gamebreaker22's Blog

Posted Sunday, March 11, 2012 10:49 AM


Sunday's Card

HUGE PLAY ON Florida State+6 as the underdog against North Carolina. The Seminoles are currontly getting 5 1/2 points here in Vegas and offshore.

HUGE PLAY ON XAVIER - 3  After an incredible run through the A10 Tournament, it's time for this dream season to come to an end for St. Bonny's. Look, no one is more impressed with what they have done in this confcrence tourney than me, but I've seen this happen all too often in these types of tourneys... when a "sleeper" team from the middle of the pack gets hot at the right time, wins their way into the Championship game, but eventually runs out of gas.

St. Bonny's clearly weren't expected to get this far. Most "experts" expected Temple to face off against St. Louis... or maybe UMass and Xavier despite the fact that the Bonnies finished 4th place in the regular season standings. No one believed they were that good... including me.

Let's also not forget the Bonnies' opponent today... Xavier. I have been telling people for weeks to not count these guys out. At the midway point of the season they were being talked about as a potential Elite 8 team, but after the brawl with Cincy that resulted in a ton of suspensoons the Musketeers were never the same. They limped into the conference tourney and some thought they might play themselves out of the Big Dance altogether.

I never gave up on them. I still believe they have the talent to go to the Elite... [More]

Posted Friday, March 09, 2012 09:22 AM

Friday's First 2 Play's Indiana & St Louis

HUGE PLAY ON INDIANA -1--- Coming back with another HUGE winner in conference tournament action as I believe the Indiana Hoosiers have something to prove and might be a good bet to pull some upsets in this Big 10 Tournament and could potentially win the whole thing.

Think about this... why do teams from the Big 12 always complain that Kansas and Missouri have an unfair, home-court advantage in this tournament when it's played at Kemper Arena in Kansas City? The same reason teams in the Big 10 are going to complain this year than Indiana has an advantage playing this tournament in Indianapolis. Did you notice the advantage they had Thursday vs. Penn State? It was 8 to 1 in terms of fans and it's probably going to be at least 4 to 1 in favor of Indiana today.

Yes, I realize it's not a true home game, but it's close enough considering the fan advantage they'll have. Then when you factor in the revenge they will be seeking for a 57-50 road loss at Wisconsin earlier this year, I like the Hoosiers more and more. Indiana took a 27-25 halftime lead to the locker room, but they folded down the stretch... mainly because the referees interfered and called double the amount of fouls on Indiana that they called on Wisconsin... but then again, that always seems to happen at the Kohl Center.

In the end, Indiana shot 5 of 10 from the free throw line while Wisconsin hit 15 of 19... game, set, match. Neither team shot well from outside and they b... [More]

Posted Thursday, March 08, 2012 07:47 PM

Thursday Picks 3-8-12

IOWA STATE BIG PLAY --- Top play of the day on the Iowa State Cyclones as a small underdog against the Texas Longhorns. A little confused here as to why the 3rd-seeded Cyclones are not the favorites against #6 Texas, but I'll take it.

I understcnd that the Cyclones weren't a very good team away from home, but neither was Texas. In fact, these two teams owned identical 4-7 records away from home, both allowing around 66 points per game while scoring around 73. Honestly, when you look at these two teams on paper they have a TON of similarities up and down the lineup.

Texas plays slightly better defense and shoots better from the free throw line, but the Cyclones are slightly better in scoring and FG percentage, but decidedly better from outside the arc. They also own two big factors in tonight's game.

They are better on a neutral floor and way better ATS. In neutral site games, Texas is 0-2 while Iowa State is 2-0... and the numbers aren't even close. Iowa State allowed under 60 points per game in their two neutral site games while Texas surrendered 88 per game. Big difference.

Iowa State is also 18-8-1 ATS for the season while Texas is 9-16-1. Not only that, but Texas now has some injuries to deal with. Clint Chapman is questionable with an ankle injury while Alexis Wangmene is out for the rest of the season with a wrist injury. Those are two starters for the shallow Longhorns. Iowa State is 100% healthy.

Cyclones win ... [More]

Posted Thursday, March 08, 2012 02:04 PM

Thursday's 1st of 4 large picks & analysis

Tonight's Winner's...

Big play on the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets plus 6 points against the Miami-Florida Hurricanes. 

I've watched these two schools play extensively this season, and I can tell you the minute I saw this line I immedictely knew the 'Canes were in trouble. Why you ask? Because it's simply too easy to play Miami in this spot. We all saw the 'Canes thrash the Yellow Jackets in their lone meeting this season - in Atlanta no less - and now all we have to do is lay roughly 6 points to play them again here? Plus, when you factor in how Miami stomped Boston College this past Saturday, I knew average bettors were going to be all over Miami at this price. Big mistake.

So the question remains: how does Georgia Tech defy the odds and keep this game within the number? Well first off, the game it at Philips Arena, homecourt of the Yellow Jackets, which should serve to motivate them and ensure a very friendly crowd. Beating a team twice on its home floor in the same season is easier said than done. We all know the Jackets were awful on the road this season, but having this one at home means no travel and its the same rims they've shot on their entire career.

Second, Miami is not the most consistent team, and this line tells me the oddsmakers are expecting a letdown following their blowout win over BC on Saturday. We all saw Miami lose at Maryland and at NC State, and in those games a couple things became clear: Miami is highl... [More]

Posted Wednesday, March 07, 2012 09:01 AM



UConn is a very good basketball team that is getting hot at exactly the right time. They've won their last two games in convincing fashion, and it's no coincidence that HC Jim Calhoun came back two games ago, is it? This team just plays better when their "general" is roaming the sidelines.

Calhoun helped turn an "average 4-seed" in the Big Dance into a National Champion with incredible game plans against teams like San Diego State, Kentucky and eventually Butler. Like him or not, Jim Calhoun is a great basketball mind and will be a big reason the Huskies push for another Big East Championship.

Honestly, I'm not sure if this play is more pro-UConn or anti-West Virginia... so it's probably a combination of both. Let's start with UConn.

Clearly this is not the type of season they were expecting after their Championship run last year. They returned four players who averaged over 15 minutes per game, but losing Kemba Walker hasn't been easy to overcome. And then you add in the injury to PG Ryan Boatright and the team really had no floor general, no consistency. Oh sure, they have plenty of talent with guys like Jeremy Lamb and Shabazz Napier, Alex Oriakhi, and others, but no one was considered the leader like Kemba Walker was last year.

Boatright has slowly taken that role and run with it, scoring 19 points, dishing out 7 assists and grabbing 10 boards in Tue... [More]

Posted Tuesday, March 06, 2012 03:47 PM


HUGE PLAY ON--- VALPO --- Top play of the day on the Crusaders in a home game over the Detroit Titans. This line has quickly gone up from -1 to -2 1/2, but what baffles me is that Vegas is telling us Detroit would be a one- or two-point favorite on a neutral floor and I think that's flat out crazy.

Valpo already beat Detroit in both meetings this year... once in Indiana and once in Detroit. Both wins were by single digits but both games Valpo clearly was the better team, even if the score didn't indiccte it.

In fact, Valpo has owned the Titans over the last few years, winning and covering the last five meetings... and not only that, but they've covered eight of the last 10 meetings with one push dating back to 2009.

The fact that any one team in the conference gets to host even one game is ludicrous, in my opinion, but my opinion doesn't count so I have to handicap these games based on the cards I'm dealt. If Valpo gets to host these games, then far be it from me to hold that against them. They're a healthy 14-2 SU at home (8-6 ATS) and 15-4 in conference, and having already beaten the Titans twice this year, I think this line is a tad ridiculous.

Valpo enters this game having beaten Butler (the defending National runner-up the last two years) twice in a row by double digits... once to end the regular season and once to start the conference tournacment. They're 6-2-1 ATS over their last nine home games and they know they probably ... [More]

Posted Tuesday, March 06, 2012 12:29 PM

Underdog of Tuesday 3-6-12 Pick!

Taking Portland State +6 over Weber State. Payback time!!! If not at least a cover.

Posted Tuesday, March 06, 2012 12:28 PM

Underdog of Today's Pick!

Taking Portland State +6 over Weber State. Payback time!!! If not at least a cover.

Posted Monday, March 05, 2012 03:36 PM


HUGE PLAY TONIGHT ON TOLEDO ROCKETS --- Top play of the day on the Toledo Rockets over Miami, Oh in the first round of the MAC Conference tournament.

The MAC, unlike a lot of confcrences, allows teams to host games in the early stages before going to a neutral site. The funny thing is I forgot this fact and I thought Vegas was listing Toledo as a two-point favorite because the game was on a neutral court. Wrong!!

It's in Toledo's back yard and they're still only a two-point favorite. I'm not sure why, but I'll take it. For starters, Toledo is a lot hotter than Miami, Oh recently, winning six of their last seven games with the only loss coming at Northern Illinois. Miami, on the other hand, has dropped three straight, five of their last six and six of their last eight. And the only games they're winning are home games.

The Redhawks are a pathetic 2-13 SU on the road, scoring just 58 points per game while allowing 67. And while Toledo is only 9-8 at home (they're actuaclly decent on the road), but they score 72 points per contest while allowing around 69. No, it's not a large margin of victory on average, but because Miami is so bad I really like my chances.

These two have met only once this year, and Toledo went to Miami and came away with a two-point win as 8 1/2-point dogs. Crazy. Toledo is better than Miami in scoring offense, field goal and three-point percentage, free throw percentage, rebounds, turno... [More]

Posted Wednesday, January 19, 2011 04:31 PM


Today's Play of the Month:

La Lakers -3 over Dallas Mavericks tonight!

Good-luck to us all!!!

Posted Sunday, November 02, 2008 11:05 AM


Minnesota -5 over Houston
NY Jets vs Buffalo under 43
Green Bay +4 over Tennessee
St Louis +3 over Arizona( Upset of the day! Big on Moneyline)
Miami over Denver (MONEY LINE)
 Oakland over Atlanta (Money Line)

Posted Sunday, October 05, 2008 11:47 AM

My Picks of The Day!

Put everything you can on Sf49ers +3 over NEngland! $5,000.00 minimum! (MY NFL GAME OF THE MONTH)

Philly-6.5 over Washington (Big) 3 grand minimum

Seattle +7 over NY Giants $3,000.00 minimum

Detriot +3.5 over Chicago $1,000.00 minimum

Houston +3 over Indy $3,000.00 minimum

Atlanta +3.5 over Green Bay $3,000.00 minimum


See You At The Party Tonight!


Posted Sunday, August 17, 2008 05:41 PM

Pro Football Evening Plays of the day!

POD Parlay:
Tampa Bay -3 over New England
Tampa Bay vs New England under 34
Single Plays:
Tampa Bay -3 over New England
Detroit vs Cincinati under 35.5

Posted Saturday, April 26, 2008 01:15 PM




User: gamebreaker22
Joined: June 2007
Location: Arizona
Team: Dallas Cowboys

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