gfoss59's Blog

Posted Saturday, August 08, 2009 01:29 AM

Runline discussion thread - Saturday 07 Aug 09

Well, the "system" some have asked us to track -- which coincided with our favorite runline of the day, Lincecum and the Giants -- looks as though it had a losing day, making it 4-3.

In general, I always believe in handicapping the games as well as relying on something like that -- but in this case, it made no difference anyway.

There are some games that look promising for Saturday -- as always, the following are not picks, but ideas or "leans" to promote discussion. 




Posted Friday, August 07, 2009 01:38 AM

Runline discussion thread - Friday 07 Aug 09

Phillies cover; Yankees cover --

on to Friday...





Posted Wednesday, August 05, 2009 11:31 PM

Runline discussion thread - Thursday 06 Aug 09


Looks like a good day for Wednesday -- Tigers covered...  making "the August system" (suggested by someone else, but I know some of us follow it) 4-2 as I've implemented it.

There's a tie for the biggest faves -- Yankees and Phillies at home.  Make of it what you will; I prefer to handicap both games before committing. 

With (note) lots of early games, we're on to Thursday --



Posted Tuesday, August 04, 2009 11:35 PM

Runline discussion thread - Wednesday 05 Aug 09


Gentlemen, start your engines.  It's almost Wednesday...



Posted Saturday, August 01, 2009 09:33 PM

5 Inning Discussion Thread - SUNDAY 8-2-09


Later on Saturday or early Sunday morning, Key Element and/or Goalline Bob may post their own thread, and it's always excellent

(Click their name above to see if you can find the thread.)

In the meantime, here's some things I think are worth looking at, for those of you who like to look ahead (as do I) --

and so, realizing that most of Sunday's games are early... 

Off we go.....



Posted Saturday, August 01, 2009 09:24 PM

Runline discussio thread - Sunday, 02 August 09

On to Saturday, with a reminder or two:

1. Please focus on runline propositions and why you think a game is a good runline proposition...  why the game will cover -1 1/2, as opposed to why you like the game in general. 

2. The items on the next post are not picks, yet, but plays -- picks I think we should look at -- for the sage participants to discuss.  "All of us are smarter than any of us," but we're a lot smarter still if we bring some analysis to bear.


Substantive comments will receive a substantive reply -- "All of us are smarter than any of us."




Posted Saturday, August 01, 2009 12:01 AM

5 Inning discussion thread for Saturday, 01 August 09


Later on Friday or on Saturday morning, Key Element and/or Goalline Bob will post their own thread, and it's always excellent. 

(Click their name above to see if you can find the thread.)

In the meantime, here's some things I think are worth looking at, for those of you who like to look ahead (as do I) --


Beckett-Bosox vs.Hernandez-Balt. -- Beckett less effective on the road, but he's done well against and at Baltimore.  Also worth runline consideration, for 5 or 9 -- Red Sox excellent at the runline cover when Beckett wins on the road (6-1 or 7-1; I need to double check.) 

Burnett-Yanks vs. Danks-Chisox -- both pitchers throwing well of late, so the under tempts.  But the Yanks do love lefties, even on the road:  6.6 runs per 9i away from Yankee Stadium.  Yanks.

Niemann-Tampa vs. Chen-KC -- Hate to keep pressing my luck on Tampa, which wasn't hitting very well until last night...  but Chen is a pitching mismatch.  By the way, with heavy favorites like this, we always recommend considering the runline, for 5 innings (-0.5) or for 9 (-1.5) -- no point in making a bet that has to hit four of five times to make a slim profit -- especially in baseball.

Jiminez-Rockies vs. Bailey-Reds -- This is a pretty wide pitching mismatch.  It's daunting to think the Reds are going to lose yet another home game.  The main doubt for a runline proposition is whether the Rockies can... [More]

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