depeche2's Blog

Posted Monday, March 01, 2010 03:23 PM

Betting Experiment

Been betting a lot of games lately -- half or 1 unit each.  Most everything at -110.  So I'm now at 405 units wagered (over 10 days) and I've hit 54.2% for a +15.95 unit profit (219.5 to 185.5 to 9).  Not bad.  54% is all it takes.  I don't believe anyone claiming to hit 60%+ over a long period.  Not unless you get wacky lines.

Anyway, I also decided to track how many games I won by a half point.  That would be 14.  Combine those 14 with the 9 pushed and I figured that if I had merely a half point worse line on every game I'd be 51.38% and I'd be losing against -110.  Consistently getting half point better (or worse) can easily be the difference between a winner and a loser.  It may not seem big since the push or half point win only happens around 5% of the time, but those games are where you ultimately win or lose in the long run.




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User: depeche2
Joined: February 2002
Location: Illinois
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