dynamicmetsfan's Blog

Super Bowl Props - Edges And Stats

Super Bowl props are probably one of my favorite things to bet in the Super Bowl. Wagerweb offer the largest variety of props for the Super Bowl and all below lines and action are courtesy of Wagerweb who is offering a 200% bonus. Simply deposit by one of their methods which include Visa pre-paid gift cards and play. Another Super Bowl and another prop package. I personally do not just bet any prop. All of my recommendations are based on factual information and statistics. I simply won't invest money on picks just for fun on props like, "Will the coin toss be heads or tails." There will be in depth analysis behind every prop bet. Don't miss out on my $10 prop package guaranteed or 1 week of NBA is FREE!

1st play will be a pass (Yes -125) (No -115)
The Giants have played in 19 games while the Patriots have played in 18. The Patriots have had the ball 2nd on 89% of their games this season. The only two times they got the ball first it was the Broncos and the Bills deferring. The majority of teams like to take the ball first when they win the toss in fear of going down 7-0. The Patriots also like to defer and each and every time they have won the toss that's what they have done. While the Giants have won the toss 9 out of their 19 opportunities and have elected to receive 7 or 77% of the time. There is a great chance the Giants will have the ball first in this one. In case you are curious the odds for the Giants to have the ball first are -325. No value there. Giants have passed the ball 9 out of their 19 first drives and Manning has completed 5 of 8 (1 scramble) while averaging 10.2 yards per pass (16, 6, 14, 7, 8) There is a 22% chance the play will go for more than 8 yards.

1st scoring play will be (TD -200) (FG/Safety +150)
Judging on how bad the Patriots defense has been and assuming they get the ball first one has to assume they'll be driving the ball right down the field. If that happens The Giants are 9th in red zone offense from a TD % perspective at 54.41%. The Patriots were in the middle of the pack in TD% allowed in red zone attempts allowing 52.94% over the season. I will have a premium play on this proposition that you can get in my prop package.

There will be no turnovers in the game (+800)
This one is interesting to me being this is a huge game and there should be little to no mistakes, but these two teams turned the ball over a combined 6 times in the first match up. Initially I was going to make this a play, but both teams are in the top 10 in the league in takeaways per game 1.9 and 2.0 and they are also in the top 10 in least amount of giveaways per game with 1.2 and 1.3. Giants just turning the ball over 1 time in the playoffs made me like this with great value.

Giants total # of sacks (Over 2.5 -105) (Under -135) / 1st sack of game (Patriots +105) (Giants -145)
Another bet the public will be likely all over by perception that the Giants defensive line will be too much to handle for the Patriots and they may be right considering the Giants were ranked 5th in sack % 7.51% of drop backs and they were ranked 3rd with 3 sacks per game. The Patriots passed the ball 38 times per game which comes out to 2.85 sacks per game for the Giants defense. Check out my premium pick in my prop package.

Patriots total # of penalties (Over 5.5 -120) (Under 5.5 -110)
The Patriots averaged 5 penalties per game in 2011 and they committed 5.8 in road games. Now they did not play in a dome and I figure that's why it is at 5.5 as domes tend to be a little bit loader. Also expect a Super Bowl to be played a lot tighter than regular season games so the penalties will be happening more frequent and the Patriots had 7 penalties in the first game. Check out my premium pick in myprop package.

Tom Brady's longest completion (Over 42.5 -110) (Under -120)
Playing in a dome can result in a lot of big plays that's for sure and Tom Brady is very capable of making that happen. In fact he had 12 passing plays in more than half of the Patriots 18 games this year making it very likely that he'll complete a pass over 42.5 yards. Then again will the Giants pass rush allow him to? Check out my premium pick in my prop package.

Will Tom Brady throw an interception? (Yes -125) (No +125)
Great defensive lines sometimes can force interceptions and that's what the Giants did in the first game as Tom Brady threw two interceptions. The Giants as a team have 20 interceptions on the year and Brady can go into some cold streaks and has thrown an interception in each of his last 3 games. Which Brady will we see? Check out my premium pick in my prop package.

Stay tuned for a prop package #2 as we get closer to game time and as always don't miss out on my nfl against the spread pick it's a 6* MAX NFL POD!