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WEEK 3's SUCKER BET brought to you by Tootsie Pop!

By demapples | View all Posts
Posted Wednesday, September 23, 2009 11:01 AM

95 comments

"Good morning everyone and welcome to Week 3's edition of the SUCKER BET, as always brought to you by the kind folks at Tootsie Pop! For those of you who are unfamiliar with the SUCKER BET, each week I identify the games where the public seems to be heavily favoring one side. Typically there are 3 or 4 choices each week. From those games, I choose one unpopular pick as the SUCKER BET. Last week was a winner for the SUCKER BET as the Texans won outright vs. the Titans. This week I'm picking the Seahawks +2.5 as they host the Chicago Bears. According to Covers Consensus, over 75% of cappers are licking their chops at the Bears giving less than a FG. The line suggests that Joe Public has been backing the Bears since the line opened at Bears -1. These are all indications I like to see when evaluating a SUCKER BET. The Bears are coming off a big victory over the Super Bowl champs and Seattle lost a tough divisional matchup on the road to the Niners last week. Seattle is 35-13 SU over the last six seasons at Quest Field. Seahawks are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a ATS loss. Bears are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games. Bears are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. NFC. Bears are 1-6-2 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. Bears are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games in Week 3. Bears are 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a road favorite of 0.5-3.0. Bears are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win. The Under is 8-2 in CHI last 10 road games which could suggest a lean towards the underdog. No defense is holding their opponents to a lower 3rd down conversion rate than the Seahawks (26%). Only 1 other defense (DEN) has allowed fewer 1st downs/game. This could be considered a look ahead game for the Bears as they continue on the road next week to play the Lions. In 2008 the Bears lost both games leading up to the Lions games both SU and ATS. Jeff Saragin of the USA Today has the Seahawks ranked higher than the Bears (13/20). How many yards per carry are the Bears averaging this season you ask? How about 2.6 y/c, good for 2nd worst in the league. Da Bears are averaging just 64.5 yards on the ground this season (vs Seattle's 116.5). There you have, Seahawks +2.5 hosting the Bears this week. Good Luck to everyone this week and we'll see you next week for WEEK 4's SUCKER BET brought to you by Tootsie Pop!"

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WussieMan says:

09/23/09 11:06AM

i can't do it. they are terrible!!! thought you'd be on the bills or detroit although. Goodluck. We both gonna need it this week...

newkid says:

09/23/09 11:07AM

KOAJ says:

09/23/09 11:12AM

fyi - hasselback has a fractured rib

seneca wallace probably will be starting this week

spork says:

09/23/09 11:16AM

Great writeup as always brother. I hope you are wrong, as I am on the Bears this week...I guess you can't be right every week

I hope this is the week that you aren't on your A game. Best of luck.

D-Town says:

09/23/09 11:21AM

Good luck Demapples.

webba says:

09/23/09 11:26AM

That 2.5 point line will have the minions playing DaBears....The books set it that way for a reason.

Like the play Dem

ac_dc says:

09/23/09 11:28AM

Hi demapples, I have a question. What % does the public have to be on before it is a good time to go against them? is it 65 % or higher? what % do you like to use?

Ducati says:

09/23/09 12:54PM

Love it!

1919 says:

09/23/09 01:51PM

Bears backers need to calm down. Seneca Wallace has started a bunch of games. he is a good back-up. Seattle is a tough place to win. the line just went from Chi -2.5 to -1.5

also, what the hell is going on with the Oak/Den spread? there is no way that the public is betting Denver on the road so much that the line swings from Oak -2.5 to +1.5 - fishy, fishy

buckubad says:

09/23/09 02:19PM

not to mention anyone who thinks bears finish better then 3rd in the nfc north are crazy, their def is awful and cutler will lose 3-4 games on his own, hes already lost one

jmb9 says:

09/23/09 02:39PM

cant bet the hawks. especially with wallace

luckythirteen says:

09/23/09 02:46PM

this thread has gotten worse over the past year and a half.......not enough thought has been put into what the sucker bet of the week is and it is getting posted earlier and earlier in the week which doesnt give you enough indication of who the general betting public is on, as they tend to play late in the week or on gameday...........if i were posting this pick, it would be done on sunday mornings

IgetMoney101 says:

09/23/09 02:54PM

Love that play demapples. Specially cuz its a 4 oclock nationally telivised game. Just look at the past 2 weeks in that slot public was on the Gmen and they didnt cover week after public was on Pitt and they lost. Da Bears all the way!

Pat2b27 says:

09/23/09 03:02PM

The only thing with your trends is Seattle is without Hasselback and the Bears now have a QB in Cutler. I think this game has turned into a stay away.

gambling-devil says:

09/23/09 03:10PM

So you are 1-1 after week-2
I would not call this a sucker bet. This is a stay away bet.

NSFL says:

09/23/09 03:27PM

People have a short memory...Demapples absolutely killed it with his sucker bets in the past...I'm talking KILLED...he was unstoppable

All you naysayers get out of this thread...you obviously don't have much history at Covers.com

Thanks for the thread demapples!! The spread on that game certainly is curious and begging for CHItown action

Biscuit says:

09/23/09 03:41PM

Jeff Saragin of the USA Today has the Seahawks ranked higher than the Bears (13/20).

Heh. I looked up those Sagarin ratings. He also has the Broncos ranked #6.

I always enjoy your posts, demapples, but I'm backing da Bears this week

Boise_Brian says:

09/23/09 04:59PM

I concur with SEATTLE, btw Senca Wallace started like 8 games last year.

Also, what are your thoughts on JAX +4???

last week hou won a high scoring battle, jax looked horrible vs. the cards...

since '02.... hou is 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS

Seems like Houston is obvious... I'll think I'll take the 4 pts with JAX

GL bro

Billystick13 says:

09/23/09 05:27PM

Billystick13 says:

09/23/09 05:28PM

demapples where at in PA?

Blackshirt51 says:

09/23/09 05:39PM

looks good

Godfather16 says:

09/23/09 06:47PM

It seems like a nice play, but I watched Wallace last week, he was terrible, couldn't do a damn thing. You can say he wasn't ready, whatever, but he's been around now for several years, and he should be prepared to come in the second half, just like as if he was starting the game.

Gold_Rush says:

09/23/09 07:20PM

You must be smoking crack when you watch football

The Bears Defense is fantastic. Did you watch the MNF game vs the Pack, one slip of a DB was the reason why they lost

I LOVE THEIR DEFENSE

The whole idea of a sucker bet is to take a team that no one wants to play. Hence you are on the bookies side

The road less traveled - is the road most profitable.

Kudos Demapples. I may just lay on Seattle when I get to Vegas on sunday morning....Keep dem coming bro!!!

samuelsosa says:

09/23/09 07:54PM

Enjoy the read Demapples.

You have me just about convinced.

spork says:

09/23/09 08:05PM

I agree 100%. I am betting Chicago this weekend but Demapples has been killing it forEVER. Even going back 3-4 years ago, he was still untouchable. I am just hoping that he is wrong this week but don't get it twisted. I absolutely HATE that I am on the other side of him this week.

BigZman says:

09/23/09 08:10PM

GL Demapples!

VW!

garretdoherty says:

09/23/09 08:21PM

its obviously a no play r seattle

luckythirteen says:

09/23/09 08:22PM

he definately killed it 3 years ago, but the last two years have been VERY AVERAGE............

oilfieldt says:

09/27/09 10:17AM

GL...

Flutiemaniac341 says:

09/26/09 06:05PM

Wouldnt you choose jacksonville instead of Seatle if you really had cajones for a sucker bet reverse.

Seatle is a great home team historically with Chicago traveling across country. Chicago isnt a comforting pick for the "public"

The Jags look awful and there playing a team that destroyed one of the best defenses in the NFL on the road.

Those wagerline numbers are bullshit, FYI thats not real money.

kickinA says:

09/25/09 12:38AM

Is MLB Lofa Tatupu expected to play? His absence was critical as Frank Gore took off on two long TD runs last week.

Anyone heard from "demoranges" and his "public" plays? (demapples' archnemesis)........those were the days.

bolt71 says:

09/25/09 12:42AM

no way

seatle will not do well

Mcmanus says:

09/24/09 06:26PM

Good Luck

luckythirteen says:

09/24/09 12:09AM

buffalo should be this weeks sucker bet

bucknuts says:

09/27/09 11:40AM

That awful D ranked

6th yds per play

3rd yds per rush

3rd yds per pass

5th rush yds per game

2nd in turnovers........looking at the numbers this Bears team is the opposite of the Denver team Cutler left...Chi had no offense last year....Denver had no defense..

Also how did Cutler lose the game??Did he make the WRs and TEs stop the routes or cut them short???Did you watch the game?

Bears win today....sucker bet is 1-2 after this week....its a forum u fkn tards there will be some people who dont agree,thats make u a hater????

frank the tank says:

09/26/09 07:03PM

I was hoping you'd be on Titans BOL

ncg33 says:

09/23/09 08:38PM

Now did you think that NO -1 last week against Phily was a sucker bet? Very similar situation here. Yes the Bears offense is not as good as NO, but Seattles D is beat up and are no where close to what Phily had and NO still won by 20+. Go Bears! 38-6

PASA818 says:

09/27/09 10:26AM

Giants -6.5 look like a sucker

andydtc says:

09/24/09 01:08AM

I like it, if Matt doesn't go Seneca will get more reps this week w/ the starters and be fine, especially at home. He is a different kind of qb than Matt. Pro bowl LT Walter Jones and center chris spencer should be back this week along with WR Deion Branch, and Brandon Mebane who is a huge part of the D line. The Hawks do have injuries but will not give this one away. Qwest is the loudest stadium in the NFL and no gimme for Cutler. Yes, I'm a homer but Seattle will weather this storm.

andydtc says:

09/24/09 01:16AM

Key outs on D are corner Trufant and Leroy Hill. Seattle is fairly deep, the secondary is an issue, but with a wild card like Cutler who knows where the fuck he'll be throwing it. Even though the hawks are in their lime greens this week he still may have a pick or 2. Granted Seattle looked like dog shit last week, they always do on the road!

sportsladyd says:

09/27/09 11:21AM

GL demapples...I'm riding with ya on SEA

HappyKane says:

09/24/09 08:26PM

barry69 says:

09/27/09 02:30AM

go skins

mrjiggyfly says:

09/24/09 07:04PM

Demapples is good at what he does thats for sure

frogster says:

09/24/09 11:07AM

Hi demapples, I am with on this pick. GL to us both.

lancer89074 says:

09/25/09 10:23AM

The Seahawks are a wondrous piece of Tres Leches Cake amigo. All the way to the payout window. Seattle is favored against the spread on sportsinsights by 87%. Bring it home.

accventures says:

09/27/09 11:21AM

mackdady18 says:

09/27/09 11:05AM

I'M WITH U ON THIS ONE AND LOOKING AT OAKLAND AS WELL !

mackdady18 says:

09/27/09 11:06AM

LIKE UR PICK ALSO LOOKING AT OAKLAND

mackdady18 says:

09/27/09 11:07AM

LIKE UR PLAY ALSO ON OAKLAND

RCB says:

09/27/09 10:32AM

RCB says:

09/27/09 10:33AM

JackSmack says:

09/27/09 10:11AM

Seneca last year- 11 tds and only 2 picks, with no wrs!

Now hes got some targets

Why all the Seneca hate? Cuz of one half of football last week?

Splooge says:

09/25/09 04:21PM

Call me a sucker this week I'm on other side. Seneca Wallace ...no thanks

redskinsnut says:

09/25/09 04:25PM

All of this negativity toward this pick enforces the fact that it is indeed a sucker bet. Keep the hate coming. I like Seattle more and more.

scho525 says:

09/24/09 08:19PM

The opening line was fair, Chicago is a better team. The movement in line probably coincides with the public finding out Hasselbeck is out. I can understand some bettors being skeptical about the taking the Bears in this game, but there is no way someone could confidently wager money on a Seneca Wallace led team. Jay Cutler is a tough person to back as well, since he basically is Jeff George with a worse haircut. Point is if you don't like the Bears then just don't touch this game at all.

HeadOverHeart says:

09/27/09 03:10AM

Is this the same sucker bet as the Saints -11.5 versus the Lions in Week One?

SexyMit says:

09/25/09 04:13PM

Yep I"ve been waiting for the line to go up all week! It won't get to 3 I'm all over Seattle!

mike214 says:

09/27/09 10:47AM

Thanks GL!

Jimmag says:

09/25/09 04:20PM

This will be one of the games where you are sitting there chewing off your nails

Take the points and good luck demapples

BurningPlanet26 says:

09/24/09 02:44AM

MIN -6.5 vs 49ers didn't pop up on your radar?

I am surprised. Was so sure that would be your pick. Got to imagine the public is all over the superteam Vikings at home laying less than a TD even if the 9ers look on the upswing. And the public will lose that one, IMO. Line seems low at casual glance and many will bite.

But your Hawks pick looks pretty solid so GL. As always a fun read.

BurningPlanet26 says:

09/24/09 02:46AM

Yeah that was my second guess.

Orangemen44 says:

09/24/09 08:19AM

Good Luck

I agree with the sucker bet this week. Seattle covers, but im not stupid enough to touch this game.

Booshasta says:

09/27/09 03:34AM

Demapples,

Love the play. Its actually one of my bigger plays. I know their is couple injuries on defense but they have enough defensive players to contain the run and put pressure on Jay Cutler. How I see this is with the noise of the home field advantage, its a huge advantage in this game. Also with Chicago just playing a brutal hard hitting down to the wire game against the super bowl champs. This Chicago team should be tired in the second half and I see Senaca Wallace controlling the second half game. All I read is how bad Senaca is. Actually he is not that bad. What is the main thing you ask your QB to do? Well to me is protect the ball and dont turn it over. Senaca has done a good job last year where he threw 11 tds and only two picks. He got the experience and for Holmgren to keep him all this time he must be descent. Now a new coach comes in Jim Mora and Senaca is still the 2nd QB. So now to different coaches still he is #2 QB he must be good. One of his strong points is he is quick. He is hard to catch. He likes to tuck it and run it. If you look at his rating yes its not that great but it will geat better as he starts more games and gets more play time.If you would like to know his rating last year it was 87. When I watched Chicago they werent all that. Jay actually played a good bounce back game but trust me the travel will take a toll on him. Good luck to all Seattle backers and I hope Senaca has a big day.

LuckyGuy says:

09/25/09 06:30PM

Anurak says:

09/24/09 12:44AM

I thought ud be on the Lions for your sucka bet.
But GL

target_9 says:

09/24/09 08:23PM

GL this week!!!

mistermj says:

09/25/09 01:40AM

Nice call demapples...

You Idiots...you don't analyze the sucker bet...of course there are reasons not to take it...thats why its the sucker bet fools.

gdq106 says:

09/24/09 11:55AM

Almost all of what seattle does on offense revolves around Hasselbeck. Even w/ out urlacher Bears D still has plenty of talent(harris,briggs,brown,tillman), and can get in the backfield. Seattle might keep this one close, but unless they get a couple HUGE special teams plays, daBears pull this one out.

DeeNvesta says:

09/27/09 11:13AM

teams off a win over the defending superbowl champ are

6-25 ats on the road the next week

LBCWeasie says:

09/27/09 11:19AM

honestly, if haters are gonna come in here what is the fucking point?? to tout the fact demapples may miss 1/4 picks is a JOKE...he has HAMMERED these in the past and if u chumps think u can do better then start ur own thread and we will all come in and drop a deuce on it....and i dont mean ducats

Iw1nBets says:

09/24/09 12:54AM

You guys fail to see things with clarity and its fuckin crazy if you ask me. Hasslefuckinback isnt the only fuckin person hurt for the seahawks. They have 4 other starters out as well along with him. So 5 total ....

now do you like it as much

how bout dem fuckin apples

Iw1nBets says:

09/24/09 12:55AM

im still fuckin irate about this thread ... all this bs back and forth and so on and no 1 else... not even 1 fuckin person in 2 fuckin paged says anything bout the other key injuries for the seahawks. Blows my mind and makes me wonder the true credibility any 1 can have on this site

Iw1nBets says:

09/24/09 12:56AM

FadeOnly says:

09/27/09 02:55AM

Gold_Rush says:

09/24/09 12:10PM

I am with you - I like Buffalo to maybe even win

stay away from the over, another sucker bet

Seymour24 says:

09/26/09 10:50PM

key is can Seattle D stop the big plays that always kill them

HUNG_ says:

09/25/09 12:16AM

BOL

COBRA-KAI says:

09/25/09 02:56PM

Hilarious!

I actually like the CHI here, but still undecided on playing it. Wallace is awful, but its really tough to play in SEA. I just really like the comment. GL

jpfinne says:

09/23/09 08:34PM

I always enjoy your posts but t I'm backing da Bears this week - I think Pathetic Pitts is a bigger sucker bet after the losing to the DA Bears last week.

BOL

GunShard says:

09/24/09 05:46AM

Yea, I thought Lions and 49ers would be the sucker bet.

Hasselback is injured, let's see if that will help Chicago win or not.

Sky_Office says:

09/26/09 10:56PM

jtisc01 says:

09/23/09 08:50PM

eliminat0r85 says:

09/26/09 07:16PM

Yeah I think the sucker net this week should be on the lions. As washingtons poor play against stl is driving up their price.

Granted I'm taking the lions SU as I like the star matchups smith and johnson should have a good day. As long as Stafford has a decent game, but not betting anything high on it probably only like 25 something I could stand to lose if the matchup doesn't work out. If it was high or nothing I wouldn't touch it.

Look for this bears game to be a defensive game. Not picking a winner just the under. See it being a FG game as well just can't pick which side.

eliminat0r85 says:

09/27/09 04:32PM

well cutler is off to a great start. Nice pick demapples. I personally stayed away from this one.

oilfieldt says:

09/27/09 04:51PM

Looks good so far...

Flutiemaniac341 says:

09/27/09 06:07PM

lol rookies, football is never over till the final ticks.

jacksonville was the play for the sucker bet. you had a nice very LUCKY run 3 years ago ever since then like a lottery winner you have lost the last few years. theres no such thing as a sucker bet, vegas makes it money off naive ppl and greed. ppl cant be smart with their money whether their good at handicapping or not. no such thing as a sucker bet.

duma says:

09/27/09 04:41PM

congrats on the win dem apples

Seabags easy victory SU

bucknuts says:

09/28/09 02:46AM

I was on the Bears and im a Bears fan and the game wasnt pretty but it was a W...and i was on the TT too....easy money

Everybody hating on Cutler is crazy....so he demanded a trade...he was lied to about being traded and about the OFF coord....the guy had just made the probowl and lead the #2 or #3 rated offense[which was also 14th in rushing,so Cutler was doing WORK]....how was he even on the market?

You think the Bears are 2-1 with Orton?I dont...look at the stats Cutler having a better year with less talent....watch when he gets more in sync with some of these young guys...Chi fans finally have a QB that can move outside the pocket and throw and sometimes do both at the same time...WOW

If i saw this line again id hit it again...

opr2nist says:

09/28/09 12:01PM

Don't let this loss get to you Demapples, please keep doing your great write-ups, they are gold seen over a season.

dytide says:

09/28/09 02:21AM

I was on the seahawks.....I still think it was the right side.

sometimes it just don't hit.

I would make the play again.

ESCAPE_ says:

09/28/09 02:51AM

how can you think it is still the right side when it lost.....that doesn't make sense....the losing side is the wrong side.

HeadOverHeart says:

09/27/09 08:14PM

OY VEY

LBCWeasie says:

09/28/09 11:46AM

hey DUMA, way to jinx a real solid pick by giving Mare the devil fingers when he was ray finkle-ing those kicks jackass!

GunShard says:

09/28/09 04:44AM

I agree, I bet on the Bears because Hasselback is injured on the Seahawks, this giving the Bears the edge.

Just like last week, that the Saints defeated the Eagles. McNabb is injured and Vick cannot play until week 3. I won that bet as well.

The sucker bet of week 3 is on the Texans. Most people had bet on the Texans and lost.

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User:	demapples
Joined:	November 2002
Location:	Pennsylvania
Team:	Philadelphia Eagles
Occupation:	Arts/Entertainment

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