Posted Monday, July 20, 2009 04:26 PM
First post, weeeeee. I've been using posts here to refine/improve my picks for a few years. This is the first time I've thought of an issue that's important enough to open an account and post.
Let me say that I'm not sure exactly where I'm going with this, and the intent is to improve our collective capping. Please don't take any of this as a personal affront.
A brief background: I've been capping for about 5 years. I've worked my ass off to improve my abilities, and this is the second year that I've been very well at it. My first 3 years were a mix of 2 winners and 1 loser... though I made some money, the last two years have turned this into a very profitable hobby for me, to the point where (if sustainable), I am crossing my fingers and hoping this will continue to be my primary source of income. Anyway, that's kinda neither here nor there.
In capping, I've noticed a trend towards "sharp squares." These are people who are generally slight losers to moderate winners, but have some dogmatic convictions that are so fucking absurd that they're laughable. They rant and rave about the 'law of averages,' 'reversion to the mean,' and other factors which are damn near irrelevant. While I realize that sports have a human element and we're not talking about objective outcomes like roulette or something, they overemphasize the wrong things. There are three great examples I can think of this, and they... [More]