I'm going with the Illini +3 b.5. I have a difficult time backing a team that at times is very inconsistent from the FT line and the Rebels fit that play.  As the tourney has already indicated, guard play leads the way and I think with the ball in McCamey's hands, this will limit UNLV's propensity towards garnering steals and converting easy fastbreak opportunities, Illinois should remain close throughout.

Illinois has struggled down the stretch this year and their performance against Michigan in the Big10 quarterfinals typified their season.  Illinois looked slow against UM's guards in the 2H, failed to rotate to the weakside perimeter player (I think Michigan attempted at least 15 3's in the 2H alone; this is the sole reason Michigan made their run to close the game) and looked slow in their transition defense when Darrius Morris and Tim Hardaway, Jr. penetrated into the paint allowing for all those uncontested 3-point attmepts.  If UNLV decides to push their offense in transition, Bellfield and Marshall will look to get Willis and Stanback cutting towards the paint from the wings. While I think this is Illinois' biggest weakness, I also have to look no further than UNLV's last game to see where the Illini will exploit what I perceive as the Rebels weakness.  SDSU did an excellent job of rotating their half court sets and finding the weakside defender cheating into the paint, allowing SDSU several and-1 chances after converting in the lane.  Without question, SDSU's frontcourt dominated the Rebels throughout. With Illinois' size, I anticipate this pattern to continue, where Tisdale and Davis are very good at scoring with the paint and both are adequate at shooting FT's (although let me clarify Leonard/White > than the Davis/Tisdale combo).  I believe Illinois will want to establish their inside game early, primarily through Tisdale as his size, length and athleticism will give F Quintrell Thomas and/or C Brice Massamba fits.  With the Rebels having to collapse down into the paint to protect the lack of size in their frontcourt, this should allow Illinois to find their range from beyond the arc.  The Illini average 18 attempts from 3, making seven per contest.  With all this said, you could really draw a line through each of these teams statistical performances this year. And that's why if there is one player who may be this game's unknown x-factor, the ideal candidate is Bill Cole.  When given the minutes, Cole can provide 8 points, 5 rebounds and plays sound defense where his height can disrupt looks from in close.  Cole also shoots over 80% from the FT line and can sub for either Davis or Tisdale.  The unknown for Illinois is D.J. Richardson.  He has been ice cold since mid-February and he plays critical minutes.  If he is not hitting his shots and cannot give Illinois a potential third scorer, their chances of victory decrease drastically.

This will be only the third time that I have backed the Illini this year, both prior instances as a road dog (3/1/11 @ Purdue +9.5, 67-75 and 2/5/11 @ NW +2, 70-71).  I would tend to agree with your mL play but at this point in the year, certain situations dictate that I must take the points.  And while Illinois has struggled to close games out this year, I think Illinois will embrace the pressure and keep this game a one possession game late.

As for intangibles, I rank Kruger and Weber low on the coaching efficiency rating and having watched a lot of Big10 games, Weber is known to burn timeouts inexcusably, which are valuable this time of year. No real advantage either way.

Drifter, I'm sure you might not give too much weight to my analysis. I do recall going back and forth with you earlier in the season when the Rebels traveled to play Illinois St in December. I backed the Redhawks +9.5 in that game and they were absolutely destroyed. But tomorrow's matchups offer more value with Illinois but, I think your UNLV mL may cash too.

UNLV 61, Illinois 60 .

GL with your play drifter44 .

ESPN Dick Vitale and Jay Bilas both like Illinois to beat UNLV. I have to go with the Wiseguys choices. UNLV sucks!