eckins11's Blog

Posted Wednesday, September 03, 2014 09:51 PM

NFL coin flip theory

The coin flip theory.  Have you ever hit that point of desperation (a la John Anthony in the movie Two For the Money) where you make a wagering decision based on a coin flip?  Where your own research, statistical breakdowns, expert advice, etc., etc., all equated to a loss at the end of the game?  Many of us have latched on to the hottest prognosticator on this or other websites to ride their coattails to victory.  However I’ve read that even a great handicapper will only win about 55-60% of their total picks over the course of a season.  I predict a coin flip can do better.

Pschaw you say??  Let’s see how you do against the coin.

 

Here’s my experiment.

Just for the sake of science, I will flip the same coin for every game of the season and post the results here before the Thursday night game.  I will post the lines I am picking against and we will see how the coin flip does over the course of each week and season.  To keep things consistent, the home team will always be heads as will the over (thus visitors will be tails as will the under).   Keep in mind, I will be choosing lines based their postings Thursday….so if there are last minute changes to the lines prior to game time, those will not be reflected.  Also, if a game is off the board pending an injury update, that will not be accounted for either unless I feel like doing it Sunday morning (d... [More]

Posted Saturday, September 21, 2013 12:27 PM

Tout service debacle! 0-11???? Seriously??

I would love to hear your stories about these guys that call with "inside information".   Here's mine.
About 10 years ago I called an 800 number for their free pick. Of course the free pick was made on a Tuesday and if I wanted updated info I had to pay for it.  I declined.  No surprise the free pick lost.
Over the next 12 months I got calls from many services who obviously bought my number from the original tout I called. 
Fast forward to SIX years later when a new service calls.  Clearly they are scraping the bottom of the barrel and bought a very old number.  Regardless I take the call and listen to the sales pitch.  As an experiment I negotiated the cost of the  guaranteed "Monster NCAA pick of the Year!!!" down to $25.  He asked how much I bet and I lied and told him I bet $25/game, fully knowing they try to get you to bet more.  The guarantee behind the pick is they will give you free picks until you win.  This is where it becomes really laughable.
The "Monster" pick didn't cover and I lost $50 plus the cost of the pick.   So I call him the next day and he gives me two more picks.  This time he tells me I need to bet $50/game.  So I don't bet them at all, but tell him I am and I track his picks.  He goes 0-2.  
I'll spare you the long details, but will tell you that over the next week they ASSURE me that each pick has better information and surely this one will hit.  They... [More]

Posted Monday, November 05, 2012 11:00 AM

A word of advice about sh*tfinger.....

While I'm new to posting on here, I'm certainly not new to taking advantage of the great info from the site and you bloggers.  So I'm giving back what I can. 

Hopefully this is obvious or common sense to most of you, but I'm certain we all fall victim to this from time to time.  It's what I refer to as "sh*tfinger".  This affliction can affect each of us at one time or other and it's the exact opposite of the Midas touch.  Where every pick you make turns to sh*t and you're suddenly in the driver's seat of an awful losing streak.  You went from 11-5 on the season to 1-6 last week and 0-5 this week.  You get in your head and start doing the opposite of what you THINK you should bet.  If you like the over, you take the under.  You like the dog, so you bet the favorite.  Still you find a way to lose.

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User: eckins11
Joined: October 2011
Location: California
Team: Philadelphia Eagles
Occupation: Sales/Marketing

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