demapples's Blog

WEEK 4's SUCKER BET brought to you by Tootsie Pop!

By demapples | View all Posts
Posted Friday, October 02, 2009 09:10 AM   48 comments
"Good morning everyone and welcome to Week 4's edition of the SUCKER BET, as always brought to you by the kind folks at Tootsie Pop!  For those of you who are unfamiliar with the SUCKER BET, each week I identify the games where the public seems to be heavily favoring one side.  Typically there are 3 or 4 choices each week.  From those games, I choose one unpopular pick as the SUCKER BET.  Last week was another nail biter as the Seahawks lost the cover on a game-ending touchdown.  This season all three of the SUCKER BETS looked like strong plays until the closing seconds of the game.  However, our season record stands at 1-2 ATS.  This week I'll take the Jaguars +3 hosting the Titans.  This line opened as a pick'em and the public began heavily supporting the winless Titans driving the lineup to a favorable position for cappers leaning towards the Jags.  In the past, home dogs in a divisional rivialry have faired well for the SUCKER BET.  Overall, I think there are a lot of people supporting the "Titans have to win one here soon" philosphy.  That's not a strong football foundation to wager money on.  What is strong is the fact that the Jaguars have the better rated QB.  The Jaguars are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as a home underdog of 0.5-3.0 and they are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 games as a home underdog.  Conversely, the Titans are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. AFC teams, 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games in Week 4, and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite.  An already very weak Titans defense is dinged up and I think Mike Sims-Walker could have a big game. The Jags have some momentum coming off a divisonal win against Houston last week.  I'm not a big fan at comparing 2 teams (TEN & JAX) vs. how they performed against the same opponent (HOU), but the Jags went into Houston and beat them, holding them to 24 points.  Whereas the Titans hosted the Texans and lost, giving up 31 points.  Really these 2 teams are statiscally very close and have similar strengths and weaknesses.  There you have it, Jags plus a field goal is this week's SUCKER BET brought to you by Tootsie Pop.  Good luck everyone and have a great weekend!  See you next week for WEEK 5's SUCKER BET brought to you by Tootsie Pop!"
Report Abuse
 
48 comments
comment Post A Comment
yardquags77 says:
10/02/09 09:27AM
Initially I was on the other side of this game, but the more I think about it, the more I think the Jags can control the clock and put some points on the board.
I saw another post commenting on the Titans ball hawking last year, being in the top 3 of the turnover margin.  That led them to getting the W in many close games.  This year they have not been getting the bounces and losing those games.  Jacksonville is a team that will take care of the ball - and hopefully take this matchup!
I love getting the points at home in this matchup - and locked in 3.5 earlier this week-

Love the pick - BOL apples! 
WussieMan says:
10/02/09 09:56AM
Jags
redskinsnut says:
10/02/09 10:43AM
This one makes me nervous.  Lot of books charging extra vig for that +3.  Seems like they want to keep that number at 3 and you to take the Jags.  
WilliamMunny says:
10/02/09 11:13AM
This is a bet i can sink my teeth into. it just boggles the mind that Tenn has not won a game but that cant make up for the fact that they just arent playing very well especially the D
frogster says:
10/02/09 11:21AM
Excellent work demapples glad to see your back.GL
Biscuit says:
10/02/09 01:02PM
For the first time this year, I'm on the Titans.   They're a veteran team desperately needing a win, playing a team that isn't quite as good as they are.

Titans by 10 over Jags

GL demapples
bucknuts says:
10/02/09 01:18PM
Dont like it but GL
MoneyShot says:
10/02/09 01:19PM
Good luck on your week 4, but im on the Titans.

 

PrimeTimeBoys says:
10/02/09 01:51PM
I love the Titans this week! 
TampaTony says:
10/02/09 02:03PM
Titans 0-4

 

NOT GONNA Happen

 

Then again, I said that last week!

 

BOL

Jimmag says:
10/02/09 02:07PM
DrCizZee says:
10/02/09 02:21PM
My take on the Jags this year is that they are not a terrible team, but they are nowhere near as good as the Titans.  True, the Titans are banged up, but lost one game they shouldn't have at home against the Texans.  Besides that they lost a nail biter OT game at Pitt to open the year with a healthy Polamalu and a tough game at the Meadowlands against the Jets which they would have won if there punt returner wasn't retarted.

Jacksonville can't come close to selling out that stadium so playing on the road here compared to Pitt and NYJ is gonna be a cakewalk.  Titans are a veteran team that know they need to win and when you say its a bad defense already thats banged up, thats just false.  This is a good defense, especially against the run, going against a team with one playmaker, MJD, the running back.  Take the Titans and enjoy your winnings.
mrbelvidere2010 says:
10/02/09 02:54PM
thats 1-3 ats now
Boise_Brian says:
10/02/09 02:55PM
Last week I pointed out that the JAGS looked like the "sucker bet." This week it smells a lil fishy to me, Yes the titans have loss all 3 games, but because of turnovers and sloppy play, (which are part of the game) has shot them in the foot.  If they can clean up their act, they have the ability to win by DD. (just my opinion)  

This week the JETS look too inviting, 3-0... defense has been stout... Sanchize has been managing games for them... they are catching 7 pts... everything is screaming take JETS...

My moolah will be on the Saints

GL to all

BB
Boise_Brian says:
10/02/09 03:00PM
^^^^^oops, HOU was sucker bet, JAX was the play^^^^^
Bruuuuce78 says:
10/02/09 03:18PM
Titans are alot better than their record and stats.  Jags are a mess.  QB and coach are fighting over a radio show.........hilarious.  Sucker bets are tough, they backfire alot.............

 

dmacnesa says:
10/02/09 03:35PM
So its a toss up  - tails says its the Jags thanks for the insight and BOL
redskinsnut says:
10/02/09 04:06PM
VegasMaxx says:
10/02/09 05:50PM
How is it not Denver+3?  What an upset.
TRAIN69 says:
10/02/09 06:12PM
Tootsie...you are off this year in your sucker bet logic.....

 

If anything, the Jags at home catching a fg form an 0-3 teamis the sucker bet....

 

There are 2 sucker bets this week.....

 

#1 ...... cincy -5 @ Cleve ......the Bungles just beat the world champions and the Browns are switching qb and suck....but line is only 5 with 90% on cincy....hmmmm  Cincy 21 Clev 20

#2) ....pitt -6.5..... SD is 2-1 and Rivers has them playing well....Pitt is struggleing on defense w/o Polomolu and Parker is not 100%...yet the line is 6.5 and people are taking the Chargers at a 70% clip.....hmmmm  Pitt 31 SD 14

 

jpfinne says:
10/02/09 10:14PM
Took Titians @ -3 +100 - as they will have their first win this week by 7
Booshasta says:
10/03/09 07:44AM

train I agree with you 100%. Tennesse is not a sucker bet. With tennessee losing because of the returner Mouton from hawaii.Those two fumbles costed them to TD's. You are rigth on here.

Booshasta says:
10/03/09 07:46AM
Hey train I will not play the steelers just because I have that bad taste in my mouth from last season when the refs called a review and then changed the score on polamalu's td in the last 5 seconds
UpTheAnte says:
10/03/09 08:04AM
I couldn't agree more demapples.  I'm on the JAGS +3.5 (got that line early).

 

I enjoy how people say "the Titans are the best 0-3 team in the NFL".  I don't really know what that means.  They played strong against the Steelers (who seem to be struggling a bit) but other than that, they haven't shown much.  Now the JAGS aren't anything to brag about either - but a home dog in this situation doesn't sound right.  TEN might win, but the value play has got to be JAX.

UpTheAnte says:
10/03/09 08:46PM

I didn't think I would have to defend myself.  I didn't get JAX +3.5 at the opening, I got that line on 9/29/09 at 11:41 PM at BetUS.  I meant I got that spread earlier - meaning a few days ago.  I wasn't lying, just misunderstood.  Sorry.  Still love the pick!

Zucchero says:
10/03/09 08:56PM
on it
davpardan says:
10/03/09 10:15PM
jags is a winner
BigZman says:
10/04/09 10:52AM
GL Demapples!
BigZman says:
10/04/09 04:02PM
dl36 says:
10/04/09 02:05AM
Suckerbet angle last year did not do well in the NFL and I do not think that in general it is doing well this year...

Other suckerbet logic plays...

KC +10, SEA +10, CLE +6

GL this week demapples...
duma says:
10/04/09 02:05PM
congrats on the SU win.  easy money Jax !
ICAPSports says:
10/04/09 02:12PM
my apologies....great pick, how dare I question the great demapples
ICAPSports says:
10/03/09 11:49PM
sad to say, I am utterly convinced after this selection, that the sucker bet is going to have its 1st losing season...but BOL
BigEastExpert says:
10/04/09 02:47PM
PASA818 says:
10/04/09 01:03PM
Giants should be a sucker this week.


webba says:
10/04/09 09:49AM
I was thinking the Broncos would be your play, but GL with Jax Demapples.
dytide says:
10/04/09 10:16PM

 

madshooter72 says:
10/04/09 08:26AM
gl today 
mac1403 says:
10/04/09 09:35PM
Very nice once again. look forward to your TOOT's pic every week, keep it up
kittsd says:
10/04/09 08:28AM
GL
heretic says:
10/04/09 09:42PM


i'd say primetime peyton isn't worth betting against. and -4 makes many teams pack it in and start moping
pitbullowner says:
10/04/09 08:54AM
smatt721 says:
10/04/09 03:08PM
Nice call Demapples!!!!

 

Titan fans its OVER!!!

mrbelvidere2010 says:
10/04/09 02:36PM
I was wrong ... Good call brother
bkg1010 says:
10/04/09 09:43AM
I'll stick with the home dog +3 here.  Tenn will win, will it be this week is the question.      GLTA

Titans 24
Jag 23

YES, its this week !! 

DOVJAK says:
10/04/09 10:54AM
tenn
GunShard says:
10/04/09 09:33PM
Well predicted Demapples.

 

Titans is on a losing streak, Is it fair to bet against the Titans next week when they are going against the Colts?

GunShard says:
10/03/09 11:29PM
You were wrong about last week. But I believe the Jags are the Dark Horse this year, they did beat the Colts ATS in Week 1.
Add your response:
Please note that the blogger has the option of reviewing all comments before they are displayed to the public. Your comment may not be published immediately.
 

Profile

User: demapples
Joined: November 2002
Location: Pennsylvania
Team: Philadelphia Eagles
Occupation: Arts/Entertainment

Recent Posts

Archive

open2011
open2009
open2008

Categories

Advertisement