drifter44's Blog

Do we have a shot Rebel Report!!! SDST!! 1/12

By drifter44 | View all Posts
Posted Wednesday, January 12, 2011 03:04 AM   14 comments
OK we have seen what Jim boy Fredette is capable of and have to admit he has beaten me twice so far this week.......

On to the next Rebel challenge.  This is indeed a challenge facing a undefeated 6 ranked San Diego team at home.  The Aztecs have beaten the Rebels the last couple of years, 5 out of the last 6 to be exact. There is talk that Aztecs have not really been tested.  The 3 teams that they beat with some name value include Gonazga, St, Mary and Wichita St.  Here is what the local SD news is saying....

This is the same Runnin' Rebels team -- with perhaps more depth -- that SDSU defeated in the Mountain West tournament championship game last March. And it's a squad that has been ranked as high as 20th in the nation this season while eliciting praise from one of the sport's elite coaches.

"Early in the season, (Louisville coach) Rick Pitino made the comment that other than Duke, (UNLV) is the best team in the country," SDSU coach Steve Fisher said. "This is a veteran team with a lot of players, that's deep and well coached and lost a home game (last week) that they felt they should have won. We'll get their best shot."

UNLV routed Texas Christian on Saturday, three days after dropping its conference opener to No. 11 Brigham Young. The Rebels (13-3, 1-1) opened the season with nine straight victories, beating No. 20 Wisconsin and Virginia Tech before losing at No. 18 Louisville on Dec. 11. They then dropped a home game against UC Santa Barbara four days later.

While the Aztecs (17-0, 2-0) could have played better in their first two conference games, Fisher knows the value of a road victory in conference play. His team is one of five NCAA Division I undefeated squads and its 17-game winning streak is second only to top-ranked Duke.

The Aztecs are led by Leonard, Thomas and White up front which make like a 3 headed beast. They are ferocious on the boards and Leonard is considered NBA cant miss prospect!!  DJ Gay does an excellent job running the point. This team is very talented, all Fisher has to do on most days is roll out the balls and let them go.

If the Rebels show up and play their A game, which they are fully capable of, they can keep it close.  A close game is not good for Aztecs cause they tend to miss a few free throws and make bone head decisions in close games (Fisher).  Rebels have to be able to make shots and hit the boards. It is hard to make shots against SDST because they are so long and agile.

Willis and Stanback along with Jaspar will have to man up in order for Rebels to stay close. Bellfield will have to step up offensively and the Big guys will have to act like they want to stay in the game. This is my play guys, like it or not.  I do not trust UNLV enough right now to cover the spread. This will be a defensive game!!!

SDST ML and the Under 132-33  parlay!!!   

14 comments
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drifter44 says:
01/12/11 03:26AM
Hello where are the West coast homies??
Comments and feedback is appreciated and welcomed!!!
oakster says:
01/12/11 03:51AM
Drifter- I had started another thread on this game as well and I am following your line of thinking. I am a UNLV fan and have seen the rebs struggle against SDSU recently.I was at both losses in the T&M 2 years ago. Have you noticed the Rebs drop off since Tre'Von came back? I am thinking maybe he should come off the bench as a 6th man. I just don't want to see a repeat of 2 years ago when the team looked strong early but collapsed down the stretch. This may sound bad, but one of my most sure fire bets in my life was against the Rebels. They were playing at BYU catching a small number a few years ago and I just knew they were going to get beat. 
drifter44 says:
01/12/11 03:51AM

UNLV lost two of the three showdowns last season, but was

out-rebounded significantly in each game, including a 44-35 disparity in

a victory over SDSU at the Thomas & Mack Center to kick off the

series.

In total, the Rebels were out-done on the glass by a margin of 120-91 by the Aztecs in 2009-10.   

One positive UNLV has going for itself heading into Wednesday night

is that it knows exactly what to expect from SDSU's front line, which

rivals any unit in the country.

drifter44 says:
01/12/11 03:58AM
Yes I have mentioned that Willis is not the same player as last year and I believe that the emergence of Stanback and to a lesser extent the play of Marshall has affected his mind set.  He was the main guy last year and he may be playing mind games with his team mates as to who should be getting the most touches. He had a similar problem when he played with Wink Adams, a couple of years ago, that created some shit in the locker room. My hope is that he snaps out of his summer fiasco soon so that we can again become a contender down the stretch in the MWC!!
gamble04 says:
01/12/11 04:11AM
I have no idea how good SDST is this year but overall I think this is a good UNLV team this year.  I am trying to find highlights of SDST.  If you have any good stats please post them.
webba says:
01/12/11 09:20AM
I dunno, but your Rebs have shown some fight this year away from Thomas & Mack, and against decent competition...line is about right, and I agree with your under...dont see either squad cracking 70 in this one...more like a  64-60 type game.
KktdocT says:
01/12/11 11:05AM
GL.
daviddaman24 says:
01/12/11 11:11AM
Should be a hell of a game. I've got a play on UNLV based on my trap theory i've been working on and this one falls into that perfectly. The line just seems to low and too good to be true. #6 SDSU 17-0 at home, and 5-1 in the last 6 head to head, yet only -4.5? Just fishy as hell really. GL to you tonight. I'm hoping for a 2 or 3 point Aztecs win (Aztecs fan, but $ on UNLV)
wmubronco says:
01/12/11 11:13AM

good luck with SDS!

TRAIN69 says:
01/12/11 11:15AM


Nothin fishy imo. SD ST is a fraud 17-0 team and it will show come tourney time. That said, the correct play is SDST ML/Under parlay, just as drifter44 pointed out....

Doesnt mean UNLV can't win or cover, I think the line is dead on. The Rebels gotta do something on the road to get more respect, but giving LV more than 2 buckets is something that the linesmakers obviously felt was a no-no...

bol
daviddaman24 says:
01/12/11 11:20AM

How is SDSU a fraud?
Snappa says:
01/12/11 11:21AM
   Very good analysis,Drifter.  UNLV definitely capable of winning this game.....  Viejas Arena getting a rep as a tough place for a visiting team to win; Viejas is sold out for tonight's game.  Rebels have a good overall defense and may limit SDSU to some tough looks; SDSU shoots for high % and are monsters on the offensive boards, often getting 3-4 chances to score or be fouled.  SDSU is a poor free-throw shooting team, could be important in the last 2min of the game if UNLV is only a few pts. behind; UNLV is also a poor free-throw shooting team.  IMO...UNLV wins the first half by 2, Aztecs win the game by 8, and the total is under.
                                       
drifter44 says:
01/12/11 11:30AM
The key will be the play of Marshall and Bellfield for the Rebels and how much we can get out of our big men Thomas, Massamba and Lopez.  Here is what Coach Kruger said today about the matchup...

With a frontline of 6-foot-7-inch Kawhi Leonard, 6-8 Billy White and

6-9 Malcolm Thomas, the Aztecs pose a matchup nightmare for most

opponents, and the Rebels face the same predicament.

"They have a

lot of weapons. They're a tough matchup for anyone. They're as athletic

and active, I would imagine, as any team in the country," UNLV coach Lon

Kruger said.

"As many things as you have to talk about with San

Diego State, start with rebounding. If you give them second shots, then

you're in even more trouble."

Line is up to 5 now, if t goes up to 5.5 or 6 by game time may put small amount on Rebs. The play still stand (SDST ml and under 132.5 ) BOL!!!


drifter44 says:
01/13/11 02:34AM
Well won the parlay!!!   I also added Idaho ML for a 3tm payout.
The game could have gone either way on the spread a free throw or basket for either team could have covered the spread either way.

It amazes me how bad the Rebels shooting has become lately. I am sure that those long Aztec arms had something to do with it. Trevon Willis is just not the go to guy anymore and for the remainder of the year, he should let his ego aside.  I doubt that he is capable of humbling himself but if not the team will suffer!!
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