Covers’ Expert and line consultant David Malinsky hooked us up with some projected lines on possible BCS Bowl matchups.
Props to Mr. Malinsky, a longtime professional capper, who took time during his pre-NBA holiday to provide us with what I feel is valuable information – a rarity in this column.
Obviously, a lot will happen before bowl season. But you can bet Malinsky’s numbers won’t be too far off. If they are, this will indicate a major development has occurred with a team since late October. It may be a key injury or a coaching controversy. Whatever it is, make sure to check it out thoroughly and then decide whether or not oddsmakers have accurately adjusted the line.
National Championship Game: Texas vs. Alabama or Texas vs. Florida
Malinsky’s Line: Alabama (-3) or Florida (-6)
My take: Both numbers seem low and would likely be bet up quickly.
Right now, Texas hasn’t shown that it can play at a level to compete with Alabama or Florida.
But I don’t believe the Horns have played their best football yet, either. They’ve got some blossoming young playmakers on offense and a defense completely capable of matching up with Alabama’s or Florida’s offense.
If I could get Alabama at -3, I’d take it. Against Florida, I’d wait and try to get Texas +7.
Rose Bowl: Iowa vs. USC
Malinsky's line: UCS -10.5
My take: 172-67 – that’s the combined score of the Trojans’ last five meetings with the Big Ten, all victories and by an average margin of 21 points a game. Southern Cal was favored by an average of just over 10 points in those games.
The Trojans have been so dominant over the Big Ten, it almost makes me start thinking trap, especially when a fishy number like 10.5 is thrown out there.
I wouldn’t expect that number to sit that low for long, though. By kickoff, I don’t think it is unreasonable to think the Trojans could be laying 14 points. It would still be difficult for me to back the Hawkeyes.
Now, if the number dropped or even stayed the same, Iowa would start to interest me. A line moving against a huge public favorite like USC reeks of sharp action.
In the end, I don’t think I’d be able to get over this fact - With sheer talent USC overwhelms teams like Arkansas State and Northern Iowa. Iowa beats them with last-second blocked field goals and late defensive stands.
Orange Bowl: TCU vs. Miami
Malinksy’s line: TCU -2.5
My take: This number looks solid to me.
I’m drunk on Hurricane Kool-ade, so I’d be on the U, a rising program looking for a signature bowl victory to confirm its return to relevancy in college football.
Fiesta Bowl: Boise State vs. Oregon
Malinksy’s line: Boise State -4
My take: This line surprised me the most, and this rematch may be a little farfetched, but I wanted to give us a good mix of teams. Plus, I could see the Fiesta pairing the Broncos and Ducks for the hype factor, especially if LeGarrett Blount is reinstated.
I’d be on the Ducks.
Boise State has the fewest seniors in the nation. That’s going to catch up to them some time, but they just don’t play any one down the stretch that can test their manhood. (Maybe Nevada?)
The Broncos will end up undefeated and whine about not being in the National Championship Game then promptly get run over by the surging Ducks.
Sugar Bowl: Cincinnati vs. Alabama or Cincinnati vs. Florida
Malinsky’s line: Alabama (-11) or Florida (-14)
My take: These lines are tough. Everyone remembers Alabama’s uninspired performance against Utah in last year’s Sugar Bowl. Neither the Crimson Tide nor the Gators will be excited to be here, and Cincinnati is a very solid, well-coached team, much like Utah was last year.
But the Bearcats just don’t look big enough on both lines to hold up against Alabama or Florida.
In what would be Tebow’s last game, I’d have to take the Gators. And I can’t see Nick Saban letting what happened against Utah happen again. I’d take the chalk.
For a projected line on a possible SEC Championship Game between Florida and Alabama, check out this story.
Covers Community with Estes1717, who is 27-19, +55.4 units in college football this season.
Q: Give us your projected lines for the possible BCS bowl match-ups above:
A: Texas vs. Alabama (-6.5)
Iowa vs. USC (-10.5)
TCU vs. Miami (-3)
Boise State vs. Oregon (-3)
Cincinnati vs. Florida (-12)
Florida vs. Alabama (-2.5)
Q: Using those lines, which sides would you play?
A: USC (-10.5), TCU (+3) and Alabama (-6.5).
Q: As we head into the second half of the season, a lot of cappers believe lines get sharper and the game gets tougher. Do you agree?
A: Yes. I believe that the best line opportunities to bet come in the first two or three weeks of the season and that the dogs are the place to hone in on.
The early game opportunity is truer in college than the NFL. NFL lines become almost impossible to beat consistently after Week 5. You can find maybe one game per week. There are no unknowns in the NFL now.
In the NCAA, you still can't get a good measure of teams in one conference versus teams in another. A lot of conference games came very early in the season, when many teams were still finding their way with new personnel. I still have no idea as to how good or bad Penn State is. Non-conference games become much more important now, but there are fewer of them. Find 'em. Play 'em. You got as good a chance as anybody else.
One other thing, at mid season, you should focus on the good coaches. Not necessarily established coaches but up-and-coming coaches too. Find them. Teams with good coaching staffs continue to improve every week. Teams that do not improve are losing ground. That is your edge now.
OK, one more observation: conventional wisdom says underdogs in rivalry games beat the line. I think that is half true. I've seen a lot of rivalry dogs get blown away. The key is finding the dogs that play defense.
Q: Which three games jumped off this week’s college card at you?
A: Alabama -16 (Tide rolls), Arizona State +6.5 (just looks like an even match to me), TCU -2 (an upset is possible but odds are TCU wins, and if they win they cover. Defense.)