demapples's Blog

WEEK 6 SUCKER BET brought to you by Tootsie Pop!

By demapples | View all Posts
Posted Thursday, October 09, 2008 08:41 AM   56 comments
"Good morning everybody and welcome to Week 6's edition of the SUCKER BET brought to you by Tootsie Pop!  For those of you who are unfamiliar with the SUCKER BET,  each week I identify the games where the public seems to be heavily favoring one side.  Typically there are 3 or 4 choices each week.  From those games, I choose one unpopular pick as the SUCKER BET.  Last week was a loser for the SUCKER BET as the Texans, more specifically Sage Ronsenfels, crumbled with minutes left in the game.  That brings the season tally to 2-3 ATS.  This week I like the Cardinals +5 hosting the Cowboys.  The Cardinals have looked strong all year, especially last week as the crushed the Bills 41-17 as the won the turnover battle 4-0.  Boldin is out and that hurts, but they have plenty of wideouts in ARI.  With Boldin out, rookie cappers are more hesitant to back ARI, thus keeping our number well above a FG.  The Cowboys' last three wins -- all against teams currently with losing records -- have been by an average of just 8.0 points.  Cowboys are 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.  Cowboys are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  Cowboys are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss.  Cowboys are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 vs. NFC.  Cowboys are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games on grass.  Cowboys are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. win.  Cardinals are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.  Cardinals are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on grass.  Cardinals are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.  Jeff Saragin's Ratings of USA Today actually has the Cardinals ranked higher than the Cowboys.  Only the Texans and Lions has a worse TO Ratio than the Cowboys.  Both the offensive statistics for these teams are very impressive.  That beings said the Cardinals have had a harder schedule to this point (6th hardest in the NFL: DAL 20).  I'd be careful jumping all over the over in the this game as well.  As bad as the Cowboys secondary has been, Warner can't hold on to the ball if someone in the stands sneezes.  Romo throws picks like Dr. Z...too many.  For those who will statistically analyze this game, it's incredible how close the teams are; team offense, team defense, and individuals.  I'll take the dog nobody wants.  There you have it, Cardinals +5.  Good luck to everyone and see you next week for WEEK 7 SUCKER BET brought to you by Tootsie Pop!" 
56 comments
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BlueBallsDeep says:
10/09/08 08:42AM
Im not surree

Dallas can put some pressure on Warner and cause him to throw nerfs
i am on dallas side as of now

BOL
KOAJ says:
10/09/08 08:47AM
love the pick apples


BlueBallsDeep says:
10/09/08 08:50AM
what happened when the cards played the Jets?
KOAJ says:
10/09/08 09:07AM


west to east at 1pm...cards are awful on the east coast going back 10-15 years

they had 5 turnovers in the first half
redskinsnut says:
10/09/08 09:25AM
sportsladyd says:
10/09/08 09:27AM
GL demapples...loving the pick!
Rickerbockers says:
10/09/08 09:36AM
You're going to fall to 2-4 ATS after this week.

 

Just a horrible play.  And not a sucker bet at all, at least by my definition.  Wouldn't a Sucker Bet be a Spread that was set against the norm????  For example, Dallas <1> @ Arizona.  The line S/B Dallas <3> and is inflated a little . . . . I have some serious issues with people leading other people the wrong way on purpose.  I thought something was up.  I think I've sniffed out 2 posters (Petie maybe).

TampaTony says:
10/09/08 09:49AM
I dont know about ARZ.
the shambler says:
10/09/08 09:57AM

That Cards game had nothing to do with West coast ot East coast.

The Cards stayed on the east coast all week to avoid any travel issues.

The real problem that week was Warner and company had been issued a new style of glove which made it very difficult to grip the ball,hence all of those turnovers.Even before the game you could see Warner having problems in practice. 

All week after that game I heard how the Bills wer going to have a field day with T/o's because they had a better Defense than the Jets.Ha! Ha! Ha! Zona was my best bet against the Bills.

Even though Dallas has an Offense that is so hyped (they are good but overrated due to Romo's inaccuracy). The Dallas secondary will have a tough time containing the Cards attack. Pacman Jones is out,Terence Newman is out,Roy williams is out.

Hmmm...love the play Demapples!!!

rollmaestro says:
10/09/08 10:56AM
yeah, this one may come down to personnel, having Boldin out sucks for AZ but Dallas is missing like 3/4 of their starting secondary, and that trumps everything imo, AZ should keep this close regardless, Dallas just isn't as good as advertised/hyped... I went against you last week demapples but I like it this week, 5 looks like a little too much.

redskinsnut says:
10/09/08 12:12PM
Bet the Cards at home, fade them on the road.
the shambler says:
10/09/08 12:50PM

 

Throw in S.F as well as Seatlle for that angle.

Rickerbockers says:
10/09/08 02:02PM

Throw in S.F as well as Seatlle for that angle.   

Didn't SF go into Seattle and not only COVER but WIN outright?  Didn't SF just lose and not cover at home last week?

 

 

LuvParlays says:
10/09/08 03:21PM
I like the Cards at home as well. Was thinking the Over, but may stay away from that now.
BigNiner says:
10/09/08 05:52PM

 

Rookie

Rickerbockers says:
10/09/08 06:12PM

 

I'm a rookie A LOT!!!!   

At least I don't make my predictions by players featured on the cover of magazines.  You're a Pro at picking these games! 

CalBear says:
10/10/08 03:03PM

The over is going to be my best bet this weekend.  Both offenses are going to be too much for each other's defenses to handle.  I'm staying away from a side in this game as I won't be surprised if the Cards win or if Dallas blows them out.  If I had to choose it would be Dallas, but I'm sticking to the over.

grindstone says:
10/10/08 04:59PM

Still can't believe the total distruction of houston last week in the 4 th quarter. You should of had that one

Love the play this week, too many distractions for Dallas feels like the playoffs are already here for them.

LETS GO CARDS

BurningPlanet26 says:
10/10/08 05:29PM
I do not think this is a sucker bet at all. Arizona is tough at home and Dallas has struggled against bad teams as of late. The line is set correctly. That said, I am betting Dallas for a unit, the over for a unit and alternate lines for each for half a unit.

 

I think Arizona gets blown out and this game is very high scoring. Figure I will go 1-1 at worst and then I profit on the alt line.

Cyrax says:
10/10/08 09:16PM
GL  Demapples... looks like a good play
DiscoD69 says:
10/10/08 09:37PM
BigZman says:
10/10/08 10:48PM
I like AZ also, Demapples. Dallas has some distractions with Pacman and TO 

GLTA 
YoungOne says:
10/10/08 10:54PM


82% of public on dallas = sucker play
Erik48 says:
10/10/08 11:35PM
Damn apples - I nearly always like your sucker bet but this week I'm looking for DAL to win their third road game of the season by double digits, just as they beat GB by 11 and CLE by 18.

AZ is a cut-above those two but I'm not giving them as much credit, as others are, for beating SF, MIA and the BILLS (who simply committed 4 turnovers and lost their 10th straight pre-bye week game).

From Wks 5-12, I also like to bet 'against' teams that score 28+ points in two consecutive games (especially if they're at home) and AZ falls into that system for me. Last week, It went 2-0 by going against SEA and NO. This week, AZ and NYJ are 'go against' teams so we'll see.    GL

BigUnit says:
10/11/08 09:59AM
I was looking at the cards too but Im not sure about what is in Kurt Warners head, wasnt he talking about retiring because of that hit on Boldin he feels responsible for?
MEGALOCKS says:
10/11/08 10:25AM
BigPimpin says:
10/12/08 02:20AM

Hey DemApples:

 

I believe fade Dallas week was 2 weeks ago vs (Wash) & last week (Cincy).

Good Luck

 

oilfieldt says:
10/12/08 10:52AM
Arizona=
oilfieldt says:
10/13/08 09:38AM
I was all over the Cards, the zebra's tried to change the outcome with a couple of bad calls but the football gods prevailed.
vetdrm says:
10/12/08 07:59PM
Who needs the points when you got demapples
flavavision says:
10/12/08 07:46PM
HELL YEAH!!!!!!
Wizerguy says:
10/12/08 08:10PM

Knew you had this one

 

NICE JOB!!!!!!!!!!!

Wizerguy says:
10/12/08 10:35AM

Arizona is night and day Home and away.

Wizerguy says:
10/12/08 10:37AM

been doing it for a while

baskets4money says:
10/12/08 07:56PM
cowboys
bubba says:
10/12/08 09:28PM
Dilemma says:
10/12/08 07:55PM
charlielo55 says:
10/12/08 09:50AM
No brainer, Demapples, tempted to take the moneyline, as well, can just see the Dallas papers Monday morning, asking for Wade's head on a stick and Pacman's ouster......there's trouble brewing in the Big D, that's for sure......
Dblduce5178 says:
10/12/08 01:58AM
Zona+5
Winn says:
10/12/08 09:57AM
TAKE  THE JETS ..........
redsoxwin says:
10/13/08 03:39AM
Good Stuff Demapples. 
mrjiggyfly says:
10/12/08 05:20PM
I didn't realize you been back all season that sucks for me good luck the rest of the way go cardinals
mrjiggyfly says:
10/12/08 11:04AM
nice to see ya back
wardy says:
10/12/08 09:58AM
Gil Brant of Sirius just picked the Cards as his upset special
jimboChicago says:
10/12/08 01:52AM
Cowboys (4-1) @ Cardinals (3-2)-- Arizona is 2-0 at home, scoring 72 points in routing Bills/Dolphins (scored nine TDs on 17 drives). Boldin being out (sinus surgery) hurts here, but Warner was 33-42/250 vs Bills, and Cowboys' DB Newman is out here. Dallas is 2-0 on road, winning 28-10 in Cleveland, 27-16 at Lambeau- they're giving up 13 ppg at home, 28.3 at home- go figure. Dallas won last three series games by 17+ pts, but lost four of last five visits to desert. Arizona's turnover ratios have been +5/0/+4 in its wins, -2/-6 in its losses. Cowboys have forced just four takeaways in five games (-4 turnover ratio).   (I got this from a friend Vic)

Ricker...understand your point...but no one should just tail without doing there own research...so share the insight & your pick then you decide who you decide to bet...GL fellas!

 

oshawatps says:
10/12/08 08:19PM
Great pick!
oshawatps says:
10/12/08 08:20PM
Great pick.
Blkshrt says:
10/12/08 01:18AM
tailMaster says:
10/12/08 07:47PM
Gennaro53 says:
10/12/08 10:56AM
Who has this cardinals team that makes dallas a sucker bet today?
mike214 says:
10/12/08 10:42AM
tough call apples gl
Jim_Tressel says:
10/12/08 10:05AM






San Fran certainly showed up last week.
Ace77 says:
10/12/08 07:51PM
dtv001 says:
10/12/08 01:22AM
Sf +4.5 my friend.  Dallas will cover
SuicideKings says:
10/12/08 10:18AM
Love the pick apples! BOL
SuicideKings says:
10/12/08 09:09PM
Ka-Ching!

Thanks apples

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