demapples's Blog

WEEK 5 SUCKER BET brought to you by Tootsie Pop!

By demapples | View all Posts
Posted Thursday, October 02, 2008 04:58 PM   76 comments
"Good afternoon everybody and welcome to Week 5's edition of the SUCKER BET brought to you by Tootsie Pop!  For those of you who are unfamiliar with the SUCKER BET,  each week I identify the games where the public seems to be heavily favoring one side.  Typically there are 3 or 4 choices each week.  From those games, I choose one unpopular pick as the SUCKER BET.  Last week was a winner for the SUCKER BET as the Chiefs took care of business.  That brings the season tally to 2-2 ATS.  Lots to choose from this week, all dogs as usual.  The SUCKER BET has had success in the past siding with home dogs within a divisional rival game.  I'm riding that train again this week as I'm taking the Texans +3 hosting the 1-2 Colts.  Over 78% of cappers on Wagerline/Covers are siding with the Colts this week.  The Colts 2-9 ATS in their last 11 vs. AFC South.  The Colts are 3-7 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.  Colts are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.  Colts are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss.  Colts are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. AFC.  Yes Matt Schaub has a better passer rating the Peyton Manning.  Schaub was 29-for-40 for 307 yards and three touchdowns as the Texans racked up a season-best 386 yards against the Jags last week.  Texans are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games.  Texans are 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.  This game is Houston's home opener.  Houston has won eight of its last 10 home games.  Colts are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Houston.  Houston has only had 9 offensive penalties this season (2nd best in NFL).  Colts are last in the league in TOP.  Colt's Bob Sanders is out due to knee surgery.  The Texans have had the 2nd hardest strength of schedule (WAS) so far this season.  I would certainly wait for or considering buying the hook.  There you have it; Texans +3.  Good luck to everyone this week and see you next week for WEEK 6 SUCKER BET brought to you by Tootsie Pop!"     
76 comments
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bobozoid says:
10/02/08 05:01PM
gl
BigNiner says:
10/02/08 05:19PM
I knew it!

 

I love it!

 

samuelsosa says:
10/02/08 05:25PM
For days I see the COLTS winning this one in a close one...by 1 point! Therefore, I agree TOOTSIE
JudgeSmails says:
10/02/08 05:27PM
samuelsosa says:
10/02/08 05:29PM
YOU definetly made a case for it tootsie.
WilliamMunny says:
10/02/08 05:44PM
love it ....Texas finaly find there way home for there home opener in a community ravaged by a hurricane...I would expect a huge effort by the Texans
dl36 says:
10/02/08 06:33PM
IND is a team that will alwyas have a public slant and they have not looked good this year...

 

I am not sure how coming off of the bye would be a factor for them...

 

Interesting note, there seem to be alot of "suckerbet" wanna bes, and I actually think contrarian or sharp angles should be talked about..

 

I guess it is just when people are stating that their suckerbet is taking a public team/line that has alot of action on the side they are betting on...

 

I always refer them to your weekly post to be educated...

 

 

miked7012 says:
10/02/08 07:38PM
I like it. I was on the fence for a while.  

Texans and the points!

 

Thanks demapples!

 

Cyrax says:
10/02/08 10:28PM
 Nice write-ups...GL demapples
Europa says:
10/02/08 10:30PM
On HOU already. Good luck, Demapples!
Timmyc says:
10/02/08 10:57PM

How about Detroit +3 vs. Chicago coming off big win over Philly.   Chicago is a huge sucker bet vs. AWFUL Detroit

Detroit +3     
grindstone says:
10/02/08 10:57PM
Let's do it again. Houston will come out fired up for this game. Hopefully they won't even need the points.
dcowboys says:
10/02/08 11:05PM
joelags says:
10/03/08 12:28AM
i thought you would pick new england as your sucket bet.  i do agree with you about the texans also.  i like em.  hopefully the line moves in our favor towards kickoff.
dnguyen59 says:
10/03/08 01:20AM
Fathomable says:
10/03/08 01:51AM
I liked the Texans as soon as the lines came out. Still waiting for the line to move though. Wonder why it hasnt yet. Nice write up tootsie.
bwright1016 says:
10/03/08 03:05AM
i like the way u put that. good luck apples.
bwright1016 says:
10/03/08 03:06AM
what u think about san fran + da skins on the warpath!  hey-ya hey-ya hey-ya!
NoFancyHandle says:
10/03/08 03:23AM
damn, I was hoping it was going to be det +3.

 

but I agree the colts -3 looks tooooo easy.

 

zzitoo75 says:
10/03/08 03:33AM
cant see the colts going 1-3...3 points aint shit, the colts are going to win, and if somehow they win by less then 3 points, then its jus bullshit..bottomline
BigUnit says:
10/03/08 07:50AM
It makes sense but I dont like betting against the colts coming off a bye week.  Too close for me to jump on.
JackedUp says:
10/03/08 09:08AM
GL
realintheville says:
10/03/08 10:04AM
D-Town says:
10/03/08 10:06AM
Good luck Demapples. 
phark says:
10/03/08 11:07AM
Sounds good to me, I will also say Arizona -1, is a sucker bet.
bulubulu says:
10/03/08 11:10AM
Love the over on this game as well.
LaDaddy says:
10/03/08 11:47AM
tru that...........gl
redskinsnut says:
10/03/08 11:53AM
This seems to be a pretty popular feature.  How long have you been doing this and what is your all time record on sucker bets?
Kev3434 says:
10/03/08 11:56AM
glyde69 says:
10/03/08 12:59PM
I'm gonna be on the other side, Demapples.  You had an ample amount of ATS numbers to show Indy is at a disadvantage, but I believe a lot of those losses ATS were in the days where Indy would be laying 13 to Tennessee and Houston on the road.  A bit misleading as this spread is only 3.

 

I'm not saying by any means that Indy ROUTS Houston.  I just think they control the game and this time if Houston scores a couple late meaningless TD's, it will not be a backdoor situation as the spread is 3 rather than 7, 11, or 14.

 

BigPimpin says:
10/05/08 01:53AM
Staying away from Houston. If they were getting 6+, I'd have to take a nibble but theyve played bad all year and burned money ats, in the process, save for facing a beaten up and desparate Jax squad. I can see Johnson, Walter, and maybe even Slaton having big games, but I just done feel Hou is built for this spot. Which is why Indy is The Tootsie Pop play of the week, I guess.

 

Houston will be fired up and yes they've scored a lot lately but theyre just not a good football team.

 

Ive watched Manning make a living on games like this with lines like this. Indy by 7.

 

Now, my sucker bet (like others) and I respect your thread is Detroit.

 

good Luck DemApples and thanks for the time you put into the tootsie pop play.

TRAIN69 says:
10/03/08 01:04PM
golden1 says:
10/05/08 12:06PM
Demapples: I am with you. Thanks for the pick. In the NFL the uglier the bet the better it is.GL
BigZman says:
10/05/08 12:28PM
rollmaestro says:
10/06/08 10:32PM
whatever, 2-3 now demapples, this one smelled fishy from the beginning, regardless of luck.

 

sorry man

rollmaestro says:
10/03/08 03:28PM
you're about to go 2-3 demapples... Manning has been in the filmroom for two weeks, lots of emotion on behalf of HOU for their season home opener, too much probably... Indy by 10+ no doubt about it.

 

GL anyway

rollmaestro says:
10/04/08 01:37PM
btw Indy is 1st against the pass and like last against the run, this matters imo...
actionjaxon22 says:
10/05/08 02:27AM
rod_steel says:
10/05/08 08:02AM
TomBrady12 says:
10/04/08 03:01AM
baskets4money says:
10/05/08 12:01PM
baskets4money says:
10/05/08 03:49PM
OH NO....THIS WAS SO EASY AND NOW IN JEOPARDY
baskets4money says:
10/05/08 04:00PM
WHAT A SHITTY ENDING TO A GREAT GAME GOING OUR WAY
parlayok says:
10/07/08 12:48AM
s.rosenfels snatched defeat from the jaws of victory.  gl nw.
ravenzone says:
10/05/08 12:55AM
Saw it coming..............GL
70A16733C7A94942AD21E5117D8ABCE3 says:
10/05/08 12:48PM
Houston will not even keep it close against the Colts today.

Colts 37-13

WATCHDOG says:
10/05/08 12:12PM
just locked it in at +4.5
jcpsaints says:
10/05/08 12:11PM
moosehunter says:
10/05/08 12:05PM
sportsladyd says:
10/04/08 10:14AM
alwaylose says:
10/05/08 12:24PM
HOU ML
gatornation says:
10/05/08 12:05PM
Indy will win and avoid a 1-4 start.  They got the week off and will be ready to play.  Houston is bad....just bad...  The only hope is if they can run the ball with Slayton.

I se Manning lighting up their secondary and this should not even be a close game.  Indy by 8-11 points.
michaelspga says:
10/05/08 12:54AM
nice cleveage!....i'm headed to Laos!!!!
DiscoD69 says:
10/03/08 06:06PM
loved it last week, no different this week
DiscoD69 says:
10/03/08 06:07PM
Home team is also 4-0 ATS last 4 meetings

 

BOL

khanhwin says:
10/05/08 12:14PM
rosenfels out!  i took houston for +3 should i buy out of the bet?
lrempel says:
10/05/08 10:48AM

 

 You just joined this year and you say this his first year lol. Very excellent tracfk record dating back 4 or 5 years now. I don't know for sure but all years records to the + side. I do like this one. Hou is 4-1 ats vs @ hm last 5 games. I am loving the over in this one. last 6 vs all over. Indy after a bye are 5-1 to the over. Last year it did not. Hou giving up avg 30 pts. 30-27 gm which ever way it goes. 8 pts over the total. I think that is the play for me on this one. over 49

mikeirvin says:
10/05/08 10:24AM
Europa says:
10/05/08 04:08PM
F*ck Rosenfels, single handed this game away.  
mcthatch37 says:
10/05/08 04:27PM
HOU +4.5 WINNER!

UNDERdogin says:
10/05/08 12:43PM
sage pick appleman  

 

in case you didn't know you can create space between your sentences by using the enter button

 

give it a try, it will make it alot easier to read

VGPOP says:
10/05/08 03:42PM
xxphamxx says:
10/05/08 03:11AM
i think indy will not just cover....it will be a blowout!!
tailMaster says:
10/05/08 04:26PM

 

 

 

 

TrojanStealth says:
10/05/08 06:16AM

Definitely not his 1st year.  Great success in the past.

misterfuji says:
10/05/08 12:36AM
redskinsnut says:
10/03/08 09:48PM
Demapples-  can you please provide an all time record on these "sucker bets?"  
redskinsnut says:
10/05/08 07:51AM
Ya, thought it was weird that this would have such a following for being his first year.  Maybe he doesn't post his record but is very good, kind of like Rush?
redskinsnut says:
10/05/08 04:14PM
That was brutal...win goes to the squares.
redskinsnut says:
10/05/08 12:32PM
Schaub will not start against IndySunday 10/5, 11:11 AM CT
According to ESPN's Jim Mortensen, quarterback Matt Schaub is sick and will not start this week against Indianapolis. 

Our View: Sage Rosenfels will take his place in the starting lineup. Schaub is still active, but has a stomach virus.
Lucky117 says:
10/05/08 12:46PM
Gee_Gee says:
10/03/08 02:49PM
good poins by both both sides, but for those of u who are backing the texans i think its better to hold off until sunday... i see this line continuing to climb in favour of the the colts... if this line gets up to 4.. which i think it has a chance to, then ill make a play on the texans...   
808Tunda says:
10/05/08 02:46AM
hes 2-2 this is his first year
FrumDaYaY says:
10/03/08 08:35PM
Love your picks, but Sucker bet or not this weekend I think the Colts will get it done. Chicago seems like a bigger Sucker Bet this weekend to me.
handsomePete says:
10/05/08 12:51PM
Matt Jones over Hines Ward for receptions. 

Tenn -1 Bal 33.5
Ten -1 Under
The only Ten I see this week if you can get the line at 1, even at 3 I like it just not as much.
5 stars

Sea +7 NYG 43.5
Sea + 7
This could haunt me but I think without Burress as a long down option, and Brandon Jacob's Chlamydia (rumored) the G-men will not cover.
3 Stars

Was +6 Phil 42
Phil - 6
Westbrook

either contributes or is a decoy opening up the Offense, either way the

Redskins are not world beaters two weeks in a row. Plus Jason Campbell

will get wrecked this week, Jason Taylor and Sean Springs out, and

Washington is plain scared in Philadelphia.
3 Stars

SD -6.5 Mia 44.5
SD -6.5 Over
Every

week that passes we move closer to the conversation,"was it Ronnie

Brown or Ricky Williams who had 6 touchdowns against New England?" San

Diego is a real NFL team , Miami is a team that will score a touch down in the fourth quarter to cover the over with the game already decided.
4 Stars

Chi -3.5 Det 45.5
Det +3.5
Looking for a big Calvin Johnson week against an over-rated Chi D. Devon Hestor will not be a factor, and the league is starting to forget about Roy Williams (mistake). This is the game that makes you think Kitna

is much better than he is and ruins your ability to bet the Lions for

the rest of the year. Here it is, get on the "I told you so" train

early, it’s leaving the station.
5 Stars

ATL +3.5 GB 40.5
GB -3.5
Rogers will keep it close but the Packers will win by 5.
2 Stars

IND -3 Hou 48
Hou +3 UNDER
I

like this game so much that I think God is going to hand it to INDY,

stay away, I fell in love with this pick early in the week and cannot

let it go. Take the Under as part of a Parlay with Tenn if you must but

I gotta say stay away from this one, even though I will be betting Hou heavy.
3 Stars

KC +9.5 CAR 38.5
CAR - 9.5
KC sucks and CAR is not Denver when it comes to D.
2 Stars

TB +3 Den 46.5
OVER
Two words "breakout performance", Brian Griese.

Three words Denver at home. Four words Denver Defense Disappoints Dad.

I can see it either way and I like the over better than any team. In a

pinch always take Denver at home, but you didn't hear me say that.
2 Stars

BUF +1 ARI 44.5
BUFF -5 (Power Play)
Secret stat of the year, Buffalo on grass is like Boitano on ice, beautiful. Why is the line 1? I tease this one down to 5 and build up the war chest. Here it is kids college tuition for free, from me, to you.
5 Stars (Power Play)

NE -3 SF 41
SF +3 or (+155 straight)
Out on a limb here, but I would take the 49ers straight for +155 with a gun to my head.
2 Stars

CIN +16 DAL 44
Suckers bet this game.
0 Stars

Pit +4.5 Jax 36
Jax -4.5 Under
Parlay this one.
4 Stars

Min +3 NO 46.5
Min +3
This is the game in prime-time that A Peterson becomes the player that every 12 year old calls in the backyard for the next 5 years.
4 Stars


Sundayofwinners says:
10/05/08 12:31PM
Den v Tampa Bay

Play under 46.5  3 units

Arizona v buff 

Play Ari -1  4 units

Indy v Hou 

Play Indy -3  3 units

Chi v Det

Play over 45.5  4 units
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