happy's Play's for Today

Cleveland St. +3 +135 m/l. .. like yesterday, the Pac 10 is done.

Pitt -8.5 - Their nerves and cobwebs are gone from Friday. OK Stata doesn't match up well with this tough, physical team.

Mich St. -4. Like the SEC, kiss the Pac 10 goodbye today

Bama/Utah

Alabama a 9 point favorite with the total of 45.5 and I believe the Tide will cover the number. Alabama got a run through of the spread offense by Florida and they've got 10 times the O as Utah. Also, when it comes to prep time, Saban is a major stud. Saban’s team led by a combined score of 94-20 at the half. Against super-fast Florida in TY’s SEC championship, Bama overcame a 17-10 deficit at the half to lead 20-17 in the fourth quarter before Tim Tebow’s extraordinary heroics.

On the other hand, Utah will have a hard time, as did many other teams, containing Alabama's wicked running game with RBs Glen
Coffee, Mark Ingram & Roy Upchurch pounding out a combined 2399 yards and 5.8 ypc. 6-4 frosh Julio Jones (51 recs.) is likely to be the best WR Utah has faced all season. And while QB J.P. Wilson (57.7%) is not sensational, he has learned how to care for the ball (only 6 ints.). CB Javier Arenas (2 PR TDs) is one of the top return men in the country, helping the Tide tie for the lead in defense & STs TDs TY with eight.

NFL POY

THIS IS MY NFL PLAY OF THE YEAR:

ATLANTA +3 AT MINNESOTA.

WITH TAVARIS BACK IN THERE, THEY WILL LOSE OUTRIGHT.

Pre Bowl Games Selections

This doesn't count for anything, but I looked at the lines and there are a few I like on the surface. Until I do some more research, I'm leaning toward the folowing:

Navy +3. This team has been competitive all year.

Arizona - 3. Stoops has to win this game to keep him in spades. Also, BYU probably will come into this with a bad attitude

TCU -2.5 Boise St. will have a difficult time scoring against these guys. I'm also certain TCU's coach is harping on the fact of what Boise did a few years ago against Oklahoma

Florida St. -5. Wisconsin has been marginal at best all year.

NC State +7. This team has been a covering machine and Rutgers isn't worth laying 7 imho

Northwestern +13.5 I know the Wildcats will be ecstatic to be there and I question if Mizzou is going to get up for this game

OK State -3. This is a step down in class for OSU and too big of a leap up for Oregon

Minnesota/Kansas over 57. Two average defenses usually spell a high scoring affair

Iowa -3.5 ... potbs.. play o' the bowl season Normal 0 false false false EN-US X-NONE X-NONE MicrosoftInternetExplorer4 ... [More]

all the games of we 12.07.08

I'm giving you my picks and analysis of every game this week. I'll probably only play between 2 - 5 of them with Rutgers and Oklahoma being my top 2


Wednesday, December 3rd

UL Lafayette -4.5 vs. Middle Tennessee

I'll pass this game. My brother, about 100 years ago, played center for MTSU and in his Frosh year, the starting guy tore his acl on the 2nd play of the season and he was put in and ended up finishing the entire year starting for them. That first game was quite an indoctrination - he had to tackle Two Tall Jones the entire game and TT beat the hell out my bro...

Thursday, December 4th

Rutgers -10.5 vs. Louisville

Rutgers on a killer roll these days peeling off 5 straight wins and covering the last 7. This will be the final regular season home game for Rutgers Sr. QB Teel who, with the help of this stud Jr. WR Kenny Britt, has 1290 YP & 13 TDP's the last 4 games. These two will crush Louisville's depleted secondary and UL has thrown in the towel for the year having lost the last 4 in a row. Cardinals giving up 14 turnovers the past 4 games and Rutgers zone blitzes will nail Louisville QB Cantwell. Get out the axe because Schiano and company had last week off to prepare. My POW.


Friday, December 5th

Ball St. -10.5 vs. Buffalo @ Detroit over 60

Initially, I liked Buffalo, but after some digging, I'm swaying to Ball St winnin... [More]

If I Were Going to Bet 11.25.08

I'm not going to play either, but if I was, I'd take Western Mich +10.5 & NIU -3

WMU has a fantastic QB named Tim Hiller who has 5 straight 300+ yards passing games. Hiller also leads the MAC with 33 tdp's & just 6 int's. As a rule, anytime you get double digits with a proficient passing attack team, you should go with it. These types of people can get you a back door cover, get you back in the game, keep it close, or run away and hide.  In this case, add into the equation that WMU still can win the MAC West and we should see an all out effort. Keep your eye on this WR Jamarko Simmons - he's very talented with 92 receptions so far this year. For all you that I've chatted with, I'm certain you know I am about 1/3rd black and for the life of me, I cannot figure out how my people can come up with these names.. "Jamarko?"

N. Illinois - Northern reaches win number 7 and that'll get them into a decent bowl game. That, along with national TV should have these guys prepped and ready to kill. Normal 0 MicrosoftInternetExplorer4 st1\:*{behavior:url(#ieooui) } /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-para-margin:0in; mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:10.0pt; font-family:... [More]

Plays for we Dec. 1, 2008

I'm just about done for the year and I want to thank all of you for your encouragement and insight in my first year on Covers.com. There are a few weeks left where I'll play mildly, but for the most part, I'm done.  It's been a profitable football season, though I didn't knock the cover off of the ball. I can still walk away in the black.

Due to so much going on behind the scenes, and prima donna's in all pro sports, I tend to tread lightly in playing any of them with the exception of MLB. I guess I'm still naive' enough to think that in NCAA football, the players are laying it out there every week to chase the NFL dream, for the glory of their school, and for the media recognition - also for the few, the Heismann.

From my experience running a good sized book, I don't bet basketball. My partner and I would get beat in Baseball, make good money on Football, but rake in the dough with both arms during Basketball season. Anyone that bet the NHL was a loser in the overall season also. That sport is truly slanted to the book.

Funny enough, one guy that was a client, signed up with Jim Feist for basketball and he drummed us that year. Believe it or not, Feist had a very good year. The next year, he signed up with Feist again and we got our money back +++ - he buried my client... nothing you ever want to happen to your bettors.

I'll tell you a couple more stories that was interesting. We had a dentist that wouldn't lay a bet all season ... [More]

NFL POW 11/23/08

Tennessee -5

As you know,Titans have won all of their games, and covered all but 1, I think (correct me if I'm wrong). This game sets up perfectly for a blowout. Jets with a suspect D will allow Collins to have a fundamentally solid day after getting 3TDP last week. I've noticed marked improvement and self confidence in Collins every week since he took over for Vince Young.

Meanwhile, Jets will be forced to go to the pass since they'll have very little success on the ground with Albert Haynesworth & co. When you force Favre to pass, it's a crap shoot what he's going to do. This guy can go from hero to goat in about 20 seconds. So, I'll put my faith in Tennessee's D only allowing 13 ppg this year, and watch Jerome Kearse get in Favre's face when he drops back in the pocket.

Saturday November 22nd Part Deux

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You'll notice on these plays, that I've chosen to go against most of the current lame duck coaches with the exception of Wash v Wash St. - what a pathetic game that'll be.

I'm not going to bet ecery one of these, but this is what I do like:

Ga. Tech -3.5 vs. Miami...  Hurricanes have won 5 straight, and interestingly enough, they've held their opponents to just 7 points & 139 total yards during the third quarter of those games. Miami’s offense has been marginal only putting up 315 ypg and seemingly they're  doing just enough to get by. On the flip side,
Georgia Tech has a  tough-to-prepare-for option attack with this soph RB Dwyer getting 1056 YR on 6.6 ypc. Yellow Jackets’ DL is playing top-notch, and HC
Johnson will probably have some surprises in store for RS frosh Cane QB Marve who is having a lame year sporting 10 ints and only 7 TD... [More]

MY DUAL POW

I'm posting this now because I'm leery of these two lines moving in an unfavorable direction. BTW, you may want to consider parlaying or teasing these two. Personally, I never parlay because I rarely win the damn things. It must be some Romanian curse - the two will win, but if I make them co-dependant, the gypsy curse will strike

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Virginia +3 vs. Clemson

 

I suppose having Virginia lose its last two games, after peeling off 4 wins in a row, gives  the reason Clemson is the favorite in this game. As far as power ratings go, Clemson is an 8, and Va. a 9 at home. (the lower the number the better in this case) Clemson coach Swinney, who took over for the October 18th game, has this team, during his tenure, with a L-W-L-W record. So if you follow that pattern, they’re in for a loss – not very good logic!  Both teams need a V to become bowl eligible. Clemson 1-2 on the road and Virginia 4-2 at home. Virginia is probably viewing this as very much a “must win” game because they travel for their final game to Va. Tech where, based on Va. Tech's play of late, they'll get their asses whooped. Conversely, Clemson returns home to face 5-5 and very marginal Duke and may not give 100% knowing the game may not mean much in the grand scheme. Virginia with the extra week of prep time will be highly focused on this victory. POW #1 Baby[More]

MY ANGLE THIS WEEK

Please do comment on this. I'd like to know, by and large, if my thinking is on the right track.

I'm betting against the lame duck coaches...Tennessee, Toledo, Kansas State and Washington. I'm also throwing Tuberville in the mix because I believe his demise is coming soon. It's become obvious that the players at these schools haven't adopted the "sending the coach out in style" mentality.

Now, conversely, I believe the coaches who are a part of the rumor mill will have their players stepping up in an attempt to keep them. Therefore I'll probably look favorably at betting with these guys. Duke's David Cutcliffe has already said he isn't interested in a return to Tennessee. North Carolina's Butch Davis has said he's not looking to move from Chapel Hill, but could certainly parlay interest from elsewhere into a better deal with the Tar Heels. The new name du jour is Texas Tech's Mike Leach, who didn't get all of the contract enhancements he was looking for from AD Gerald Myers last year, but figures to be able to write his own ticket (Tennessee, perhaps?) after this season. At the least, Leach can expect a big pay bump in Lubbock. Missouri's Gary Pinkel (already rumored at Washington, where he coached under Don James), TCU's Gary Patterson, Cincinnati's Brian Kelly, Ball State's Brady Hoke, Buffalo's Turner Gi... [More]

Notre Dame vs. Boston College

Probably not the best logic for liking ND, but they played North Carolina tough at NC losing in the latter part of 4th Q 29-24 while BC lost there 49-24

ND +3.5

Saturday November 8th.

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This is a bizarre analogy, but if Wisky is a 9.5 point fave at Indy, shouldn't tOSU be more like 15 points or so at Northwestern? tOSU  “D” allowed just 23 total pts. last 3 games and they’re coming off of a bye week. Focus Focus Focus.

Ga. Tech +3.5 If QB Nesbitt is in. Head Coach Johnson a road warrior going 18-5 last 23 getting points. Tar Heels have nation leading 17 int’s, but they’re probably going to see 60 minutes of running the ball. The question is whether young NC D can handle a full 60 minutes of Ga Tech’s relentless ground attack.

UVA +3.5 - RB Peerman one helluva weapon for Cav's - 523 YR, 26 catches and 6 TD's in last 5 games. Miami snapped VA’s 4 game win streak in an OT home loss while Wake had fits with Duke going to OT in Winston Salem last week. This is probably not the way to extrapolate this, but when  Miami played at Duke, the 'Canes beat them 49-31.

So. Carolina -13.5 see Dr. Bob below

Boise -35 li... [More]

Saturday, November 8, 2008

This is from Dr. Bob. Whomever he is. A friend of mine sent it to me.


3 Star Selection
***SOUTH CAROLINA (-12.0) 34 Arkansas 10
10:00 AM Pacific, 08-Nov-08
Arkansas has improved since the early season under new coach Bobby Petrino, but the Razorbacks are still not close to South Carolina in terms of talent and the Hogs’ upset win over Tulsa last week sets them up in a very negative 15-55 ATS road letdown situation. Arkansas also applies to a negative 52-130-1 ATS situation that is completely different from the other angle. The situations combine to give South Carolina a 60% chance of covering the spread at a fair line, but I’d be playing the Gamecocks even if there were no favorable situations. South Carolina has one of the top defensive units in the nation, allowing 4.3 yards per play to a schedule of teams that would combine to average 5.8 yppl against an average team and that unit has a huge advantage over an Arkansas attack that is just 0.3 yppl better than average for the season with starting quarterback Casey Dick in the game (5.7 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team). Arkansas’ defense is average against both the run and the pass and the Hogs rate as 0.1 yppl better than average overall (5.7 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.8 yppl). That unit matches up pretty evenly against a mediocre South Carolina offense that I rate as average with current personnel. The Gamecocks are actual... [More]

MY POW

I'm posting this early because it is my belief the public will run the line up before the game

Alabama -3.5

My sister does a TV show in Tuscaloosa and when she interviewed Saban earlier in the year, he told her in his mind the LSU game was as big to him as Michigan/Ohio State. When yuo hear him say "this game is not abuot me" you know that's utter poo-poo.

'Bama the much better team here. Tiger stadium always a tough place to win, but imho, there is such a talent disparity between these two that I believe this will be a blowout. Tide QB Wilson completing 61% of his passes with only 4 int's this season. Alabama's running game outstanding 202 ypg with 22 TD's while their defense has been incredible allowing only 2.2 ypc and 1 TD on the ground.This NT Cody having a monster year. Conversely, LSU QB J. Lee for lack of a better term, sucks. This year he's thrown 10 int's and 5 of those have been returned for TD's. Tiger's missing their leadership in the defensive backfield from last year and their D has an SEC low 8 takeaways. If I had to guess, and this game were played on a neutral field, Alabama would be a 10 point fave...

Toledo at Akron

I'm taking Akron -6.5 tonight. Toledo forcing out Amstutz leads me to believe they're going to pack it in for the season. The Rockets have played 15 true freshman (4th most in the nation) and their offense has been more than anemic - just 12ppg their last 5 games while their defense has allowed 32ppg during that same time span. Meanwhile this is the first game for Akron in 18 days - plenty of time to get their veteran OL refreshed giving this horse for a RB Dennis Kennedy plenty of openings and also allowing QB Chris Jacquemain (204 yards passing per game) time to pick Toledo's defensive backs apart.

Saturday, November 1, 2008

I stared this week off terrible with the UC/So. Fla. game. I took SFla -2 and under 24 in 1/st half (1-0-1) and SoFla -3 & under 24.5 in 2nd half (0-0-1)

Today will be a better day....

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Bullish or Bearish tonight?

I'm taking So. Florida -2.5 with a very very small wager.

Both teams playing on just 5 days rest. Cincinnati 2nd string QB Tony Pike a gametime decision. Evidently he's suffered numbness in his left (non throwing) arm. If he's out, they'll bring in true Frosh Chazz Anderson. Even if he does go tonight, I'll still take the Bulls. IMHO, Pike will be playing with that numbness in the back of his mind waiting for the shoe to drop - that'll totally upset his focus and make him play tentative.

On the other side, USF in payback mode after lass years mess. They had 8 turnovers and a blocked punt returned for a TD. It appears that USF has played much tougher competition to date with Kansas, Pitt, NC State and Louisville, while UC having played Eastern Kentucky, Miami O, Marshall (which sure looked like a fixed game Tuesday night), Akron, Rutgers and got beat like a circus monkey 52-26 by Oklahoma. USF QB Grothe on fire last week completing  to 11 different receivers and putting up 344 yards passing while running it 10 times for 78 yards. 

I am taking this one in a very small because of these reasons: **Cincy 4-0 ats against USF.
**This is their 6th meeting with UC and they're up 3-2 having won won 3 of the last 4.
**Cincy D on a roll getting 10 sacks their last 3 games
** Cincinnati coach damn tough posting a 16-5 record thus far into his 2nd year.

HOWEVER... Bearcats being forced to play a 3rd string, Freshman QB, while the... [More]

Last Night

From what little I saw of last night's Houston/Marshall game, Houston looked like Big Brown in the Belmont - failed to fire. A rather inauspicious start to the week. I'll get it back.

Houston v Marshall Tuesday NCAA Football

After looking at this for awhile, I like Houston -7 and over 61 and I'm just about counting on Houston to get all 61 points.

Houston ranks second in the nation in passing (403 ypg), third in total offense (544 ypg), and 12th in scoring (39 ppg). Keenum, the Coog's QB, and the rest of his O, is leading the country with 408 YPG and this Freshman Beall has had over 100 yards rushing the last three games with 6.2 ypc.

On the opposite side, Marshall's O ranked dead last in C-USA with time of possession - 27 minutes, while on O their leading rusher Darius Marshall hasn't scored a TD in three games and in those three games he has only rushed for 45, 19 & 35 yards respectively. In addition, the Herd only averaging 128 yards rushing per game.

10 days ago, Marshall loses to a rotten team in UAB (2-6) by a score of 23-21 while 20 days ago Houston crushed UAB 45-20.

This isn't a strong play for me, and thinking thru the total, IMHO, 61 wasn't a number I could go under with due to the fact that I believe Houston may score damn near that much.

Weekly Wrap

I certainly started slow this weekend, but ended up making a nice profit.

In college:

Losers:
San Jose State
Northwestern
Vandy
UCLA
Miami O

Winners:
Minnesota
Wisky
OK State
Penn State
Notre Dame
Tulsa - my college play of the week

So, I went 7-5, but I took my profits from the early games and Baseball profits and laid it all on Tulsa

In Pros:

Losers:
Tampa
Atlanta

Winners:
Baltimore - Pro Play of the Week
Miami
Washington
Houston

and I posted in another thread Tennessee-4

So, in pros I went 5-2, giving the weekend total to 11-7





... [More]

75%

Someone wrote here today that if you fade the public where they're betting to the tune of 75% or better on one play, it's turning out to be a big winning system. If that's the case, you're plays for today will be:

Oakland +7.5
New Orleans +3
Miami +1
Dallas ML -130
Dallas/Tampa under 40.5
Arizona +4.5
Arizona/Carolina under 43
Detroit +7.5
Jacksonville ML -310
Pitt ML -140
Pitt/NYGiants under 42
SF ML -230
Houston ML - 360
Tennessee ML -200
Tennessee/Indy under 40

Information from: http://www.sports.com/sportsbook/liveodds.php

BTW

Saturday Update

I'm having a real suck day so far.

San Jose gets trashed last night, Northwestern loses outright to an awful IU team, Minnesota get's there vs. Purdue, Wisky covered vs. Illinois, Vandy loses outright to Duke of all teams, UCLA can't stay within 17.5 of Cal, and Miami O gets their hat handed to them. Thankfully I unloaded on OK State as I said I loved that play, but it wasn't enough to get  me back to even. Hopefully I'll close out well with Penn St., Notre Dame, and my POW on Tulsa. I also took Alabama -5 for tonight. I figured all of this trash I heard on ESPN today about Tennessee being ready caused me to step up on the Tide.

Sunday NFL October 26th, 2008

NFL Sunday

I don't care to watch the NFL as much as college because of its chronic amount of commercials and some really bad announcers. But, being a degenerate gambler, I love the action. So,here goes:

Baltimore -7 at home vs. Oakland (NFL Play O' The Week)

I'm certainly expecting Ray Lewis & the rest of Raven D to get inside the head of rookie QB Russell this week and make this real ugly for Oakland. Rookie QB Flacco of Baltimore coming around nicely for HC Harbaugh thus far. Ravens 2-1 at home with their only loss a killer 13-10 defeat to Tennessee and we all know Oakland's not-so-rosy year gives a clear advantage to the Ravens.

Miami +1.5 at home vs. Buffalo

I love home dogs in the NFL. Home teams with the number "1" in the spread are a 60+% winner ( taken from The Gold Sheet last year). Bufalo not trustworthy on the road and with their OL Fowler out or gimpy, and Marshawn Lynch yet to get 100 yards in a game, should keep the Fish in this game. Pennington with a 75% completion rate, and Buffalo, imho, not the pressure D needed, should be able to keep Miami at bay.

Tampa +1.5 at Dallas and under 40.5

The number flies in the face of what I just said. BUT,with no Tony Romo, Dallas could o... [More]