The greatest regular season QB ever, Payton

So our friend Skip Bayless calls Patyon Manning...

... and so he remains, now 9-11 all time in the playoffs.

Was he horrible?  Are we pinning this loss wholly on him?

No, of course not.

But after much hullaballoo and chest-thumping by Bronco fans, the fact remains that Payton Manning has a talent for putting up huge stats, going 12-4 or 13-3...

and losing early in the playoffs.

At mideseason, we wrote a blog item speculating that it looked like the Colts made a good move in letting Manning go.  We took a lot of flack for that.

Now, despite an impressive run from October to December, the Broncos are going home. 

We have no apologies, and, indeed, stand willing to accept them.

Best play this week: Falcons -1

The Seattle Seahawks have finally beaten a healthy (mostly) quality team on the road -- a big step, and bully for them.

But with all the motivation the Atlanta Falcons have, and the home field advantage, we think the 1-point line on this week's game is far too low.

Hard to picture the Falcons going all the way this year, but also hard to picture them getting beaten by the travel-weary Seahawks on Sunday. 

And that narrow spread makes this the best NFL play of the divisional weekend. 

"Record Braking" - Dickerson roots vs. AP

There's something laudable about Eric Dickerson's statement that he'd prefer not to see his single-season rushing record broken by Adrian Peterson.

(And mind you, we're rooting for AP for MVP -- and will make a statistical case for that in a few days.)

Granted, it's politically incorrect.  Maybe that's part of the charm.

Or perhaps it's that we've always suspected many athletes who claim they're rooting for the new guy seem to protest a bit too much.

There's none of the insincerity in Dickerson's stand on the matter -- but at the same time, no malice or personal detraction.

“I don’t want him to break it,” Dickerson said last week. “I’ll be honest. I don’t want to see it.  (http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/12/13/eric-dickerson-doesnt-want-adrian-peterson-to-break-his-record/)

"Adrian is a class guy...  but I like having the record."

Can't say we're rooting for him to keep it, but somehow, we like Dickerson's candor a lot more than the usual pieties.

Lions and Falcons and Squares (oh my)

One of the more interesting contra-CW calls we've seen in a while is LeagueCapper's post this week arguing for taking the Lions +4 points against the Giant-slayer Atlanta Falcons (in Detroit.)

Here's the link, which -- sorry -- you have to cut and paste:
http://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=21&sub=101509391&page=1

(You know how to cut and paste, dontcha, Sam?)

I agree with most everything the skeptics are saying in response...  it's so hard to picture the Falcons losing, or winning by a handful, against the woeful Lions.

On the other hand, as a Packer fan, I've seen just how talented this team is -- how the Lions, through bone-headed penalties and muffed review flag tosses, manage to give away games (wins and losses, not ATSs) -- usually by thin margins.

And there is, as one poster observed, something "square," in the 1960s sense of the word, in taking the Falcons this week.

Let's look at the Lions at home this season:

Date vs. Score Line O/U 09/09/12 STL W 27-23 L -9 O 46 09/30/12 ... [More]

"Pound the Lions" vs. Falcons

Hard to believe, but some great stats from our friend LeagueCapper make the contrarian case, here:

http://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=21&sub=101509391

Power Rankings - responding to Teddy

NFL Power Rankings -- our top 10 responses
Current Rank Last Week Change Team W-L-T
(ATS) Power Rating Team Comments 1 2 1 11-3-0
(8-6-0) -7.5 Denver
Nine straight wins, all by a TD or more. A defense that's starting to dominate games. A balanced attack that's scored 30-plus nine times this year. Yep, Denver is No. 1.  Comment:  Hard to say given weak division.  Might be #1, but hard to know that.
2 1 1 10-4-0
(8-6-0) -7.0 New England
The Patriots offense will get even more dangerous if Pro Bowl tight end Rob Gronkowski can return to the lineup this week following a four-game absence.  Gronk not just a plus, but essential for Pats.  Coaching puts them up at #2 or even #1.  
3 3 ... [More]

Broncos 3-3, Colts 3-3. Hmmm.

No one else is comparing them, so we will: 

The Colts, who made a controversial decision to release Payton Manning, "the greatest regular season quarterback in history," last year, are 3-3.

The Broncos, who brilliantly outbid several other competitors for Manning's services, are also 3-3. 

(So, by the way, are the Miami Dolphins. The Seahawks, 49ers, and Arizona Cardinals, other losers in the Manning sweepstakes, are 4-3, 5-2, and 4-3, respectively.)

We weren't shocked at Manning's slow start, as indicated by our piece days after he was signed.

Nor are we shocked that, even at 3-3, he and the Broncos are in the running in the AFC West, "the new NFC West." 

And, of course, there are many other positions on all these teams.

Still, it's striking that, at least so far, there appears to be more to winning in the NFL than signing up a star quarterback, running a few 7 on 7 drills, and slinging the ball around the field. 

The Broncos are on line for, at best, a weak playoff entrance and an early exit, for a year or two, while the Colts are already "up" to mediocre, and have positioned themselves well for the next 10-15 years or more.

Former Colts stampede to Denver -- NOT !

Further on our immediate prediction ("Denver won't even win AFC West"):

Has anyone else noticed that the Payton-Manning-as-Moses story, leading a diaspora of former Colts stars to the promised land in Denver has, well, em, failed totally to materialize?

Reggie Wayne and Pierre Garcon signed with days of the Manning-ful Mystery Tour's launch, both in cities they knew were off his list when they did.

What's most notable is, they didn't even wait a few days to see where Payton was going.

Now, Jeff Saturday, courted by Denver and Green Bay....  goes to Green Bay, not to join Payton on Broncoland.

We've always regarded Payton Manning as a whining, narcissistic, carping guy who throws his own teammates under the bus. (One of dozens of clips plays over and over now on the NFL network.)

Those who doubt this view are entitled to their opinion, but evidently, it's one not shared by those who know Payton Manning best.

The Colts are voting with their feet to confirm our view -- that stampede you hear isn't towards reuniting with Mr. Regular Season...  it's away. 

Bountygate: No, the coverup wasn't worse

"For the Saints, the coverup was worse than the bounty program."

Press types, who haven't had an investigative coup since Watergate, love to say things like that.  But is it really true?

It's bad to lie about something, to be sure.  But what's worse...  lying about trying to hurt someone, or trying to hurt someone?

If I were the one being targeted by a 300-pound monster, I'll tell you honestly, I'd rather he tell a lie than try to rip my head off.

So, yah, covering up the bounty program after 2009 was bad; lying about it even in recent months was bad too.

But the worst thing was continuing the program, and starting it in the first place.  

Sports commentators love to say things like "the cover up was worse" because it's a time-worn truism that doesn't require any work.

Their laziness is a bad thing too.

Yet it's hardly the worst thing they do.