Dsanch8's Top NCAAF Plays Week 6

14-16 overall

Short and sweet has not been winning it for me, but here it goes...

I am a believer in the "bounce back game" for all ranked teams that have last the previous game. I think that explains a lot of my plays for this Saturday.

Penn St. (-7.5) over Illinois

ARK (-5) over Tex A&M

FL (-6) over LSU

GL

DSanch8's NFL Top Plays Week 4

12-12 Overall - I now know the cold chill of being at .500 for pick'ems

Big plate today for picks! Short and sweet because I'm busy but also lazy.

NYJ (-6) over BUFF - BUFF's awakening from offensive obscurity is now over. NYJ's DEF should shut down the Havard grad with it's better personnel and run down the BUFF's DEF throat since they give up 141yds/game.

ATL (-6.5) over SF - SF is a terrible offensive team now with no OC and no direction. Expect a very generic offense from a SF team going across the country to play a team that is similar to the 1 that crushed them in SF last year. The UNDER 42.5 maybe a good play too since I don't see the either OFF doing way too much vs. good DEFs.

Cincy (-3) over CLEVE - CLEVE is terrible and has terrible coaches making terrible decisions. Is a <100% Delhomme really that much better than a healthy Wallace? Either way Carson Palmer and the Cincy OFF will correct their lackluster offensive ways vs. a team that gave up a huge day to a struggling Joe Flacco last week.

OAK/HOU UNDER 43 - Yes, HOU DEF gives up a lot of yards in the air but OAK OFF doesn't throw that much and primarily is a running team. Yes, HOU OFF does have a high powered passing attack but with Namdi stopping Andre Johnson, the OAK DEF only has to worry about Arian Foster blowing up.

CHI (+3) over NYG - Too many injuries on the NYG DEF to stop a pretty consistent and, dare I say, high powered CHI OFF that has been moving the ... [More]

Dsanch8's Top NCAAF Plays Week 5

12-10 overall

Short and sweet this time around.

Northwestern (-5.5) over MINN

Maryland (-8.5) over Duke

Big wins today guys good luck!

DSanch8's NFL Top Plays Week 3

ONLY 1 PLAY FOR THIS SUNDAY AND IT IS A HUGE WINNER!

SF (-3) over KC - SF's defense has the front line to get pressure on Cassel without the blitz, an LB crew that is great vs the run and the pass, and a secondary that is fast enough to stop the big play if the KC running game does get past the 1st 2 lines of the defense. The KC running game is the only thing that the Chiefs have going for them. Cassel has been inconsistent and shaky in the pocket. They would have lost to Cleveland if it wasn't for a Seneca Wallace blunder that went from an INT to a TD in 5 seconds and special teams play that gave them a TD vs. SD. Also, the KC front line will be missing their starting guard and DT Jackson will be missing the game as well. Forget that SF lost a heartbreaker at home. Forget that they have a short week this week. Forget that they are even on the road and playing at a time where the equivalent would be 10am if they were to play at home. SF will win this game if Alex Smith can not only get out of Frank Gore and the rest of the SF's team way, but also out of his own way. Seeing how MNF ended, he should be able to do that. Big money on SF!

GL to all

Dsanch8's Top NCAAF Plays Week 4

5-2 in NCAAF games

10-5 overall

2-1 last week

IOWA/BALL ST. UNDER 46 - Iowa's Def was completely embarrassed vs AZ letting AZ come out to an early big lead and letting AZ score late to win it. I honestly will be surprised if Ball St. scores more than 9 points this game if any. I don't think Iowa's offense will score that much either since they will most likely keep it on the ground vs. a below average BSt. Def against the run. Ball St's only strength on offense is the run and that is Iowa's Def's biggest strength as well. I believe I will be going with the bigger school on who's strength will win this 1.

Air Force (-13.5) over Wyoming - Run, run, run. That's all the AF Off is. Too bad Wyoming can't do anything about it since they play it terribly. This is a bad spot for a team that already gives up 211yds per game vs. the run. The only weakness the AF Def has is vs. the run as well, but luckily for them, Wyoming can't do that well either. Even in their lone win, Wyoming rushed 24 times and only came up with 36yds. Big win here for AF, especially coming from that OKLA game they could've, and should've, won.

South Carolina (+3) over Auburn - SC has had an impressive resume so far and has stopped some pretty good offenses. With the run game being the key for both teams, it looks like SC wins both offensively and defensively. Even with the home field advantage, I can see SC winning not on the spread but the game itself.

NIU/MINN OVER 4... [More]

DSanch8's NFL Top Plays Week 2

3-1 for Week 1

6-2 overall

TOP PLAY:
NO (-5.5) over SF - 11 days. That's how much time NO had to prepare for this game since they played opening night Thursday and will be playing on MNF. Even though SF maybe a dangerous team to bet against (home opener, a lot of promise in the offseason, strong skill players and defense, etc), it's hard not to pick against the SB winners. SF Def gave up a lot of yards which isn't good when you're going against a high octane offense. I think the NO Def is physical enough to stop the SF offense, especially since Alex Smith still looks lost as a starter.

OTHER PLAYS:
PHI vs. DET UNDER 41.5 - Did everyone forget that Vick has 1 of the worst completion %'s as a NFL QB? An underrated DET Def had 1 week to study and gameplan vs. a Vick led offense as opposed to GB's above average Def having the surprise of having Vick thrown at them. Vanden Bosch and Suh had huge games vs. the CHI OLine and should have a good game against the PHI OLine that left Kolb out to dry on numerous occasions. DET's Off will sputter with Sean Hill under center. Yes, this is the same Sean Hill that has a winning record as a start and did start for SF last year. But he's not behind the same OLine he had in SF and he will be running for his life vs. a very active Def.

DEN (-3.5) over SEA - Another key stat: 10-0. That is the record of DEN's last 10 home openers. SEA took advantage of an inaccurate Alex Smith and piled on the points with shor... [More]

Dsanch8's Top Plays Week

3-1 in NCAA Football games

6-2 in both NCAA Football and NFL games

Ga Tech (+2) over UNC - UNC was weak against the run vs. LSU, how will they handle the run against a team that pretty much has 90% of their offense on the ground? UNC still has players ineligible for the game so the team will still be thin. I know they will be coming off a huge layoff from their loss at the hands of LSU, but those long days off only help the hurt, not a team that's already weak. Add in that GT is coming off an upset loss to Kansas and UNC's problems keep piling up. GT is also very good against the pass which is how UNC got a lot of their yards vs. LSU.

Hawaii (+12.5) over Colorado - Colorado is a sheep in wolf's clothing of this game. How are they double digit favorites for this game? Hawaii played very strong vs. USC and lost a close game vs. Army with a hurt QB and traveling across the Pacific and the continental U.S. to play them. Colorado took advantage of 3INTs in the Colorado St. game that set up short fields for an anemic offense. Yes, I know this is the home opener for the Buffs, but I think Cal showed the college football world who Colorado really is by crushing them last week. Hawaii may not have the same defense as Cal, but the Colorado Oline is thin. Hawaii has a good enough offense to move the ball vs. an average Colorado def. Moniz is back and will start for Hawaii which should give life to a 0-2 team that shouldn't be winless. Don't be afraid to look at the... [More]

NFL Star Plays for Week 1

Just going to make this short and sweet just like the NCAA post. Went 3-1 yesterday in NCAAF and hoping to continue to rack up the wins.

CHI/DET UNDER 44.5 - DET defense is underrated and their offense is overrated. Both teams will do nothing on offense and be huge on defense.

GB (-3) over PHI - I seriously have no love for Kevin Kolb and his performance last year. I thought it was overrated as well and will be going against a very good GB that is unlike the swiss cheese def that was the KC one he faced. GB offense is unstoppable even for the PHI def.

MIA (-3) over BUFF - How this is still a 3pt spread I have no idea. BUFF is going to have a terrible year and will probably have every loss be in the double digits. Chan Gailey can't revive the offense in 1 year. The def has 1 bright spot in Byrd while the rest of it is average at best. MIA is just an average team but still very capable of winning by over 3 points. Don't even be surprised if MIA shuts out BUFF or holds them to less than 10 pts.

SD (-4.5) over KC - KC is still a team on the rise but does not stand a chance vs SD. First off, the game is late for a central time zone game. SD is used to playing at 7pm from previous primetime games unlike KC who has to adjust to the late 9:15pm start time. Add that to SD's offense trying to prove it doesn't need V. Jackson against a slower KC def, and you see how KC has problems. SD covers by halftime, and Arrowhead stadium is half empty by half as well. ... [More]

Saturday Picks

I am back but I have to make this quick on my picks.

Army (-3) over Hawaii - just too long of a distance for Hawaii and will be a let down game only losing by 13 to USC

Michigan (+3.5) over ND - ND's defense looked like it struggled vs Purdue and WILL struggle vs. Michigan even at home. Maybe a high scoring game as well so don't look past the OVER too.

Alabama (-12.5) over Penn. St. - #1 rankings always crush their opponents at home. With a freshie QB, PSU may start off slow again and may not be able to recover this time.

LSU (-10) over Vandy - Seriously, Vandy sucks. How this is only 10 points I have no idea. Ever since Cutler left, they have been nothing in the SEC and went back to being the SEC powerhouses' whipping boy. Pile on this now before it goes up.

Good luck to all. Make sure you check out my picks for the NFL games tomorrow!

Thanksgiving picks and plays

I started off hot and now I've cooled off. Now I'm looking for opinions from all of you about tomorrow's games.

GB -10.5 over DET

NYG/DEN UNDER 42

What do you guys think? I was feeling 5U on each game and then 5U on a 2 game parlay.

Agree? Good play? Pretty confident in both.

Dolphins/Panthers UNDER 43 tonight!..with writeup

I'm not feeling any team, but I am feeling the UNDER 43.

Ronnie Brown is the key to the wildcat since he is not only a great runner, but he is also an adequate passer. I think Pat White has only thrown once in game all year and on a short week, that won't give him that much time to really get this arm ready for more of a passing role. Ronnie Brown out means more of a conventional style sets for the Dolphins. This takes away from their offense because the key to the wildcat is doubt and misdirection. This also may mean more throws against a top 5 passing defense.

Carolina is just going to run the ball and take it away from Jake's hands. MIA ranks 6th or 7th vs the run and can at least limit the Panthers run game. As for them passing, MIA is not too bad vs the pass and you can't put that much trust into Jake in a nationally televised night game on a short week. Last 2 times something like this came together, he got owned by the Dallas and AZ defense.

The only thing that scares me is the MIA ST vs the CAR ST. Carolina ST has already given up 2 ST TDs this season. If they can limit Ted Ginn Jr. on the return game, Carolina has a huge chance to win this game.

UNDER 43

NFL Plays through 11/09/09

GB (-9.5) over TB

Chicago/AZ OVER (44.5)

Balt (-3) over Cincy

Questions? Comments? Concerns?

NCAA Football Plays through 11/09/09

Sorry no write ups but I didn't have time to. I will say I did go 2-2 last week for NCAA plays. Record is still good, but had my worst week last week going .500.

Took La Tech (+21) over Boise St. tonight but did not have time to put it down. Here goes the rest of the picks...

Ohio State (+5.5) over Penn St.

Houston (-1) over Tulsa

Houston/Tulsa UNDER (69.5)

USC (-10) over AZ St.

USC/AZ St. UNDER (45.5)

Questions? Comments? Concerns?

NFL plays for WEEK 8 through 11/02/09

OVERALL: 28-13

NFL:

8-4 since started posting

13-6 on all bets

Still off to a good start. Week 8 is probably 1 of the more difficult weeks to cap, but I still got some games out of it.

NYG (-1) over Philly - Good teams do not lose 3 games in a row. Good QBs don't have 3 bad games in a row. NYG rights the ship and wins vs Philly in a huge divisional game. Defense usually comes up in big games as well and this could mean the Under 44 could also be in play.

Baltimore (-3.5) over Denver - Picturing it in my head, I could see Denver losing for the 1st time this season on Sunday rather than Baltimore losing 4 games in a row. This line will probably go lower as game time comes around the corner because bettors won't believe their eyes seeing an undefeated team as underdogs coming out of a bye. Orton will see a defense actually similar to his and won't move very far on them. I also don't like the cross country travel for Denver even with the 2 weeks.

Baltimore/Denver UNDER (41.5) - Denver has proven it's defense can hold offenses to low scores. Baltimore will show Orton a lot of different looks and I see a multi-pick game for Kyle. Yes, Baltimore scored 30+points on the Minn D at Minn but the Denver D is more speed based and can actually move from sideline to sideline. 

Oakland (+16.5) over SD - Oak sucks vs the run but SD can't run the ball. Oak's only strength is their running game and S... [More]

NCAA Football PLAYS through 11/02/09

OVERALL: 28-13

NCAA:

11-3 since started posting

19-8 on all bets including parlays

Still off to a good start. I wanted to add the ECU (+5.5) over Memphis to my plays of the week but I didn't have enough time to make a post. Hopefully these will  also end up like winners like last night's game.

UNC (+17) over Va Tech - This is just too many points for a in-conference game and against a UNC team that isn't bad even though it has been reeling as of late. Va Tech can't stop the run well while UNC can. This goes against my philosophy of betting ranked teams after a loss the week prior but this is just too many points. Va Tech wins, but not by more than 17.

Ohio (-6.5) over Ball St. - Ball St.'s starting QB is out for the season and in comes the backup to run this terrible offense. Ohio isn't any better but has been much improved vs the only offensive threat the Ball St. offense has: the run game. The Ball St. D is straight up terrible. I see the line being low because of Ball St. picking up their 1st win last week...vs another winless team. Their coach just picked up his 1st win in 23 years! Ohio wins, and I may even look into the over of 44

Idaho (-3) over La Tech - I caught on to the Idaho train late, but didn't take them last week because of how dangerous Nevada is. La Tech is not that dangerous and they don't travel well. Idaho is dominant at home and even though they g... [More]

NFL plays for WEEK 7 through 10/26/09

OVERALL: 22-11

NFL:

6-3 since started posting

10-5 on all bets

Still off to a good start. Have to make this short and sweet though.

INDY (-13) over ST. Louis - The Rams are a straight up terrible team. Indy is a good team coming off a bye and getting healthy by having Bob Sanders back to stop the Rams' only offensive threat, Stephen Jackson. With Donnie Avery at <100% and that defense having a laundry list of injuries, Indy should have no problem.

NYG (-7) over AZ - NYG is going to bounce back from a pretty embarrassing loss to NO by crushing the former NFC champs on national TV. Warner can't pass in the meadowlands for some reason. AZ's line has been a problem pretty much all season and will have their toughest test to date on Sunday night. Warner can't hit Boldin or Fitzgerald when he's on his back.

GB (-9.5) over Cleveland - Cleveland sucks, Derek Anderson is < 50% in completion %, and key players like Jerome Harrison and Shaun Rodgers are battling the flu. Do I really have to say more?

That's it for now. Comments, questions, concerns?

NCAA Football PLAYS through 10/26/09

OVERALL: 22-11

NCAA:

7-2 since started posting

13-6 on all bets

Still off to a good start. Hopefully it can last throughout the bowl games too.

Tulsa (-7.5) over UTEP - UTEP is a terrible team defensively. They can't stop the run or the pass. Tulsa does both well enough to light this team up. The only UTEP threat is the running game and I do not see a repeat of what happened to Houston here for Tulsa. Tulsa's run D is pretty stiff and should force a lot of 3 and outs against a team that does not have much after the run game.

Kansas St. (-4.5) over Colorado - The Buffs looked great for a half. Running down a KU team that was probably caught looking toward next week rather than their straight up terrible opponent in front of them. Then KU started looking like KU again and the Colorado D started to look like Sam Cassell's face. This won't happen vs a KS St. team that knows it has a chance to be bowl eligible for the 1st time in 3 years.

Boston College (+8) over Notre Dame - Can you really give 8 points to a team playing the Irish this year? I mean all their wins have come down to the wire no matter if they are favored or underdogs. BC just came from a huge whoopin' of NCST, the ACC whipping boy. I expect the type of game since BC are good against the run and the pass while the ND D gives it up like chicks at the prom. 

TCU/BYU UNDER (50) - last... [More]

NCAA Football PLAYS through 10/19/09

OVERALL: 15-7

NCAA:

2-0 since start of posting

8-4 on all bets

2nd week of posting. Hopefully it goes as good as last week.

Bowling Green (-3) over Ball St. - Bowling Green isn't a great team. I wouldn't even say mediocre since their record is under .500 and the barely eeked out a win vs Kent St. by 1. But these below average teams feast on even crappier teams like Ball St. Ball St. is just terrible and should be taken to the house by the BG offense. I won't look at it but the over of 54.5 can be looked at too. I say stick to the spread.

Georgia (-7.5) over Vandy - Kind of same as above but Georgia is actually good and Vandy is just that bad. Only thing Vandy has is a running game and Georgia is a little above average at stopping the run. No way Vandy QB Nelson will be throwing 3 TDs in a half like TENN did to this Georgia D. Georgia bounces back and takes this knowing it has to compete and stay alive for a bowl game.

BC (-2.5) over NC St. AND depending on the weather Over(46.5) - BC is coming off a huge VaTech loss but can still be in the hunt of the ACC. I like ranked teams that fall and have home games the next week. NC St. can put up points but they aren't that good. NC St.'s defense is either out or questionable for the game. BC's D has some injuries listed as questionable as well.

Kansas (-10) over Colorado - KU offen... [More]

NFL plays for WEEK 6 through 10/19/09

Overall (NFL & NCAAF): 15-7

NFL:

3-1 since start of posting

7-3 on all bets

So this is my 2nd week of posting picks. I wouldn't do it again unless I was above .500 and here I am. Week 6 looks to be more difficult to handicap than last week, but I found some games that are locks in my eyes

NE (-9.5) over TENN - Did my eyes deceive me or did Tom Brady miss an open Wes Welker for an easy TD on the slot and give up a late fumble midfield inside 2 minutes? Not very Brady-esque and that won't continue this week. TENN is only good at stopping the run and NE doesn't even run that much. TENN's only offensive weapon is at Chris Johnson and the NE D held the 5th ranked rushing offense in Denver to only 103yds. TENN's secondary is banged up and has a laundry list of people on the injury report. 2nd and 3rd stringers can't beat NE at home.

GB (-13.5) over DET- DET sucks. Honestly I have no idea how they covered last week, but they suck. GB coming off a bye and a crushing loss to a NFC North rival should change things for them. Seeing MINN and CHI go against tough opponents this week should light a fire under GB since they aren't out of the race yet. Biggest problem for GB is their OLine and DET doesn't have anyone that can generate a pass rush. Doesn't matter who the QB is, GB should win this game. 

Honestly, these are the only 2 games I feel confident about. Not even any over/unders... [More]

NFL LOCKS for WEEK 6 through 10/19/09

Overall (NFL & NCAAF): 15-7

NFL:

3-1 since start of posting

7-3 on all bets

So this is my 2nd week of posting picks. I wouldn't do it again unless I was above .500 and here I am. Week 6 looks to be more difficult to handicap than last week, but I found some games that are locks in my eyes

NE (-9.5) over TENN - Did my eyes deceive me or did Tom Brady miss an open Wes Welker for an easy TD on the slot and give up a late fumble midfield inside 2 minutes? Not very Brady-esque and that won't continue this week. TENN is only good at stopping the run and NE doesn't even run that much. TENN's only offensive weapon is at Chris Johnson and the NE D held the 5th ranked rushing offense in Denver to only 103yds. TENN's secondary is banged up and has a laundry list of people on the injury report. 2nd and 3rd stringers can't beat NE at home.

GB (-13.5) over DET- DET sucks. Honestly I have no idea how they covered last week, but they suck. GB coming off a bye and a crushing loss to a NFC North rival should change things for them. Seeing MINN and CHI go against tough opponents this week should light a fire under GB since they aren't out of the race yet. Biggest problem for GB is their OLine and DET doesn't have anyone that can generate a pass rush. Doesn't matter who the QB is, GB should win this game. 

Honestly, these are the only 2 games I feel confident about. Not even any over/unders... [More]

NFL and NCAA LOCKS for WEEK 5 through 10/12/09

Early this week I'm looking at taking these games:

NCAA:
Vandy - Army Under - under not posted but both offenses suck and both defenses are alright against the run.

Houston (-2.5) over Miss ST - Houston's going to bounce back and can vs. a Miss St. team still trying to find identity.

NFL:
Pitt (-10.5) over Det - Lions' def is straight up terrible. Pitt knows they have to get some wins in a division that is now a 3 team race. Stafford's hurt so Det could either have a <100% Stafford or an inconsistent Culpepper making his first start of the year. Also, neither QB will probably get full time with the 1st team offense so there will be a lack of chemistry on whoever is starting. Det's OLine is going to get demolished by Pitt's front 7. I say expect a similar embarrassment in the trenches like what was seen in the Minn vs GB game.

NE vs Den Under (41.5) - Den's def should be good enough at home to limit the NE offense. Den's offense is just not that good in my eyes and should be limited as well. Only thing that scares me is the Den running game vs the NE def.

Ind (-3,5) over Tenn - People are still on the Tenn train for some reason when their pass def isn't what it used to be. No pressure from the departed Haynesworth equals a pass defense that's last in the league. Not good when going against the #1 passing offense. Only thing that scares me is if Bob Sanders will still be out against the elusive Chris Johnson. The r... [More]

NCAA Football and NFL picks and plays through 10/12/09

Just wanted to start a thread about picks for college and NFL games. Feel free to add in locks you feel are good.