcome back friend... Good luck
dl36 says:
09/06/08 11:59PM
Welcome back Demapples... GL
YoungOne says:
09/07/08 12:14PM
TB +3.5???

That may be the sweetest .5 of the year for you demapples

heres to another great year bro
baseball467 says:
09/07/08 05:09AM
glad to see you back,gl this season
96chey says:
09/07/08 10:24AM
welcome back  , let make some
colt45 says:
09/06/08 11:54PM
Demapples
rod_steel says:
09/05/08 11:55PM
Tootsie Pop
cheeseteam says:
09/05/08 11:21PM
Welcome back, like the pick, GL!
bobozoid says:
09/07/08 07:57AM
Welcome back Demapples.  Good luck with your play.
ravenzone says:
09/06/08 04:46AM
  Welcome back tootsie pop


black_hawk says:
09/07/08 09:26AM
Welcome back Demapples!  Here's to making some money this season.

 

Cheers,

Jim

dnguyen59 says:
09/06/08 08:30PM
blondebomber says:
09/07/08 08:03AM
The original is back. No pretenders. Good to see u again.
jcpsaints says:
09/07/08 11:48AM
RESPECT!!!!!!!!!!!!
moosehunter says:
09/06/08 05:23PM
blublud says:
09/07/08 04:40AM
tb  is the play here
thejudge1000 says:
09/07/08 12:01AM
All makes sense to me. 

84% of the public is on NO -3. 

GL Sunday. 

clsmooth says:
09/07/08 09:04AM
nice too see you again my friend. good luck and I look forward to a good year with YOUR picks
Locksmith20 says:
09/06/08 08:06PM
I was looking for a guy to follow this season and I couldnt have found a better person. I remember your picks from the past and I also vaguely remember you saying you were leaving.

Im glad your back,LETS GET THEM.

For people who dont know, this guy went something like 11-4 a couple seasons ago. He relies on sucker bets that the public hammers.

Cheers!
BigNiner says:
09/06/08 04:40PM
Dem Fucking Apples

 

The legend returns.

 

I never knew if I'd see the day.

 

You have been missed around here my friend! Best of luck with the play this weekend. I was leaning towards New Orleans, but it REALLy worries me that you are on Tampa.

 

 

 

Bigwhip says:
09/07/08 11:37AM
Welcome back....and great pick. GL this yr
Sharkysden says:
09/06/08 11:16PM
Welcome back tootsie pop, I have TB and was trying to figure out why the public likes the Saints so much.  Then I realized the press hyped them up. 
rschuay28 says:
09/06/08 01:58AM
VARMITCONG says:
09/07/08 10:33AM
I'm with you on this one.  New Orleans being displaced this week is going to be a set back for several of these guys.  Tampa has a decent defense and New Orleans has several holes that will allow Tampa to win this game straight up.

Tampa 23  New Orleans 20
lrempel says:
09/06/08 11:49PM
Demapples F'n good to see you back. If I recall right you started a business last year that you did not have the time to put in on this? Hope that is still going well for you. Looking forward to seeing it weekly.
madshooter72 says:
09/07/08 12:25PM
Welcome back Demapples, Glad to see you back. 
MILKMAN0923 says:
09/07/08 11:20AM
i like this one too....i think the bucs win SU...BOL
Retburj13 says:
09/06/08 01:41AM
gl toostie

good to see ya around
JW1LS says:
09/06/08 08:19PM
great to see you around!!!  i like tampa in this spot also.

 

GL this year!!!

cowboydave says:
09/07/08 09:58AM

 

Good to see you back!

1pumpchump says:
09/07/08 11:19AM
Who is this tootsie, and why am I in love with him??
1pumpchump says:
09/06/08 10:18PM
ItalianSharp says:
09/07/08 10:57AM
welcome back.

did you bet at all last season?  or did you take a year off?
197 says:
09/07/08 10:51AM
welcome back demapples let's get this money! no doubt the bucs baby and the line droped to -3. am with you on this one.
dcmc34f says:
09/07/08 12:00PM
WELCOME BACK demapples, don't know who you are, but alot of folks are with ya. Grindstone, nice avatar
michaelpaul1 says:
09/07/08 12:12PM
SAINTS
michaelpaul1 says:
09/07/08 12:21PM
ME TOO...
Bucci020 says:
09/07/08 11:07AM
love the write up demapples

 

good luck

Meeka says:
09/07/08 12:09PM
Great to see you back and I am hoping that you have as great a year as you did in the past with the sucker bets 
CRodge3 says:
09/07/08 11:52AM
im fading you.....sorry
CRodge3 says:
09/07/08 11:52AM
im fading you.....sorry
Saint_John says:
09/07/08 08:50AM
Aw man!!!!! Say it aint so! I am a huge Saints fan and I knew when I saw your thread that the Bucs would be the pick!

 

It certainly makes sense with my teams past history but we have major upgrades in Vilma and Big Sedrick.

 

Garcia, Brooks and Gallloway are a year older.

 

Don't underestimate the Saints back in the Dome after the hurricane. The fans will be PUMPED.

 

Hopefully we are not the sucker today!

KJParlay says:
09/07/08 11:44AM
Couldn't agree more, love the Bucs.
skillet says:
09/07/08 11:15AM
DemApples.....on Tampa here too, now getting them at +4.  Very evenly matched teams IMO.  Where NO might have slight offensive advantages, Tampa has similary advantages on D.  Everyone is hyping NO up big, Brees, healthe Bush and McCallister, Colesten, and nnow the Shockey addition.  They're acting like these are wrinkles that Kiffin hasn't ever seen before and wont have an answer for.  There is a reason Bucs have been in Top 5 total D something like 10 of last 12 yrs under Kiffin.  Each does his individual job and as a team they play their scheme perfectly.

 

Perhaps the bigger lean though is NO's defense.  Was not very good last year and couldn't stop anything in the air.  Don't see where they've had enough major upgrades to drastically improve that.  They'll need to outscore teams to win.  They'll be able to outscore most teams.  But most teams don't have Bucs defense and Monte Kiffins scheme.

MakinBacon says:
09/07/08 12:21PM
Great post knowing 72% or more of your readers are against it.  I love the pick...ALT, MIA and TB all fall in this same category.
wagerlessinjax says:
09/05/08 11:31PM
Love the pick, thanks for the write-up. GO JAGS!
madashman says:
09/07/08 11:18AM
Interesting stuff and like the pick
steezy says:
09/05/08 11:58PM

JackMeoff says:
09/07/08 11:50AM
Best of luck.  Love the play!
mhawkel says:
09/07/08 08:07AM
supercute says:
09/06/08 09:48PM
Hey Demaples, I love your suckerbet picks!  They are always right on.  Going with you and tampa this weeks as well.  Do you have any college football posts, or are they all college?

http://cheehee.com/users/new
beta code: pickingwinners
demapples says:
09/08/08 08:30AM
Tough loss gang.  Close one the whole way.  TB went the whole game without turning the ball over until Garcia threw that late pick.  We learned a lot about both of these teams.  Knowledge we can take into the upcoming weeks.  Let's get 'em next week!
priano says:
09/08/08 04:22PM
good effort man, i'll keep looking for this each week.  Usually you are money, but even when you are not you have good insight and it's a creative little idea to follow, makes things that much more fun.  Good luck with any plays you make tonight.
CrusCrnshw says:
09/07/08 04:55PM
tough loss...but glad to see you back Demapples!!
bucknuts says:
09/08/08 12:36AM

were you born an ahole or did u have to work at it?

sungod95 says:
09/07/08 12:29PM
 Geat to see you on here again!!
MarylandManson says:
09/08/08 08:35AM


A reason why all the good posters got driven away
MarylandManson says:
09/08/08 08:36AM


Classy
wallstreetcappers says:
09/08/08 12:52AM


Show some class..this poster has been on the site 5 years longer than you and so one play loses, there was no need for you to make that kind of message.
sizzler says:
09/08/08 04:46PM
Tough to be on the wrong side of the hook.

It's good to get that one out of the way early.

GL

 

-Sizz

dcmc34f says:
09/07/08 09:41PM
Glad to have DEMAPPLES back, again, I don't know who the hell you are, but it's great 2  have u " opposite side of your chest"
michaelpaul1 says:
09/08/08 02:42AM
Wall...sorry...no offense intended...believe me...I know about wins and losses...I've had my fair share of them ...Demapples...I'm sure you'll get back on track... How about those Bears !
michaelpaul1 says:
09/07/08 04:18PM
wasnt a sucker bet after all...
putz56 says:
09/08/08 08:46AM
Any thoughts on two monday nite games? Will packers win without favre.Can broncos keep beating raiders? Demapples,What do u think.Looking for opinions.
Neef says:
09/08/08 04:49PM
I was a sucker yesterday and had NO.
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