delasoul_iam says:
The fact that the Wings are a dog vs at team with a worse record made me take the Ducks.



Have no opinion on this game, but man, this reverse psychology shit is making some serious damage on this forum.For my self I can say: the best thing I done about my capping skills was to stop overthink games and see value as bad thing. It may let you look like a genius when you hit such a play, but be assured you will be on a losing path longterm.

What is so wrong with Wings opening as small dogs (+125)? Look at their road record (12-17), they cant make them faves based just on last game against Sharks. It just doesnt work that way. Then look at the Ducks home record, they won roughly 62% of their home games, they also won their last 8 home games (7 of them in regulation). Let me make it clear, it doesnt mean they win the next game because they won the last 8. But it does man they are playing well at home. And thats a fact which books have to take into account, they dont overthink things when setting lines. What is so strange about Ducks being a 58% (thats -135) fave against a team they seem to always play well at home a that they beat 4-1 at home just a month ago. These are the facts everyone should know before making statements about the lines.

Look at the Ottawa line, they won their last nine games and they own the Sabres which lost 5 of their last 7, still the Sens opened as +125 dogs (same as the Wings). Why dont you take the Sabres here? Why doesnt this line smells to you? See what I think? Well Ottawa won their last 5 road games (all in regulation) and now actually owns a solid road record (11-14, thats 44% and is exactly eqiuvalent to a +125 line!!). The first time they played in Buffalo, Ottawa was a +172 dog (equals a 36% chance of winning), despite winning last 6 h2h meetings, but at that time they had a 5-11 road record (31% wins). The books actually dont care so much about the h2h otherwise the Sens couldnt be +172 against Buffalo, let alone homedogs in their second meeting of the season. But the books dont overthink lines. Home/road records, and simple betting patterns corrections they use to make public teams even bigger faves than they should be are their main tools. Ottawa line is a lone exception to that tonight because they know Ottawa is on a roll and playing against somewhat struggling Sabres and should get a lot of action. If Ottawa wasnt on such a winning streak Sabres with their 18-10 home record would be a much bigger fave (I suppose around -170) no matter the fact Ottawa owns them since the lockout. The h2h between those two is actually our tool to beat the books as log as it works. Look at the last season, Ottawa took 5 of the 6 games, and still they were only small faves even at home (around -120)

PS150 says:
Dela, excellent write-up..Sens and the Under

faceoff says:
www.gamingtoday.com

K4ngur13 says:
Good Luck

delasoul_iam says:
Nothing personal, I just found it was funny. One can name a plenty of reasons to take the Ducks tonight, but that sure aint one of them to anyone betting seriously.

GL

delasoul_iam says:
I wrote a couple of other things as well, it seems you took the first sentence so personal that you are missing my point. Whatever...but I am a linesman as well on another hockey betting forum and to be true I think a linesman on a betting forum has some responsibilities and should stay away form making such statements Bad influence to young bettors, there is plenty of other stuff to learn before they should start talking about fishy lines. Its annoying it seems to become the basic capping approach here (Lipps where are you ?) There I think the linesman should jump in and set the things straight and not encourage that way of thinking, at least not before explaining the basics of oddsmaking and probabilty

GL man, I really wish you all the luck, you are doing a nice job keeping the forum clean nad running the goalies thread, but I hope its ok to actually write some useful stuff like couple of posts above and not only post in 100 threads and try to stay politically correct.

weeble5672 says:


The fact that I felt my opinion shouldn't be laughed at has nothing to do with me being a linesman...it had to do with me being a human being.

And I was with you right up until the point where you referred to my statment as "egregious".

At the risk of sounding sensitive, I will keep my opinion to myself from now on.

delasoul_iam says:
Very often I saw people come in her and post caps -290 Lock of the year. The thread became full of people rolling their heads and no one said everything about that. Weebs statement was funny to me so I did the same. Dont see the difference. The biggest problem I see here is that the discussion goes about respest, and not about the other stuff I wrote. I see new people joining the forum and they immediately start talking about fishy lines. There should be someone here to explain how the books came to that number. Instead many veteran members encourage that approach. The funny thing is the most if not all cappers in this forum having succesful seasons cap the games without overthinking, thats something to think about.

faceoff says:

Weeb, I was not referring to you about being a linesman..I was referring to delasoul, who said he was a linesman.... You misunderstood my point...I am in total agreement that you or anyone else should not be laughed at....

Delasoul... You seem to assume alot...... You can't tell someone how to cap unless they ask you specifically... That's my opinion... One day I may cap and the next I either don't have the time or too tired, so I go by instinct.... That's my method and I've been doing this for a long time.... LOnger than the age of many of the Hockey fans in here....I certainly would not tell anyone how to spend their money....

Anyway...  Good Luck ........... It is one thing to pick teams and explain why...But it is totally a different thing to lay money down and make those bets........ 

OH... and Weebs... Good choice on Anaheim yesterday.... For what ever reasoning you used........