fresh4lyph's Blog

Posted Sunday, February 02, 2014 04:05 AM

Peyton Manning

Peyton Manning

Denver -2

LARGE



Posted Tuesday, January 21, 2014 02:20 PM

us vs world system

in games where > 65% are on the away team take the home team

#1 no favs > 5 point favs (this is mostly and underdog situation, so rarely will you see a fav of more then a couple points, but if for some reason the team is fav by 5 or more, its not a  play

#2 teams that won final game of a road trip in their previous game are disqualified from the system

so yesterday plays would have been:

hawks

today Utah is a play, let's see how this does the rest of the season




Posted Sunday, January 19, 2014 02:58 AM

Celtics @ Magic

Celtics beat Magic 10 straight
Magic 1-9 ATS L10
Team Experts 5-0 on Boston
67% on Boston
Orlando is 0-12 without Vucevic :/ that one hurts, not going to lie

....none the less, the Pick is ORLANDO, LARGE
................Gut check time


Posted Wednesday, January 15, 2014 03:25 PM

1/15

Success in this world has more to do with discipline & money management rather then picking games.  What I'm after is statistical validation.  I would like to know that I pick games at a high enough % that the odds are, whenever I place a bet, that I will be profiting in the long run.  That is statistical validation.  One can not reach that point without a discipline approach, and consistent at that.  Problem with me is that I don't like being discipline, I like going for it.  I like long shots, small risk and big pay outs.  But I don't have statistical validation.  The key for me right now is to keep meticulous records of the bets I place so that I know if I profit of ML parlays or not.  That is the only way I will know for sure if I  should bet them or stick to straight games.  I know they are fun, but do they win.  

Last night was bad.  Starting with my decision to bet (on a tuesday)  ((I have vowed to myself many times to not bet on tuesdays))  Pulled trigger on knicks with the trap line of the day.  I was the sucker that fell for it.  Pulled trigger on memphis, great game, great pick.. ((stevenp)).  1-1 is not the problem, I chased with knicks 2H and then again with Lakers 2H thinking the Cavs were not capable of putting games together on the road.  Lou Deng carried the team on his back 2H and they took the game.  Left me with 145 left in my account.   I wa... [More]

Posted Monday, January 13, 2014 12:51 AM

1/12

Laid off NBA tonight, liked Spurs.  Liked over in cavs/sac (which lost).  Felt like it was Sac's game but stupidly believed in the Cavs & Kyrie Irving.  Don't like T-wolves vs good teams and don't particularly care for Kevin Love at this Juncture.. he is on a bad stretch right now & in the wake of calling out your team mates after shooting 4-20?  Wow..  Ur a bum, im mad i didn't make money off of the spurs tonight.  I used to love betting twolves getting points vs spurs coz they used to play them tough.. but the tide is always turning... and the spurs are going to be consistently efficient and the twolves have a superstar ego issue right now, should have stepped on his throat.  I liked memphis as well, was close but the covered vs Hawks and have been playing pretty well.  Hawks are 1-6 vs western opponents on the road.  

Tomorrow i gotta say I like the Knicks.. I have been betting against the Suns since Bledsoe went out and let me tell you, they do not go down easy.  But Knicks are rolling right now and they don't want to feel like losers.  They want to correct there record, especially at home, BAD.  Playing much better , better energy now, in a high energy building.  Win vs spurs turned everything around.  They Shouldn't have lost since... 

Now I also was waiting for the line on the Rockets game.  I like Rockets vs Boston but always used to like boston in the past and would ... [More]

Posted Saturday, January 11, 2014 11:53 PM

1/11 recap & thoughts

the play was $200 3-team parlay.

raptors -7.5 (b2)   knicks -3.5 (b1.5)  dallas -7.5 (b1)


I can tell you my mistake right away in an otherwise strong night capping.   I liked Dallas the previous night, didn't bet them, they won easily @ New Orleans.  There were on a home & home and New Orleans is down 3 starters (holliday, evens & anderson)  I have made the mistake before of chasing a team that i missed a win on in there next game.  That is what i did here and i did it blindly without checking that it was both teams 4 games in 5 nights and I am laying points with the older team.  Furthermore I heard somone on the radio say he predicted it to be a close game, which it was... its hard to blow a team out twice in a row i guess.  I could have easily took Denver but didn't know to drop Dallas, felt confident because New Orleans was so depleted.   So i missed out on a really nice payout.  My team was up 7 late and then it just fell apart.. a missed shot , a terrible foul call on Anthony davis.  A stupid turnover by dirk followed by 2 misses and i lsot my chance to cover a -7.5.  I had an oppurtunity to hedge with a $200 half time bet that would have landed right on the full game spread and passed.  would have saved me 200 i would have saved 100 hedging on clippers lakers the night before whne i was getting 15.5 and was down 18 at half with a pk 2h line.  So its another step backwards on ... [More]

Posted Friday, December 27, 2013 10:57 PM

Golden State Warriors

Lead the NBA in fouls

Posted Friday, December 27, 2013 10:00 PM

Toronto Raptors

Better on the road then at home..

<<Valenchunas getting ate up by Barnarni and Chandler>>

Derozan good at times, not great..

Salmons filling a nice role playing solid.  

Lowry is better then Vasquez but Vasquez can contribue from time to time.

Amir Johnson is great.

6-3 since happy trade, Lowry putting up much better #'s




Posted Monday, October 25, 2010 02:17 PM

Check this out, Interesting Trend I thought of

Check this out...teams that have played the saints the weak before are 0-7 ATS.. 


Maybe its reverse karma from last season they overdrafted their "good karma" bank account and now there suckiness is so contagious it latches on to their oppents who are now "cursed" team for one week and will always lose the following weak with the "we just played the saints, and touched them" curse that seams to be going around the league as of late.. Maybe we should ride this pony into the promiseland!!!  Who's coming with me???


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User: fresh4lyph
Joined: September 2010
Location: Pennsylvania
Team: New York Jets
Occupation: Management

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