der1904's Blog

Posted Sunday, March 24, 2013 01:11 PM

Sunday Men's Bball w/ Write-up

Cal +7 and Zona -10 treated me well yesterday, Zaga -6.5 not so much. 
Here's what I'm thinking for today:
La Salle(+3) – This line seems odd.  Ole Miss has gathered a lot of fans in the past few days, and this most definitely influences the line.  Not to mention, they dismantled a Wisconsin team that a lot of experts had going far.  On the other hand, if it wasn’t for La Salle having a great first half against Kansas St., they don’t win that game.  Yet the Rebels are only 3 point favorites?  Seems like Vegas wants you to bet Ole Miss.  Take La Salle.
Miami (-7) – I have Miami in my Final Four for a few reasons and I think they beat Illinois on Sunday by DDs. They’re a veteran team, have played together now for years, they defend, rebound very well, and they don’t turn the ball over very much. They blew the doors off Pacific on Friday 78-49. True, Pacific was a 15 seed, but have you seen how some of the other 1 and 2 seeds have fared against the 15s and 16s? Close calls to say the least, and Gtown lost outright to Florida Gulf Coast. Illinois had a 12 minute stretch in the second half on Friday where they didn’t score a field goal. Not good. They also went 8-10 in the Big Ten, which is not very good. I really don’t think they’re any match for the Miami Hurricanes in the round of 32. 
More on this and suggestions on minor tweaks to the NCAA Tournament if you're interested at http://3dphillysports.com/2013/03/th... [More]

Posted Friday, February 22, 2013 10:43 PM

MLB 2013 Over/Under Win Totals

I always love looking at these totals right as they come out.


Which ones do you guys like?  My early leans are:

Angels over 92.5
Phillies over 83.5
KC under 77.5
Braves over 87.5



Posted Saturday, February 16, 2013 04:13 PM

NBA All-Star Weekend Bets (w/ write-up)

Below are just a few bets  like for All-Star Weekend. I'm taking it out of an article I wrote for 3D Philly Sports. I threw out some All-Star Weekend and futures bets for the rest of the weekend if you're interested in giving it a quick read. http://www.3dphillysports.com/2013/02/NBA-All-Star-Weekend-Vegas-Odds.html
In any case, this is what I'm liking for tonight and tomorrow...
Stephen Curry to WIN the 3-point shooting contest: +220He's nailing almost 45% of his threes and averaging 21 points a game. I never thought he'd be this good at the NBA level. I truly thought he was undersized and wouldn't be able to create enough open shooting space to carry over his game from college to the pros. Yea, I was dead wrong there. Way to go Steph aka Ray Allen Jr. 
James White to win the Slam Dunk Contest: +150
He's favored for a reason....just check out some of his clips on youtube. The dude can fly. 
Carmelo Anthony to win All-Star Game MVP: +1500He might not be the obvious pick to win the MVP on Sunday night, but with these odds, sh*t, why not bet him? He's going to take a ton of shots, Lebron is going to keep passing the ball to him in flashy ways, and I think Carmelo can drop 28-32 points in the All-Star Game easily. If you think the West wins the game though, then hit Kevin Durant at +350. He's an unstoppable force himself. 
Eastern Conference All-Stars +2.5I always like taking the points and picking the underdog in any sort of All-Star ... [More]

Posted Sunday, February 03, 2013 03:09 PM

Super Bowl Pick with Prediction, Teasers, Prop bets (and Write-up)

This is just a small part from my full article at 3D Philly Sports, but this is the bottom line of what I'm thinking for today. If you're up for reading the whole thing, free free to check it out at http://www.3dphillysports.com/
 The Ravens will have to throw a bunch of different blitz packages at the Niners and hope Kaepernick's inexperience in the NFL rears its head in a big moment. The Ravens defense is extremely skilled and we all know this, but much of the skill at this point comes with playing with one another for years and simple instincts on the defensive side of the ball. Suggs, Reed, and Ray Lewis have seen it all, and have used their expertise to cause fits for Tom Brady and Andrew Luck in these playoffs. They were even able to limit Peyton Manning (something that hadn't been accomplished in about 3 months) and this is what they'll attempt to do with Kaepernick and Gore. 
I'm also sure that the Ravens will be taking a look at film of when they went up against similar QBs in the past, such as Dennis Dixon and the Steelers in 2009. They'll be looking at their mistakes no doubt, but they'll also be studying what they did well. This beautiful zone blitz which led to an interception (link on site) in OT and subsequent game-winning field goal is as good as it gets in my book. Ray Lewis comes in hard at the QB, Paul Kruger sells his rush towards Dixon, but then drops back in coverage for an awesome turnover. I'm looking ... [More]

Posted Thursday, January 31, 2013 07:22 PM

Prop Bets Galore w/ write-up

I wrote an entire article about this at 3D Philly Sports if you want to check it out if you have time, but here are my favorite prop bets for Super Sunday....
Colin Kaepernick Total Rushing Yards - Under 55.5 yards   (I really think this number is inflated because of his 181 yard outing against Green Bay. He had only 21 rush yards against Atlanta and has broken 56 only three times in ten games this season. Only once in the past six outings.)
Michael Crabtree Total receiving yards? Over 86.5   (If the 49ers win this game I'm leaning towards him being the MVP front-runner. Just a hunch but I think he goes off this Sunday night)
Ray Rice to score a TD?  +110 YES.  LOVE this one
Feel free to check out the whole article at http://www.3dphillysports.com/2013/01/vegas-update-super-bowl-xlvii-line.html if you'd like.  Feedback and comments much appreciated and welcome guys!
... [More]

Posted Saturday, January 12, 2013 12:19 PM

Ravens @Broncos w/ Write-up and Pick (4-0 last weekend)

Had some nice luck last weekend picking all 4 favs and even hit a nice Andrew Luck INT prop bet and first half UNDER in that game. Here's a breakdown of the Ravens/Broncos game. I have the full article posted at www.3dphillysports.com if you're interested in in reading more, but there's is a portion of the article that matters haha:
(4) Ravens  at (1) Broncos Saturday 4:30PM

Opening Line: Broncos -9
Current Line: Broncos -9 to -10
Where it likely settles: Broncos -9.5

This is really one of these games where 80-90% of us will agree on what the outcome of the game will be: Broncos take care of business at home. But the question then becomes: By how much?  The Ravens definitely did enough to impress me last weekend in order for me to think twice for a few days about whether or not they could pull off the huge upset here. 
But then I realized that they're going on the road to the Mile High City, the altitude messes everyone up who isn't used to playing there. The Broncos have won 11 in a row after falling behind 24-0 to the San Diego Chargers in Week 6. The defense is relentless, Von Miller has forced 6 fumbles this year on top of his 18.5 sacks. Champ Bailey is still a very viable corner, and Peyton Manning has been better than I could have ever imagined coming back from three (or is it four, or even five?) neck surgeries in the past couple of years. He also has too many weapons on offense for them to dr... [More]

Posted Sunday, January 06, 2013 03:39 PM

Seabirds @ Skins Pick w/ Write-up

Hope everyone is making some good cash today, my 1H Ravens Under 23.5 and Ravens -.5 Under 54 Teaser look solid so far.
This is a portion of my piece up on 3DPhillySports.com about the Seahawks/Skins games.  
Opening Line: Seahawks -2.5
Current Line: Seahawks - 3
Where it likely settles: Seahawks -3 (maybe Seahawks -3.5 in some places)

This one hurts guys. It's not that I don't want to see the Seabirds succeed, but I picked the Skins last weekend to beat the Cowboys 27-23 and then to go all the way on to the NFC Championship Game before falling to Green Bay. 
Why is this an issue you may ask? After all, I didn't pinpoint the final score but RG3 and the Skins did put up 28 points and win, so my prediction close enough. The issue here is Seattle is favored by three damn points on the road! The Skins started 3-6, have won seven straight, won the de facto NFC East Championship Game in front of their fans, have been awarded a first round home playoff game against a rookie QB, and they're NOT FAVORED. 


Ugh, I hate to say it, but this a big time Seattle line right here. My buddy Martin and I always try to guess each week's spread with one another via text or phone (we have to get him on a podcast next season by the way because these are usually entertaining conversations). In any case, my educated guess as to what this spread would be was REDSKINS -1 with the potential to move to SEATTL... [More]

Posted Saturday, January 05, 2013 03:12 PM

Saturday Playoff PICKS

I'm going with Texans 23-17 and 
Packers 31-17.  Both covering the spread.  I know Houston has been on a downhill trend as of late but they did just beat Indy at home a few weeks back, Cincy doesn't have a potent offese, and Houston has been down this road last year in the same game and the same time slot even haha.

Full write-up and postseason predictions round by round up: http://www.3dphillysports.com/2013/01/the-weekendervegas-update-wild-card.html if you get a few mins and want to check it out.  Let me know what you think!

BOL today everyone 


Posted Friday, December 28, 2012 06:39 PM

Updated NFL MVP and ROY Odds

Peterson +150
Peyton -200

Luck -140 for ROY


Latest Super Bowl odds for every team are up there. Some of them shocked me. Packers +700  might have some value. Thoughts?


Posted Monday, November 26, 2012 07:43 PM

It's been how long since the Eagles have won a game?

This breaks it down a bit more. It's been bad haha

http://www.3dphillysports.com/2012/11/the-weekender-its-been-how-long-since_25.html


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User: der1904
Joined: April 2006
Location: Pennsylvania
Team: Philadelphia Eagles
Occupation: Accounting/Finance

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