Posted Monday, March 01, 2010 03:23 PM
Been betting a lot of games lately -- half or 1 unit each. Most everything at -110. So I'm now at 405 units wagered (over 10 days) and I've hit 54.2% for a +15.95 unit profit (219.5 to 185.5 to 9). Not bad. 54% is all it takes. I don't believe anyone claiming to hit 60%+ over a long period. Not unless you get wacky lines.
Anyway, I also decided to track how many games I won by a half point. That would be 14. Combine those 14 with the 9 pushed and I figured that if I had merely a half point worse line on every game I'd be 51.38% and I'd be losing against -110. Consistently getting half point better (or worse) can easily be the difference between a winner and a loser. It may not seem big since the push or half point win only happens around 5% of the time, but those games are where you ultimately win or lose in the long run.