dmmx3's Blog

DMM's Mean Regression Plays: 72-60, 55%

By dmmx3 | View all Posts
Posted Thursday, February 23, 2012 04:25 PM   14 comments
Yesterday
Sides: 3-2 
Totals: 4-3 

Mean Regression Record to Date
Sides: 41-30, 57.75%, +8.0u
Totals: 31-30, 50.82%, -1.7u
OVERALL: 72-60, 54.55%, +6.37u

I did a fair bit of analysis on the past performance this morning, concentrating mostly on the totals since they are bringing down the win rate. However, I think there has been a bit of bad luck: The average winning total has won by 4.5 points more than the average losing total has lost. Another way to look at this is if you give or take 3 points from all of those games, a worst case scenario would only be 29-32, whereas a best case scenario would be 37-24. Given that info, our expected record is 33-28, for a 54.1% win rate. Essentially, volatility has not only not been on our side, it's actually been uncharacteristically unfavorable.

The "losing" record did give me a chance to review a number of variables, and, I believe, improve on the accuracy of the plays to some degree, eliminating some of the 50/50 and 52/48 games, and focusing on those that truly are not only likely to win, but likely to win at a rate that makes us profitable.

I added two new factors into the mix, both performing much the same as the rest of the factors - identifying historical statistical outliers that are due to chance and randomness, and not due to a team's true ability. That is, it is incorrect and inefficient to use these variables as predictors of future performance, and by correcting for these, we see which lines are most susceptible to our strategy.

Good luck tonight. A large card, and 23 plays here. 13-10 or better would be nice. Or 23-0.

Totals:  
  Duke O139'  Louisville O131  Stanford O130  USC O116'  Wisc-Mil O125  Bama O134  Eastern Illinois U118'  Weber U148  UCLA U123'  IUPUI U144'  StMarys U138  Pepperdine U135
Sides:
  USC +14  NoColorado +5'  FloridaAtlantic -6'  Troy +6'  Detroit +3'  Pacific +3  Iowa +5  SIU-Ed +9'  Tenn-Chat +6  Idaho +1'  San Diego +10

14 comments
comment Post A Comment
allbees says:
02/23/12 05:10PM
very interested by your posts,  keep it up.  
dmmx3 says:
02/23/12 05:13PM
Thanks - if this type of thinking interest you, check out Pomeroy's blog the last few days (if you haven't already.) His blog/site is a must-read for anyone who bets on sports, but the topic this week has been very similar to what I've always looked for in profitable edges: 

http://kenpom.com/blog/

T9X says:
02/23/12 05:18PM
dmmx3 says:
02/23/12 09:26PM
Eastern Illinois finishes under the total by 4'. Good thing the Panthers finished 0-17 from 3p. Morehead St. went 10-20 from 3. Quite the discrepancy in 3p%: 0% to 50%.
dmmx3 says:
02/23/12 09:56PM
If the Weber St 2h total gets bet up one point from the open, I'm taking the under right before the 2h tip. Full game total looks like a loss, but there is value here to be extracted still.
dmmx3 says:
02/23/12 11:46PM
If anyone took it, the 2h Weber under cashed easily. At my shops the line never got bet up like I thought it would so I never pulled the trigger.
dmmx3 says:
02/24/12 01:55AM
Pretty good evening: 9-3 on the totals. 5-6 on the sides (also the 2h Weber St. play). 14-9 on the day.

Totals:  
   Duke O139'  Louisville O131  Stanford O130  USC O116'  Wisc-Mil O125  

 Bama O134  

 Eastern Illinois U118'  

 Weber U148  

 UCLA U123'  

 IUPUI U144'  

 StMarys U138  

 Pepperdine U135

Sides:
  

 USC +14  

 NoColorado +5'  

 FloridaAtlantic -6'  

  Troy +6'  

 Detroit +3'  

  Pacific +3  

  Iowa +5  

  SIU-Ed +9'  

 Tenn-Chat +6  

 Idaho +1'  

  San Diego +10

dmmx3 says:
02/24/12 02:01AM
Updated results, and tomorrow's plays:


Yesterday
Sides: 5-6 
Totals: 9-3 

Mean Regression Record to Date
Sides: 46-36, 56.10%, +7.12u
Totals: 40-33, 54.79%, +4.36u
OVERALL: 86-69, 55.48%, +11.48u


Friday's Plays:

Sides:
Brown +4Princeton +11Butler +1'West Virginia PKFairfield +8

Totals:
Cornell O133'Columbia O125Princeton O117Butler O125Fairfield U141'

GL. 
dmmx3 says:
02/24/12 10:15AM
Butler at +5 now.... hmm.
dmmx3 says:
02/24/12 10:59AM
.... meant BROWN at +5.

Butler moved too, but moved the right way. 
TrunkzTomorrow says:
02/24/12 11:00AM
Yea no 5 yet lol
dmmx3 says:
02/24/12 11:18AM
I like to see when the line moves in our favor. Basically we have bought points on the closing line at no cost. When it goes the other way, the play was probably incorrect and we are on the wrong side. When the side moves 1 or more point in our favor, we hit about 60%. When the total moves 1.5 or more points in our favor, we hit about 60%. When the side moves 1 point away, I assume we are looking at ~45% to win (I should check the past performance), so that wager is losing money in the long run.

Here's how the lines have moved since the wagers were placed:


MOVEMENT REPORT 
(The records here are not wins and losses, they signify the games that we were on the right side of line movement, or wrong side)

Sides: 3-1-1, 3.5 total points in our favor
Brown +4 (now +5 almost everywhere; Negative 1)Princeton +11 (+10' to +11, no real movement. Neutral)Butler +1' (PK or -1, Positive movement of ~2 points, though crossing the zero isn't that huge.)West Virginia PK (-1' now, Positive 1.5)Fairfield +8 (+7 now, Positive 1)

Totals: 5-0, 4.5 points in our favor 
Cornell O133' (134' now, Positive 1)Columbia O125 (126 now, Positive 1)Princeton O117 (118 to 118' now, Positive 1 to 1.5)Butler O125 (125-126 now, Positive 0.5)Fairfield U141' (140' now, Positive 1)

Given historical performance at these line movements, our expectation is to hit 56.4% of the plays tonight. Hopefully that'll round up to a 6-4 evening.
dmmx3 says:
02/24/12 05:07PM
Here are Saturday's totals. Over 100 games so needed to get started on it early. A few of the lesser games don't have totals yet, but the play stands regardless of where the total opens.

Totals:
LSU O129Georgia St. O122Evansville U131'North Carolina O126Memphis O133Missouri U143WI-Milwaukee O115Towson O124Drexel O117Creighton U142Ball St. O105'Rutgers O126Bama O128George Mason O128Temple U140Tulsa O126UTEP O122USC O105'IUPUFW OIUPUI UOakland UMurray St. UWestern Illinois UNorthwestern U128'Sacremento St. UOral Roberts UEastern Washington USt. Mary's U148
dmmx3 says:
02/25/12 07:14AM
Well we end up 5-5, and again on the negative side of the variance. The 5 wins were by a total margin of 37 points, and the 5 losses were by a total margin of 23 points.

Totals and Sides are now winning at a remarkably similar rate - just a few tenths of a percent separating the two win rates.

Friday's Results:

Sides:
Brown +4Princeton +11 Butler +1' West Virginia PK Fairfield +8

Totals:
 Cornell O133' Columbia O125 Princeton O117 Butler O125 Fairfield U141'

Friday
Sides: 2-3 
Totals: 3-2 

Mean Regression Record to Date
Sides: 48-39, 55.17%, +5.88u
Totals: 43-35, 55.13%, +5.20u
OVERALL: 91-74, 55.15%, +11.08u
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User: dmmx3
Joined: December 2001
Location: Maryland
Team: Washington Redskins
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