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Covers Bloodbath. Confirmation Bias

By gatornation | View all Posts
Posted Monday, October 24, 2011 02:08 PM

49 comments

Here it is guys- I am going to the game tonight and can't wait!!! Here is my problem with Covers...Confirmation Bias. You see CB is a tendency for people to favor information that confirms what they think will happen. So in the case of the game tonight, most of Covers (yes...you) thinks that Jags will get pounded due to recent history along with stats from so long ago it doesn't even apply.

The reality is that the rookie QB Gabbert is getting better (not worse), the defense is not as bad as they look on paper, and it is a home game on MNF. The problem is that the Jags have score only about 10 ppg over the last 5 losses compared to the Ravens almost 34 ppg in their 4 wins.

So I agree that the Jags will likely not win tonight. Confirmation Bias tells you that you should take the Ravens...but up until what line??? Is it relative to the opening line or have you capped the game at 10, 11, 12, 13... If you are that good, congrats. I think most of us know that the Ravens win tonight. Anyone could argue taking the points or laying the points. Here is my view:

The Jags will run the ball tonight and run it well. I know that Ray "Murderer" Lewis will be ever present and yapping his brains off...and I know that they are dominating. The Jags have the 10th rated rushing attack and will look to RUN first. They will have limited success but the clock will run too. The Jags are in the top 10 in pass defense as well...I see the Ravens running all over the Jags tonight.

Here is the point. I don't give a shit if you take either side- you can find a stat to make you feel good about pushing the button or calling your man. Both teams will play defense and both teams will run the ball. That is who they are. I hope my Jags make a game of it, but either way it will be a LOW SCORING AFFAIR with two top 10 defensive teams. That is their game and that is what they will come to do.

LARGE PLAY UNDER 20 FIRST HALF

LARGE PLAY UNDER 38 GAME

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shrimp1958 says:

10/24/11 02:10PM

If this game was at 4 o'clock on Sunday the Jags might stand a chance....

But on MNF ....with the Cards on deck,a focused effort will probably result in trainwreck for Gabbert....

MJD will have issues finding holes inside against Ngata and Cody,then he'll try a get the edge,the problem there,is the speed of the defense won't allow that either...

This will get ugly early 4 the Jags..Mercy is the only thing that might save them 2night...but don't count on it...

VietUSBet says:

10/24/11 02:11PM

Interesting..

TomE says:

10/24/11 02:15PM

I agree with your comments overall. I expect that Gabbert will get better and better throughout the season, but tonight is a very bad situation facing him. You completely lost me when you said the Jags will run the ball tonight and run it well. What you should have said is that they will "try" to run the ball, but unfortunately Balt gives up only 76 ypg on the ground. Co-incidentally (or not), the Vegas prop on MJD is 72.5 yards over/under. Nothing in that kind of run production tonight for Jack is going to get it done. Go back and look to see how every opposing RB fared against Balt. No one has run against the Ravens yet. Your best chance for the under is if Balt completely shuts down Jack (very likely). Problem: that's basically what happened last night to Colts @ Indy....but the total still hit a whopping 69 points!!!!!
Throw in Balt's ball hawking ways (Balt +8 TO and Jack -2 TO).....once Jack falls behind in this game, MJD will be less of a factor and then I can see perhaps a defensive TD or two for Balt via INT or FF run back (14 sacks on Gabbert already). That I think is what may crash and burn your "under" expectation.
Best of luck though. I hope you have a good time at the game!

Getty3 says:

10/24/11 02:17PM

The Jags simply don't have playmakers beyond MJD anywhere on this roster. Their defense as you mentioned is certainly improved from a year ago. Factor in the always conservative playcalling of Jacksonville, with a spirited effort on defense, and the under seems like the right play.

shark_apreza says:

10/24/11 02:18PM

i agree ---up to some point

for me

as ia wrote in my post--i think tonight is either Baltimore -10 or what ever the number or the under--anything else will be

BOL

HawaiianWarrior says:

10/24/11 02:32PM

I am teasing balti with the under......Of course the only thing we cannot account for that may drive the total OVER......Is the intangibles, defense scoring, special teams scoring......GL BRO

DamnTheMan says:

10/24/11 02:35PM

gatornation says:

10/24/11 02:58PM

I love my Jags- they will lose tonight... whatever...get's us another top 5 pick. All I am saying is that if you have not watched the Jags play this year and you are just looking at scores and records, then STFU.

Jags play better on D this year and they are built to run and throw short passes to big WRs and TEs. The Ravens are good...they are really good, on both sides of the ball. Tonight will be about the run and defenses. The only way this goes over IMO is if they pick 6 the Jags a couple of times...highly unlikely, not because Gabbert is great, but because the Jags will not put him in that position. Clock control- my guess is people will get bored watching this low scoring affair.

18-21 pts Balt

7-13 pts Jags This is a good place to cap the game IMO.

CalBear says:

10/24/11 03:02PM

Lean under myself. GL

Greyhound says:

10/24/11 03:07PM

5 out of every 6 games the team that wins the game , covers the spread. That's 83%.

Look at yesterday, only one team that won didn't cover the spread and that was Green Bay. There was also a push. SEA at CLE.

KOAJ says:

10/24/11 03:19PM

i watched baltimore's defensive line against the Jets and they destroyed them

they will do the same to baltimore. one thing the ravens do well is not fuck around with bad teams

personally i only root for boldin to keep my 6 point fantasy lead over my opponent with MJD tonight

puttsbreezy94 says:

10/24/11 03:21PM

baltimore-4 and over 32.5 teaser!!!!

Greyhound says:

10/24/11 03:27PM

102 games so far this year. Here's the 17 teams that WON but didn't cover the point spread. 13 out of those 17 times the spread was 6 points or more.

SD -- -9 -- Home VS MIN -- WinnerSU -- 7 -- LoserPS -- -2
NYJ -- -6.5 -- Home VS DAL -- WinnerSU -- 3 -- LoserPS -- -3.5
WAS -- -4.5 -- Home VS ARI -- WinnerSU -- 1 -- LoserPS -- -3.5
BUF -- -3.5 -- Home VS OAK -- WinnerSU -- 3 -- LoserPS -- -0.5
GB -- -10.5 -- Road VS CAR -- WinnerSU -- 7 -- LoserPS -- -3.5
DEN -- -3.5 -- Home VS CIN -- WinnerSU -- 2 -- LoserPS -- -1.5
TEN -- -7 -- Home VS DEN -- WinnerSU -- 3 -- LoserPS -- -4
SD -- -14 -- Home VS KC -- WinnerSU -- 3 -- LoserPS -- -11
PIT -- -10.5 -- Road VS IND -- WinnerSU -- 3 -- LoserPS -- -7.5
DAL -- -3.5 -- Home VS WAS -- WinnerSU -- 2 -- LoserPS -- -1.5
CHI -- -7 -- Home VS CAR -- WinnerSU -- 5 -- LoserPS -- -2
ATL -- -6 -- Road VS SEA -- WinnerSU -- 2 -- LoserPS -- -4
TB -- -10 -- Home VS IND -- WinnerSU -- 7 -- LoserPS -- -3
NO -- -6.5 -- Road VS CAR -- WinnerSU -- 3 -- LoserPS -- -3.5
PIT -- -12.5 -- Home VS JAC -- WinnerSU -- 4 -- LoserPS -- -8.5
NE -- -6.5 -- Home VS DAL -- WinnerSU -- 4 -- LoserPS -- -2.5
GB -- -10 -- Road VS MIN -- WinnerSU -- 6 -- LoserPS -- -4

ZonaCats says:

10/24/11 03:38PM

pick the winner in NFL single-digit spreads.

double digit spreads are different.

Maverick11 says:

10/24/11 03:57PM

THere are other players on the Ravens Defense who will stop the run other than Lewis. Also...it has been almost 17 years since the guy was charged with the murder, clearly was innocent...and is a great standing citizen.

Greyhound says:

10/24/11 03:58PM

I think this is every spread -9.5 or higher this year. The record of the favorite is those games is.......

11-2 straight up

5-8 against the spread

PIT __ -13.5 __ Home VS SEA __ WinnerSU __ 24 __ WinnerPS __ 10.5
GB __ -10.5 __ Road VS CAR __ WinnerSU __ 7 __ LoserPS __ -3.5
SD __ -14 __ Home VS KC __ WinnerSU __ 3 __ LoserPS __ -11
PIT __ -10.5 __ Road VS IND __ WinnerSU __ 3 __ LoserPS __ -7.5
PHI __ -9.5 __ Home VS SF __ LoserSU __ -1 __ LoserPS __ -10.5
GB __ -12 __ Home VS DEN __ WinnerSU __ 26 __ WinnerPS __ 14
TB __ -10 __ Home VS IND __ WinnerSU __ 7 __ LoserPS __ -3
NYG __ -10 __ Home VS SEA __ LoserSU __ -11 __ LoserPS __ -21
GB __ -14 __ Home VS STL __ WinnerSU __ 21 __ WinnerPS __ 7
PIT __ -12.5 __ Home VS JAC __ WinnerSU __ 4 __ LoserPS __ -8.5
GB __ -10 __ Road VS MIN __ WinnerSU __ 6 __ LoserPS __ -4
DAL __ -14 __ Home VS STL __ WinnerSU __ 27 __ WinnerPS __ 13
NO __ -13.5 __ Home VS IND __ WinnerSU __ 55 __ WinnerPS __ 41.5

vi3t4lif3 says:

10/24/11 04:21PM

how about the spread from 9.5 to 10.5 ............. please find for me a Fav winner.............. and point it out for me?

All spread from 9.5 to 10.5 ............. under dog cover all......... starting regular season week 1..............

choiOi says:

10/24/11 04:24PM

you stand corrected...they are looking pass jags, cards...it's the road trip to Pitt is what on the plate.

Greyhound says:

10/24/11 04:27PM

Yep, looks like you're right, 0 for 6 against the spread.

joeylazaretti says:

10/24/11 04:32PM

Just like Pitt was looking past Cards to NE?

gatornation says:

10/24/11 04:51PM

Most of the replies are talking about the line and my entire point of starting this thread is that confirmation bias is strong today in taking the Ravens. I would stay AWAY from the line and hit the under as hard as you can.

TomE says:

10/24/11 05:10PM

Yep, you nailed it on the head. Ravens don't care about this game or next weeks game because they are only worried about Pit in two weeks from now.
Oh, and they don't give a rat's ass that tonight will be a prime time game with the whole world watching as well. They already know they are good so why should they care if they lay an egg on Prime Time on MNF? I mean, such a minor point as a huge Prime Time venue to strut their stuff means nothing compared to looking past two opponents! After all, those Ravens are not even human so they are way beyond mere mortal motivational considerations such as showing the world what's what...... Yep, and Harbaugh is a horrible coach and there's no way that guy is going to have his team focused and ready to go.... Now that I think about it, I don't see how their team leaders will be pumped up either...Ray Lewis is a dud. He couldn't get "up" if he was wired to 10,000 helium balloons...

Yeah, you completely convinced me!

What planet did you say you hail from?
Your posts just get more and more ridiculous. Stop it please! They say it pays to advertise but I don't think they were thinking about advertising stupidity......

TomE says:

10/24/11 05:31PM

Gator, fine.
You know what would be really cool? Some illumination on your part regarding the "Confirmation Bias". So, Confirmation Bias is the kiss of death for the biased team? What kind of numbers do you have in your study showing the link between CB and ATS Covers, Dr. Gator? After all, it IS the "entire point" of your thread, how come you don't say a single word regarding the implication or value of CB? You have some statistics to support the CB factor? My guess is that you have these stats and percentages all worked out and at your finger-tips as why else would you make such a big deal out of it?
Enlighten us, Dr. Gator!

All kidding aside,
I hope you have a really good time at the game tonight!

WilliamMunny says:

10/24/11 05:36PM

I agree Jack D isnt bad but Jack O sucks I dont care if gabbert is getting better he will be facing one of the best Ds in the NFL. Also you cant run on this D they are 3rd the NFL in run D Jack is 14th

27-10 thank me later this wont be close let me guess you took Indy last night.

iceman67 says:

10/24/11 06:24PM

kmoney85 says:

10/24/11 07:54PM

These teams show up for MNF

OVER 19.5 1H

OVER 7.5 1Q

gatornation says:

10/24/11 08:06PM

Last post. Eating a burger and sipping a cool beer outside the stadium. Hope we all cash, since we are now all on the under. TomE, not biting. I am in too good of a mood to talk stats...but how did ya know my field? Hehe.

See you guys after we cash under first half and under game.

gatornation says:

10/24/11 08:09PM

And there is no correlation between CB and ATS wagering. CB is an individual characteristic of the wager itself- in that we select a side, for example, and then find stats to confirm our own play. This typically does not account for the actual line,but only to support the team selected.

Fuck it. Go Jags (and may it be an ugly low scoring game).

gatornation says:

10/24/11 09:28PM

Nice start! On track boys. Running and defense. Under under under.

WilliamMunny says:

10/25/11 04:04PM

you had this one from jump....i was wrong nice call

bets2win says:

10/24/11 11:41PM

one of the BEST writeups on the forum, WELL DONE!

I wish i was with ya! i took the square/sucker bet and took Baltimore

gatornation says:

10/24/11 10:30PM

Thanks Dorian. Under 39 upcoming. It's a great atmosphere here. The D has been good all year. Careful of taking the short line on Balt second half- jags a 2nd half team. Just saying.

gatornation says:

10/24/11 11:35PM

Walking out now. Great night. More to come! Go Jags!!!!!

gatornation says:

10/24/11 09:41PM

I can smell under 20 large. Ad my team is takin care of business. Love it.

gatornation says:

10/24/11 09:51PM

You got it! :)

Game is going perfectly. Sorry Joes.

gatornation says:

10/24/11 10:22PM

gatornation says:

10/25/11 07:10AM

Thanks guys. Killed the book tonight. Let's all get some this week.

gatornation says:

10/25/11 08:17AM

It is easy. Took 30mn to get out of downtown last night. Go to a game when it's cooler like now and you will love it. Cheers

gatornation says:

10/26/11 04:17PM

Thanks guys- nbd. Have a nice card for Saturday and Sunday. Lit it up on my Troy cover last night. Will post to college tomorrow and NFL on Friday.

Florida/UGAy is going to be a great game- look for the Gators to cover +3 first half large. UGAy will be without some defensive starters first half and they are battle tested.

DORIAN07 says:

10/24/11 10:25PM

Nice call Gator

DAWGPRINT says:

10/24/11 09:33PM

I disagree with you completely!

Jags win outright!

DAWGPRINT says:

10/25/11 07:14AM

told you - you were wrong...lmao.

jk man great game!
Is it easy to get in an out of the stadium down there? I wouldn't mind going to a game there sometime!

SykesSystem says:

10/24/11 11:53PM

Nice win bro

NOboy says:

10/24/11 11:38PM

your post led me to look deep for some percentages and it really helped solidfy my plays. this game was my make it or break it plays.

made a play on jags +10, jags +6.5 fh, under 20 fh, under 39.

appreciate the insight bro!

K4ngur13 says:

10/24/11 09:45PM

covers blootbath

allboutmoney says:

10/24/11 11:47PM

Nice write up Gator - Have Jax on the game and 2h... 2 min to go...

dantheman34 says:

10/25/11 05:04PM

ok i have respect for anyone trying to make money in the game. i mean i am too but and i cant preach enough about it. STOP PLAYING TEASERS!!! you still have to win 2 bets and it's only even money. why? it's the worst type of bet to make. Wheather you want to admit it or not the final score very often the line is covered by 6 or more points including over unders. How many people were talking about their teasers w/baltimore and lost. so many!!! I will tell you again use the pleaser not the teaser and always back it up with a parlay. get your odds good people. I played a 5 game pleaser at 9.52 to win 1000. i did not win but i still would have lost if i used the teaser so if your going to win or lose either way why not take 100-1 with 5 games. for those who dont know a pleaser you GIVE 6-8 points more and in everysingle nfl game one side pleased or the total pleased. get your odds i will tell you again. i pleased these (my wins)falcons, chiefs (my losses) greenbay who was up 16 late, rams just a horrible bet, and under 37 wash/car who had a 6-3 score at the half then blew up the score and in fact pleased on the over interestingly enough. I'm just saying dowhatchalike but i like to please never tease. saints, cowboys, under for cleveland, usc, and mich state all pleased too and 4 games is still 50-1. what are the odds on 4 team teaser? may not be a quarter of that, just saying.

TooL2424 says:

10/25/11 06:00PM

Very impressive!!!!

MrBogey says:

10/25/11 02:55AM

Good call gator and nice to see that you basically ignored the smack talking TOME and kept it positive. Stick to handicapping games TOME, it is what you do best and we can all benefit from it. We are all too old for this kind of negative sarcasm.... U/39 2U

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