donovan_shane's Blog

Posted Friday, August 17, 2012 01:21 PM

A commodities strategy for sports betting

I LOVE MLB favorites! -180? GREAT! -200? Even better!! Before I started playing poker for a living, I was in the finance game. If you are a money manager and make 10% A YEAR, every year, you are a star. Either that, or a criminal pushing a ponzi scheme, and the feds will investigate those outlandish returns! Forget 10% per trade, that would be pure fantasy! If you are a hedge fund manager and actively trade stocks, and make 35% a year...YOU ARE A SUPER STAR! If you even shot for 35% per trade, you would be branded a fool for such an outlandish game plan. Yet, in the sports betting world making 50% PER INVESTMENT (-200), is such a risky thing and there is better value out there, and you are crazy if you just bet these. Whatever. The funny thing is, when you talk to people that only bet on dogs, or individuals that push a "MLB under dog system" they all say the opposite. Stay away from the +165's and above. They say there is a reason that they are priced this way. Because one team is REALLY outmatched, and will more often than not win. If you take the top three -185 to -200's favorites in a given day, Usually 2 out of 3 of those will win as expected. Its not that difficult to do your homework and find out the most probable out of the three. As well as finding the one that is more likely to drop one in a series (I reverse engineer dog systems sometimes). Heres my point...how hard is it to pick 1 winner a day for 6 days? Well its much easier to do when yo... [More]

Posted Friday, July 20, 2012 09:28 PM

WSOP Final Table

Wow...no poker "superstars at the WSOP's final table. Also, great to see some solid cash game players making the final table!

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User: donovan_shane
Joined: June 2012
Location: Tennessee
Team: New York Giants
Occupation: Other

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