demapples's Blog

WEEK 8's SUCKER BET brought to you by Tootsie Pop!

By demapples | View all Posts
Posted Friday, October 30, 2009 01:43 PM   25 comments
""Good afternoon everyone and welcome to Week 8's edition of the SUCKER BET, as always brought to you by the kind folks at Tootsie Pop!  For those of you who are unfamiliar with the SUCKER BET, each week I identify the games where the public seems to be heavily favoring one side.  Typically there are 3 or 4 choices each week.  From those games, I choose one unpopular pick as the SUCKER BET.  Last week was tough loss for the SUCKER BET as I was almost guilty of counting my chickens before they hatched.  The Dolphins looked like yet another outright win for the SUCKER BET, but ended up on the wrong side bringing our season tally to 3-4 ATS.  This week I like the Eagles +1 hosting the New York Giants.  The Eagles are playing well at home, which they will need to do because the Giants have won the last 4 ATS in Philly.  These teams are not unlike eachother as they their offenses and defenses score and give up a relatively similar amount of points.  They have balanced offenses and are well coached.  The big difference I see is Turnover Differential as the Eagles are the leaders in the NFL at +11, thanks in large part to their 12 INTs this season.  In their last 13 games coming off a division game, the Eagles are 11-2 ATS.  Eli is a streaking QB and the Eagles are lucky that he isn't flying high right now.  Over the past 2 weeks he has 2 TD passes and 4 INT.  Asante Samuel is hoping he can grab a pick this week as the Eagles are 22-2 SU in games when he has an interception.  I'm not sure about the status of Brian Westbrook, but I'm going to assume he will not be in the lineup this week, which means LeSean (Shady) McCoy will be the main ball carrier for the Eagles.  The underdog is 9-0 ATS in their last 9 meetings.  The line opened with the Eagles being favored by two points.  Quick money came in on the Giants and Vegas quickly obliged moving the line the other way.  Take this for what it's worth from Whatifsports.com, "The tight race in the NFC East becomes just a smidgen clearer as front-runners New York and Philadelphia square off in the City of Brotherly Love. The home-standing Eagles, who struggled the past two weeks with Washington and Oakland, score a major victory 58.5% of the time and by a score of 24-19."  The Philly crowd will be excited as they have a long sports day to support their teams with the Phillies hosting the Yankees across the street 4 hours after the Eagles game ends.  The Eagles spanked the Giants last year in the playoffs and New York has revenge in thier eyes as they try to snap their 2-game losing streak with the winner taking the lead in the division.  Sounds like a lot of pressure to me.  Give me the home team getting a point.  Good luck to everyone this week and see you next week for WEEK 9's SUCKER BET brought to you by Tootsie Pop!"
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The-dank-one says:
10/30/09 02:06PM

New York-Philadelphia games almost always come down to 1 possession. Despite not getting a single sack on Philadelphia last year in 3 games, New York still kept every game close including a road win.

No Dawkins means a sigh of relief for Manning and the Philadelphia offensive line situation has the New York defensive line salivating.

Remember the last time Eagles lined up Winston Justice against the Giants? "On the night, New York's defense sacked QB Donovan McNabb 12 times (tying an NFL record), with half of those sacks coming from DE Osi Umenyiora. Also, DE Michael Strahan had one sack in the game to surpass Lawrence Taylor as the Giants' All-Time Sack Leader (Taylor was present at the game)."

Splooge says:
10/30/09 05:31PM
Well I have road doggie getting 1 looking to go a solid 10-0 as dogs in series.  Phillies will be down 2-1 in series looking to somehow win game 4 vs CC w/ out using their ace in Lee sounds like an extremely tall order.  I do see them winning game 5 and it getting back to NY but unless they upset in game 3 tomorrow they are up against it not that Philly cares it's a football town regardless. Giants large especially w/ out westbrrok
Gold_Rush says:
10/30/09 06:03PM
I wonder how much of a sucker bet this is

Giants are good 
Eagles are good

its a toss up either way

It is not like the world loves the Eagles here
Gold_Rush says:
10/30/09 06:05PM
sorry tootsie 

I meant to say its not like the world loves the Giants here
jesron1269 says:
10/30/09 06:06PM
I think PHI wins this week too.  NYG have looked as bad as I thought they were going to be at the start of the season.  I predicted PHI would win the division, WASH come in second (not looking good here) and NYG would come in third.

I also predicted that MIN and GB would each make the playoffs but not sure which would win the division.  Both looking good so far.
Bruuuuce78 says:
10/30/09 06:10PM
I dont agree with this sucker bet..........The line has already swung 4 points.........doesn't sound like Vegas is suckering anyone in............ Houston is the sucker bet this week......Bills gonna beat that ass
krik913 says:
10/30/09 07:08PM
westbrook is out still cant practice,still has all the symptoms of the concussion,once again mcnabb is throwing into the ground again,if you think westbrook is not out,you shouldnt be wagering on this game,i took the giants +3,as soon as i saw it,now if kolb was qb,then ill take the birds,mcnabb is running out of excuses,he is over-rated,and if the eagles would of had any passing qbs in his place during those years they would of won superbowl.G-MEN WITH EASE,AS ELI STAYS PERFECT AT LINCOLN FINANCIAL!
SharpShooter8 says:
10/30/09 08:10PM
Johnnypicks says:
10/30/09 08:50PM

good write apples....kinda true... although...I think I'll lay off this one..inter division games this early are so unpredictable. IMHO --jp-

kinda like the ny football giants to re-assert themselves tho.

icover4u says:
10/30/09 10:53PM
Chicago is the suckers bet this week folks, this game is gonna make your asshole pucker up to the size of a decimal point, i think cleveland covers.
dytide says:
10/30/09 11:30PM

I thought for sure Arizona would be the sucker bet. ..(Carolina would be the play)

Big win as dog on Sunday Night TV and now a big favorite against a Carolina team who just lost at home to the Bills.

(but I understand your reasoning in regards to the line movement.)

GunShard says:
10/31/09 01:40AM
Even though your previous sucker bets against the Saints and Colts were incorrect. I believe this Eagles bet is spot on. The Giants get too much hype.
mrjiggyfly says:
10/31/09 01:48AM
but apples you are an eagle fans so isn't that kinda biased pick I wish it was a different game goodluck
UpTheAnte says:
10/31/09 04:03AM

This is almost two close of a game to actually be called SUCKER BET - even though the public seems to be siding on NYG.  They are both evenly matched and at the top of their division.  I think two better games that qualify for this criteria would be HOU @ BUF or CAR @ ARI.  I personally don't think CAR has a chance but BUF is definately a live dog in my opinion.  CAR (who isn't getting any kind of love, for good reason) might be the real SUCKER BET this week.

UpTheAnte says:
10/31/09 04:04AM
too, not two...it's early...
SonicBlue says:
10/31/09 05:09AM
Steering clear of that game either way but I do believe it's the book getting suckered this week by the team that's been punking them since their Superbowl win up until 2 weeks ago. 

Either way, thanks for posting because I always look forward to it.


dl36 says:
10/31/09 05:53AM
MIA was the correct play last week...

I thought you be on BUF or CAR...
redskinsnut says:
10/31/09 09:03AM
squareashell says:
11/01/09 12:10AM
Eagles is certainly the sucker bet here.

They are an overrated team because they make big plays that look good on the highlight reels, but passing 80% isn't going to work on the Giants.

The Giants won the last two regular season games which Jacobs dominated. The last game they lost I believe Jacobs was out. Philadelphia tends to win when Westbrook has great games. But he might not even be in the game.

The Eagles lost to the raiders then looked pretty bad against the Redskins, who gave them the game despite the Eagle's best efforts to keep it close. McNabb continues to throw at receiver's feet and Reid does nothing but call deep passes.

Brian Dawkins has clearly been a huge loss to the Eagles.

You mention that Eagles are better at turnovers. Well it certainly helps to have Delhomme throwing at you. Teams can't rely on turnovers in order to win, because no team can consistently get them, and you usually need some help from the other team - like playing the Redskins offense, who I think would have fumbled without an opponent.

I am a statistical person by nature, but you are citing statistics from what's really different teams. Furthermore, the whole concept of a sucker bet is just trying way too hard to look like a genius and fade the public, instead of looking for value. I assure you, even if Giants are the slightly better pick here, there is no value in this bet because these games are always close and you have to factor in the juice.

BOL anyway.

mrjiggyfly says:
11/02/09 11:54AM
great pick I was the sucker this week ................can't wait to see your pick next week
jesron1269 says:
11/02/09 12:25PM
Ha ha ha... I am such an idiot sometimes.  I was all over PHI all week long but after seeing the line movement from NYG +3 to NYG -2 by kickoff and I had NYG +3 through my book I figured well I guess I will go with the line movement.  Idiot, idiot, idiot!  I should have just stayed off the game.  DAMN.  Nice all and I love reading your threads.
webba says:
11/02/09 12:53PM
Great call again Dem....
saintsfan504 says:
11/02/09 12:58PM
Good call apples 4 and 4 on the season.
Pitt94 says:
11/02/09 01:01PM

How did Justin Tuck fare vs. Winston Justice?

sho$money says:
11/02/09 07:53PM
apples awesome job
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User: demapples
Joined: November 2002
Location: Pennsylvania
Team: Philadelphia Eagles
Occupation: Arts/Entertainment

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